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Rob

Tropical Storm Henri

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Henri has just formed in the Atlantic, could take a US impact course this time? But will it be yet another blowout.

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Indeed, invest 91L has slowly grown in organisation despite the shear and has been classified as Tropical Storm Henri, with intensity at 35kts. Most of the convection is displaced east of the well defined LLC. Shear is around 25-30kts which is not conducive for development. As such, the NHC do not expect Henri to survive for more than 48hrs and based on the environment ahead, I would be inclined to agree. As we all know though, tropical cyclones can surprise us so we will have to wait and see how well Henri puts up with the shear. Shear is lower near the Bahamas at present but Henri is unlikely to make it that far.

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definately one to watch then, its likely he will be gone by Thursday, but like you said Storms do suprise up, even if he dissapates to a low, he could always regenerate, like Ana who was in a similar location earlier this season.

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Henri managed to attain a peak intensity of 45kts in the face of the shear this morning but has since weakened back to 40. Persistant, strong southwesterly shear has stripped the convection away from the LLC. The strong southwesterly shear is expected to be replaced by even stronger northeasterly shear later tomorrow which will likely destroy Henri. It's really difficult seeing Henri survive the extremley hostile environment ahead. Dissipation will likely occur within 48hrs.

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