Convective/Storm Discussion

[dogs32]

yes just noticed that big increase just off Cornwal

http://www.isleofwightweather.co.uk/live_storm_data.htm

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=

Edited November 13, 2009 by dogs32

[Neilsouth]

An intense line developing across the south , could be a squall line?

[dogs32]

An intense line developing across the south , could be a squall line?

yes nice line there.....could intensify and become electric later...well we can hope..

As the morning gone on there does seem to be more and more sferics

[Methuselah]

Why do i always get that from either staff or forecasters , yet the general view of my own family and normal members is different. I'm going to record these forecast's one day and actually prove it once and for all!

Hi Neil,

That could be because (as I have learned over the years) my-own locality isn't the entire UK? But, believe me, I've had my rants...Annual episodes of non-existent snow being the favourite!

[Coast]

TORRO have updated their forecast for this evening and early tomorrow, noting a serious risk of severe wind gusts across southern England, which maybe aided by convection.

Worth repeating here:

TORRO TORNADO WATCH 2009/009

A TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 13:20GMT on Friday 13th November 2009

Valid from/until: 13:20 - 14:00GMT on Friday 13th/Saturday 14th November 2009, for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Parts of (see map)

All of England and Wales S Scotland Eire N Ireland

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 80mph; hail to 15mm diameter; CG lightning

SYNOPSIS

Rapidly deepening low exhibiting warm-seclusion characteristics will push an active set of fronts across the British Isles today and tonight, and then an active occlusion/trough eastwards across southern parts tomorrow.

Convection is currently occurring in the strong warm advection regime near SW England, and will spread northwards this afternoon and evening across western parts. This brings the risk of strong winds and hail, and CG lightning, but also a slight risk of tornadoes - the risk extending along the south coast and perhaps into other areas of S England this afternoon along the northward moving front.

Overnight tonight a strong cold front will surge eastwards bringing squally wind gusts of up to 65mph inland and 70mph on the south coast, some aided by convection. In addition, a chance exists for a few tornadoes, perhaps strong. This risk is mainly for central and southern England and Wales.

Later tonight and through tomorrow morning, an active occlusion will be pushed eastwards across England and Wales, again especially across southern parts. Some severe convection may accompany this, bringing wind gusts of up to 80mph in exposed SW'ern parts, and 60-70mph elsewhere. A risk of tornadoes exists with this too, especially if convective lines develop.

The purple area on the WATCH map is the region deemed most at risk from severe winds - a dangerous situation as inland gusts this high are rare in southern Britain

.

I trust Paul Knightley's forecasts, we haven't had a purple box from them for ages - could be very interesting.....

[Neilsouth]

That squall line is coming through now , pretty intense too!

Hi Neil,

That could be because (as I have learned over the years) my-own locality isn't the entire UK? But, believe me, I've had my rants...Annual episodes of non-existent snow being the favourite!

hah that could well be true

[Devon-Nelly]

Just took the dogs out the wind is starting to pick up here and i swear i heard a rumble of thunder while i was out

Had nothing since but will be keeping my eyes peeled.

[Devon-Nelly]

Raining heavily with dark skies now

[coldfingers]

Earlier this lunchtime I kept seeing what I thought was flashes as I was washing up. Not sure if they were lightening though as I didn't hear any thunder. could perhaps have been the lights dipping when power lines touched in the high winds, although again I don't think so as the winds weren't that strong. A mystery.

Edited November 13, 2009 by coldfingers

[Tom Quintavalle]

Can confirm a rumble of thunder just before 3.00 p.m in Croydon this afternoon as what appeared to be a squall line moved NNE from the Sussex coast through Surrey.

Regards,

Tom.