Convective/Storm Discussion

[Lewis]

There's been 3 torrential downpours in the last hour.Absolutely hammering down now

It's that bad here that the cars are coming to a standstill on the main road :unsure:

Hugh flash of lightning this is awesome

More on the way mate, CAPE is very nice and with the approaching band, theres some lovely moist air in the fooker. I can hear your storms on the south bank rumbling away

[CardiffStorm]

just got home from work and would I be right in saying many of the predictions have been correct.

Anyone know if the Tornado warnings were correct?

just got home from work and would I be right in saying many of the predictions have been correct?

Anyone know if the Tornado warnings were correct?

[Harry]

Dead quiet here at the moment - the finest of water particles in a light breeze.

Still very warm and humid here - currently 18C with a low of 16C expected! Compare that to OC forecast in Scotland, and low single figures generally across the North, that is a pretty strong contrast!

Am praying we might get something in the form of thunder activity in the next 24 hours, maybe as the CF clears through tomorrow - but am not overly optimistic!

[sunny scunny]

More on the way mate, CAPE is very nice and with the approaching band, theres some lovely moist air in the fooker. I can hear your storms on the south bank rumbling away

Yep heavy rain again, and it should reach your area very soon

[Lewis]

Dead quiet here at the moment - the finest of water particles in a light breeze.

Still very warm and humid here - currently 18C with a low of 16C expected! Compare that to OC forecast in Scotland, and low single figures generally across the North, that is a pretty strong contrast!

Am praying we might get something in the form of thunder activity in the next 24 hours, maybe as the CF clears through tomorrow - but am not overly optimistic!

Should move to Hull, past few years i have done very well with storms, well saying that i always do well.

Yep heavy rain again, and it should reach your area very soon

just had another 2 brief torrential downpours, it's uneblievable just how much saturation there is.

[Harry]

Should move to Hull, past few years i have done very well with storms, well saying that i always do well.

just had another 2 brief torrential downpours, it's uneblievable just how much saturation there is.

Dont get me wrong, I havent exactly done badly for storms - just they seem to come like buses really - last proper storm I had was the best part of 2 months ago...April v bad, May none, June and July loads, Aug/Sept/Oct so far, none.

Will prob never move from Kent to be honest - of all the storms we get I do love the imports - in fact I'd trade one good import for 5 home growns anyday.

Still - fat lady hasnt sung yet - certainly some more rain (potentially v heavy) to come yet! That CF could be interesting as it comes through too - fingers crossed.

Edited October 6, 2009 by Harry

[A.J]

evening all....the remains of TS Grace moving into Wales now, showing up nicely on infra-red...heading in a line right towards....my house!...lol....could be an interesting night ahead!

Edited October 6, 2009 by ajpoolshark

[Costa Del Fal]

That will be another storm to put down in your signature 'Oct 6th - tropical storm Grace'

The rain is almost nothing compared t how heavy it was for parts of the North earlier. Everytime this happens for us.

[Stuart]

not to worry i not seen anything up here for a long time now

[Lincs Observation]

Evening all

had a thunderstorm around 20.00, while i was trying to watch holby city grrrrrrrr, rain came down like stairrods something i have not seen in months here in lincs, all quietening down now as the front moves through.

Looks like south Wales are getting a pasting anyone from down there give us an update.

LO

[TonyH]

Grace is giving a very wet evening here, 14mm in the past 3 hours, and 27mm past 18 hours. Could end up with more in 24 hours than in the whole of September (39mm) if it lasts a few more hours.

[Phil UK]

A very wet night indeed for some it seems. This is the most appreciable and prolonged spell of rain I have seen since 3rd September so the gardens and reservoirs will welcome it. Currently lashing it down over here in Solihull as I type.

If anything, it looks like the main area of rain in areas, (South Wales for example) is intensifying and expanding.

Have to say, and I know this has been discussed elsewhere but I can't ever recall seeing a small (now ex) tropical storm so close to and in such definition so near to the British Isles.

Phil.

Edited October 6, 2009 by Phil UK

[maidstone weather]

haha it dies to drizzle by the time it reach Norfolk!

[Coast]

Another rainy day today, torrential in places by the sounds of it. ESTOFEX have a level 1 just over the Channel and a watch area in my bit of the World:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Wed 07 Oct 2009 06:00 to Thu 08 Oct 2009 06:00 UTC

Issued: Tue 06 Oct 2009 22:33

Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for Portugal and Western Spain mainly for tornadoes, excessive precipitation and to lesser extent severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for Northwestern France and Belgium mainly for tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

A complex scenario will evolve during the forecast period with a trough over the Eastern Atlantic and a broad cyclonic vortex over northern Europe. Around this vortex, strong mid-level jet is rotating with two jet-streaks developing embedded in it. The first one will result in a cyclogenesis over Finland and far NW Russia, namely Kola penninsula. The second jet-streak will curve around a short wave trough which will affect northern part of the British Isles during Wednesday evening and night hours. In the meantime a ridge stretching over the Central Mediterranean will move eastwards, weakening.

At the surface a very moist and warm airmass is spreading over Western and Central Europe behind the warm front, which will reach Ukraine and Belarus by Wednesday morning. Deep low pressure system will track across Central Scandinavia to Kola penninsula by the end of the forecast period with surface pressure at its center below 976 hPa. Another surface low is tied to the cold front, stretching from Northern Europe to Iberia penninsula, providing the front a wavy structure.

DISCUSSION

.. NW France, Belgium...

Surface observations show that very humid airmass with dewpoint depressions less than 5°C has overspread the area as the surface low and associated cold front approach. A low-end instability release is expected with GFS and ECMWF expecting several hundred J/kg of MLCAPE over the region. Close to the cold front, storms are expected to initiate. This front should attain a wavy characteristic with one of the waves reaching the area with shallow surface low. This will cause backing low-level winds and enhance the SREH values. At the same time, LLS values will increase to about 10 m/s. Detrimental factor should be only weak to moderate DLS, perhaps limiting the chance of storms to become supercellular. Another questionable issue is the track of the frontal wave and a degree of instability. If storms manage to form in the region, with moist airmass - low LCLs and enhanced shear at lower levels, tornado threat can not be ruled out and a Level 1 seems to be warranted. Copious amounts of precipitation might fall, especially to the northwest of the frontal wave, but most of it should be of stratiform nature and therefore the threat is not included in this forecast

TORRO and UKASF have no watches or forecasts out this morning, here are some of the applicable charts:

All the action just over the other side of the Channel again today, but take a raincoat and umbrella when you collect the kids from school!

[Paul]

Certainly very wet in the south today, storms unlikely though I'd think. 24 hour forecast rainfall totals to 3am tomorrow:

[Paul Sherman]

Not often you see the Bullseye over SE Essex like that, lets see if it actually happens After only 3/4 Inch in 2 and a half months we could treble that in just 1 day - Madness LOL

Paul S

[Harry]

Certainly very wet in the south today, storms unlikely though I'd think. 24 hour forecast rainfall totals to 3am tomorrow:

Well helloooo! I like the look of this model! Takes the heaviest and most persistent stuff pretty much right over me

You can tell however that the CF is progressing through - quite extraordinary in fact. Last night at 10.30 I was outside in shorts and a t-shirt and felt fine - it was so warm and humid it could have been the middle of summer (except for the darkness of course)...this morning, I left my partner's at 6.45pm again in t-shirt and shorts, 17C, lovely! On the road into London, and the temperature dropped like a stone from 17C to 12C in the matter of a few miles and an hour or so time wise - feels really quite chilly now compared to just earlier this morning!!

If the surge of rainfall expected to move in is associated (presumably) with a warm and moist pool of air, could be interesting to see how it acts against the chillier air moving in from the North. Like Estofex predictions are indicating, I would expect the heaviest rain to be on the southern side of the band, therefore perhaps affecting N France and coastal areas here...that's my predicition anyway - I hope I am wrong and anything more interesting occurs a bit further north (i.e as per the model above)...wait and watch :lol:

[Paul]

6z run on the nmm just moves the heaviest rain a touch south, 24 hour accumulation shows the difference:

[Harry]

Seems like the timing of the CF has decreased the chances somewhat for storms over the SE, though the risk was quite slim to start with. A few days ago I thought today looked the better day of the two (Tuesday and Wednesday) as there was alot more CAPE over Nern most part of France, and into Sern counties and the SE. Plus the GFS at the time was showing nice moisture still present from the south westerly flow.

Now, the risk is from very heavy rainfall, should it reach far north enough to affect the SE.

And, may I add, the heavy rainfall predicted by the GFS for Sern counties and the SE was once predicted to affect mostly the Midlands. But, with each run it has moved more and more south, so I wouldn't be surprised if the heavy rainfall didn't affect much of the SE.

Unless there is a big eastward push, I think most of the SE could get some fairly decent accumulations this afternoon and evening. I think I may JUST be on the outside of the heaviest and most persistent rainfall, though should nevertheless get a fair bit. MetO have also stepped their Be Prepared warnings to cover all southern counties, though exc Greater London and Essex. I suspect that these two areas may be included shortly.

Despite the lack of sunshine, the timing of the rainfall arriving will mean that we'll be at the right time of day for any sferics - not expecting too many though (if any).

[Nick F]

That rainfall chart above puts me under the heaviest

Some sferics over Normandy atm, but that's where the instability looks to stay. Colder air undercutting here from the NE scouring away the warmth, it was 16.5C at 0500 now only 12.9C :unsure:

However relatively warmer moister Tm air is flooding NE above the colder air at the surface with heavy rainfall increasing through afternoon ...

[kold weather]

Looks like being a very wet day here in Chichester, rain seems to have arrived and I'd suspect will be here for quite a while as well as the front slides more to the east then north over the next 6hrs or so.

[Coast]

That rainfall chart above puts me under the heaviest

and me at work - it's starting to happen right now, gallons of it!!!! :unsure:

[SteveB]

All the forcasts and warnings were for rain to the South of me. On that basis I decided to walk to work this Morning.

As it is raining now & has been for the last couple of hours & looks like it's going to continue. I think I might get wet walking home later.

[Tommyboy2007]

Yes, I thought you might add that

but i haven't heard anyone else, forecasters included, say that.

Edited October 7, 2009 by Tommyboy2007

[Harry]

Looks like the south coast is experiencing some torrential rain, near to the IOW. Currently at 48-50mm per hour rainfall rates so alot of rain in a short space of time.

Note: This would be an example of 'thundery rain' - No thunder or lightning by the looks of things, but certainly intense rainfall, which you would usually experience in a thunderstorm. Thought I'd add that.

That is some pretty serious intensification of the 2nd batch of rainfall - really gathered and organised itself in the last 30 mins or so.

This is an example of thundery rain - without the thunder, lightning, sudden gusty winds and most likely hail also. Just thought I'd that also (though am hoping there will be some thunder, just to add)