Tropical Storm Grace

[The PIT]

Come on guys you're asleep on the watch.

http://wxforecasts.com/ameriwx/ameriwx.php?&forecast=plotsystemtrack&storms=&usemap=AUTO2&zoom=1&region=NT&year=2009&eventnum=9&hwvstormid=9&size=&usemap=AUTO2&config=tropsys640x280

I'll be interested in your views as I know very little about tropical storms or Hurricanes.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/023613.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

Edited October 5, 2009 by The PIT

[Iceberg]

I am sure some friendly MOD will explain and move it over.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/57063-intense-surface-low/page__st__17

[M'Lady]

We already have a thread on this, so I'll merge them... please talk amongst yourselves while you wait..

[Cookie]

Thanks M'lday that's better

not something you see everyday

The general synopsis at 0700

Low just west of Rockall 998 expected Faeroes 982 by 0700 tomorrow. Tropical storm grace moving steadily northeast expected Sole 988 by same time. Low Biscay 1002 losing its identity by that time

http://www.metoffice.com/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html?area=Sole&type=All

Edited October 5, 2009 by cookie

[Iceberg]

The appearance of an eye seems to have formed again.

UTC is the same as GMT so if you add 1 hr to the UTC time you get the our time of the image.(i.e 15 mins ago).

At least that is what I believe.

The first image from 13.15 shows an open eye.

The 14.30 image shows banding recuring around the NW quadrant.

Grace could have just successfully digested and coped with a mouthful of dry air, if she has then further intensification could be in the offering(for a very little while anyway)

[The PIT]

Sorry about duplicate threads but I did a scan in here for Grace and couldn't see one. So I made one.

Very interesting seemed to pop up out of nowhere and I wonder what effects this is going to have on the forecasts for Tuesday.

[maidstone weather]

Sorry about duplicate threads but I did a scan in here for Grace and couldn't see one. So I made one.

Very interesting seemed to pop up out of nowhere and I wonder what effects this is going to have on the forecasts for Tuesday.

I would imagine it was part of Tuesday's forecast from the start anyway? It just became recognised by the NHC as a tropical storm last night.

[A.J]

Yeah, I think things will still 'go along as planned' :lol: Alot of moisture will be thrown up across the Sern half of the UK tomorrow, so rainfall could become quite a feature in the next 48 hours.

my thoughts exactly......also with the tropical air associated with Grace interacting with the cooler air associated with the CF, could this trigger some rather beefy thunderstorms & tornadic activity...I'm just wondering with the contrasting air masses so dont laugh at this, its just a question not a suggestion

[Iceberg]

Latest Dvorak updates.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM

05/1200 UTC 44.3N 17.1W T3.5/3.5 GRACE

05/0545 UTC 41.9N 19.0W T2.5/2.5 GRACE

An increase from T2.5 to T3.5 but still a T rather than a TS making her tropical still in nature.

The next NHC discussion should be available in the next 20 mins, which might hint at the development of sub tropical charecteristics.

I should add this means that strengthening has occured in that 6 hr period and according to that she is a strong Tropical storm.

Edited October 5, 2009 by Iceberg

[Harry]

my thoughts exactly......also with the tropical air associated with Grace interacting with the cooler air associated with the CF, could this trigger some rather beefy thunderstorms & tornadic activity...I'm just wondering with the contrasting air masses so dont laugh at this, its just a question not a suggestion

IMO this is a bang on theory! A tropical storm with tropical air moving up from the South - meeting air being blasted out of Arctic regions...granted, it is not quite as simple as that, however the principle is there...

Nick Miller last night said there are many areas of LP in the play over the coming days, a LP (or now tropical/ex tropical storm) moving up from the south, with a N Atlantic LP moving in from the North. Nick Miller's thoughts were for the two air masses to combine, with a strong CF forming to clear all the muck out of the way by mid week!

I would think with tropical air being swept in from the Africas meeting cold air being pulled out of the Arctic is a recipe for some big events, including IMO some thunderstorms!!

[Iceberg]

Latest from NHC.

THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF GRACE HAS BEGUN TO DETERIORATE

SLIGHTLY...WITH THE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER

BECOMING LESS SYMMETRIC AND FRACTURED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS

LOWERED TO 55 KT ON THIS ADVISORY BASED ON TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL

CLASSIFICATIONS OF 3.5...AND A 0644 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS WHICH

SUPPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KT. ALSO...GRACE IS NOW

OVER WATER NEAR 18C...AND THIS IS LIKELY INHIBITING STRONG

CONVECTIVE MIXING OF WINDS TO THE SURFACE. SOME ADDITIONAL

WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE GLOBAL

MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT GRACE SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A FRONT JUST

SOUTHWEST OF IRELAND BY TUESDAY MORNING.

Basically they are going to stop monitoring Grace in 24 hrs as she will be part of an active cyclonic front(even though she will still be 50Kts in nature).

[londonsnow]

nice to see the british isles in an noaa headline!

000

WTNT34 KNHC 051445

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER 3

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092009

1100 AM AST MON OCT 05 2009

...GRACE RACING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE

BRITISH ISLES...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 16.4 WEST OR ABOUT 575

MILES...925 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CORK IRELAND...AND ABOUT 590 MILES...

950 KM....NORTHWEST OF LISBON PORTUGAL.

GRACE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 31 MPH...50 KM/HR.

THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...

WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT

DAY OR SO...AND GRACE SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A FRONT BY TUESDAY

MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110

KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...

LOCATION...45.4N 16.4W

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 31 MPH

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

500 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER BERG

[John Hanrahan]

nice to see the british isles in an noaa headline!

From my perspective its even more surprising to see Cork getting a mention.

[Tn9]

Still not bad for such cool sst,s,this is 3.00pm

[CardiffStorm]

Looking at the latest Sat. image shes near the North of France lattitude wise. The MetO havent said anything about her though which is a bit strange.

[The PIT]

Still holding in there and the eye maybe reforming looking at the latest radar. No mention of it on the national forecast perhaps afraid of another Michael Fish eh.

[Somerset Squall]

A very unusual formation indeed. And further northeast than Vince from 2005 too. Is it as record for the most northeasterly formation?

[The PIT]

A very unusual formation indeed. And further northeast than Vince from 2005 too. Is it as record for the most northeasterly formation?

Wait until the press get hold of it. Global warming melt down.

[Jack Wales]

Yes, this is a bizarre one, it reminds me of the mad hurricane season of a few years ago (2006?) From what I remember of the late cyclones which strayed over cool waters (Epsilon, Delta and Gamma possibly) is that for some reason they proved very resiliant to the adverse sst's and shear. I remember reading in awe the noaa reports which stated that they could find "no reasons for those tropical cyclones continued existence" and that they had "run out of things to say". If grace can hang on for another 36 hours it would be great to have a landfall situation in the UK!

Wait until the press get hold of it. Global warming melt down.

The express will love it!!!

[ANYWEATHER]

Still not looking to bad at all with some nice tight circulation and something of an "EYE" showing on the infrared sat at 6pm!

[CardiffStorm]

No mention of it on the national forecast perhaps afraid of another Michael Fish eh.

Yes, I suppose the Met Office have to think of PR now almost before weather.

Its going to be interesting to see how it develops overnight and how long it takes before the Met Office mentions it, if at all.

[CardiffStorm]

What is there to mention? It's a tropical storm, which will disapate and become ex-tropical as it nears the UK by which time it'll just be an ordinary LP system. A BBC forecaster has already mentioned, briefly, that the heavy rain and moisture for the next 48 hours will be have been part of an 'ex-tropical storm' from the SW.

Its a very rare event, just thought that the world leaders in meteorology might mention it.

[ANYWEATHER]

What is there to mention? It's a tropical storm, which will disapate and become ex-tropical as it nears the UK by which time it'll just be an ordinary LP system. A BBC forecaster has already mentioned, briefly, that the heavy rain and moisture for the next 48 hours will be have been part of an 'ex-tropical storm' from the SW.

Well the Metoffice was surprised at the development of this feature[not to mention everyone else in the weather world and take a look at the sat pic and see if its looks unusual?] and its still intact to the southwest of the Uk.. Lets see what happens...

Edited October 5, 2009 by ANYWEATHER

[The PIT]

Its a very rare event, just thought that the world leaders in meteorology might mention it.

Which is why it was worthy of a mention. Not even on the pressure charts.

[James M]

Very surprised when I heard this popped up this morning, it will be interesting to see what happens from here, just goes to show we've still got a lot to learn about the weather.