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Harry

Convective/Storm Discussion

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Well well well...after the quiet and prolonged dry spell, October looks like starting on a very unsettled and very mixed start!!

The first of the two charts below is the FAX chart for Saturday - quite a vicious area of Low pressure, with a forecasted centre of 976mb could slam most areas of the UK over the weekend - at the same time focusing on the wind direction, could be the first proper cold blast of the autumnal period for all areas. Plenty of fronts too so some rain for most people, perhaps the first for the SE in AGES!

Looking ahead to Monday, there is a very different complexion on the FAX chart - that chart a month ago, may have brought a fair to decent risk of some storms! There is a storm risk associated with a strong, driving southerly, bringing far warmer air than we're likely to experience at the weekend! With this, the risk of some both persistent, but also a fairly decent risk of convective stuff too I'd have thought!

So, at a rough stab, I'd say some rain on the cards for all - a brief sharp taste of winter followed by rapidly rising temperatures to perhaps introduce a fleeting taste of summer (and again, I reckon a possibility of some storm activity).

Flu and all round illness I would anticipate would be on the cards also - warm followed by cold, followed by warm...not good!!

post-3790-12544187638267_thumb.png

post-3790-12544187729379_thumb.png

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Cool Harry! This may be my one and only last chance for a storm!smile.gif ( providing it heads up my way lol)

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The first of the two charts below is the FAX chart for Saturday - quite a vicious area of Low pressure, with a forecasted centre of 866mb could slam most areas of the UK over the weekend -

Good job I wasn't drinking coffee at the time when I read this part because I would choked on it and a jet of coffee spray all over my VDU

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Good job I wasn't drinking coffee at the time when I read this part because I would choked on it and a jet of coffee spray all over my VDU

yes can I urge everyone BEFORE they post, first to spell check their post, then to read it VERY carefully, that way, those of us inclined to mis spell etc, spot the worst of our errors.

Not just at our thread originator, everyone ME included.

note its been spell checked!

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And me, John. I've been known to make some howlers in my time, too...But 866mb really is the Day After Tomorrow!

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Like you Harry, I spotted Monday's potential last night. I doubt anything will happen, though perhaps the risk is greater where I am currently than back at home? Ah well, shall be an interesting weekend. :)

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yes can I urge everyone BEFORE they post, first to spell check their post, then to read it VERY carefully, that way, those of us inclined to mis spell etc, spot the worst of our errors.

Not just at our thread originator, everyone ME included.

note its been spell checked!

It's

Come on John! :)

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One does apologise...I was at work and typing fast, and as I am in the office I dont have time to post lengthy posts + cutting/pasting images + checking it for grammatical errors......

Those in the know would know 866mb is a typo - those not in the know, wouldnt know any different!

Anyhow - all updated and amended accordingly :)

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It's

Come on John! rofl.gif

grammatically it is (avoiding the naughty short version) a bit of a minefield-I favour the way I use it rather than your preference. I once had a very lengthy discussion with a senior lecturer in English grammar about this very topic..

It would seem its 50-50 with many on the Grammar side as to which to use?

No doubt you and other will disagree. But if anything else in my posts is(are) incorrect in grammar or spelling then please do point it out to me.

My point, as I'm sure you know, was to try and get us all to use spell check and to read what we post before we actually post it.

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and so the drought in the southeast continues - only a few days ago the Met Office were forecasting 'heavy rain' for the SE on Saturday, that was then downgraded to 'light rain' and now it looks nothing more than a few spots of drizzle!:good:

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I think anytime between the 6th and the 9th has a low possibility next week (well in the SE):

MU_London_avn.png Tuesday into Wednesday currently being the favourite:

Rtavn11411.png

Rtavn13811.png

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FAX chart suggesting 968mb centre!!

Could be a bad one people....lovely!! ;)

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Good job I wasn't drinking coffee at the time when I read this part because I would choked on it and a jet of coffee spray all over my VDU

VDU?? Visual Display Unit. (For those not in the know! :doh: )

I think they are called plainly monitors these days. (Haven't heard of the VDU expression since back in my schooldays, and that was just over 23 years ago).

Well. The driest September I can remember for one. I was away in Exmouth from 5th to 16th but saw no rain at all. 6th to 7th saw a dull day with sea fog blowing in but not theorectically proper rain. Where I live in Solihull had trace rain also. (I was keeping in touch back home. :o )

September as I can remember for any decent PPN was on 3rd September 2009 and that was via heavy showers and the evening produced a beautiful double rainbow. (See pic below!)

post-8209-12545251086248_thumb.jpg

Otherwise, any decent rain over England as a whole that I have observed will occur sometime tomorrow... 3rd October 2009.

Phil.

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GFS hinting at storm potential Tuesday in particular across England and Wales, a rather warm and moist Tm airmass gets dragged up deep from the SW and destabilising as the flow turns increasingly cyclonic and troughs move in from the Atlantic.

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Oh! I do hope so!! smile.gif It's got to be my turn now LOL. Even some nice heavy rain would make a change instead of all this gloomy cloud.

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One does apologise...I was at work and typing fast, and as I am in the office I dont have time to post lengthy posts + cutting/pasting images + checking it for grammatical errors......

Those in the know would know 866mb is a typo - those not in the know, wouldnt know any different!

Anyhow - all updated and amended accordingly :)

Thanks for clearing that up before i decided the UK was going to be ripped of the map :)

i wonder what would would happen if an area of air depressurized to 0 mb -mega++++ hurricane??

GFS hinting at storm potential Tuesday in particular across England and Wales, a rather warm and moist Tm airmass gets dragged up deep from the SW and destabilising as the flow turns increasingly cyclonic and troughs move in from the Atlantic.

Lol i've got geography field trip that day!! (but only to like central surrey)

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Found this map from 2006 that shows it's not just this year when the Low Countries/NE France have stolen our storms! Looks like a fantastic plume for March!:)

EuroLightning1.jpg

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Nice squall line showing on the radar. Was talking to a mate in Bolton as it passed over there. Very strong winds. Could hear the conservatory creaking.. LOL

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Nice squall line showing on the radar. Was talking to a mate in Bolton as it passed over there. Very strong winds. Could hear the conservatory creaking.. LOL

Owdo Paul. squall line passed through South Tyneside around 10:30 and was gone in 10-15mins, bright echoes on the radar but precipitation only amounted to 1m..!! Winds increased as it went through and low level condensation on the back edge was whipping up and swirling in every direction.

Winds are getting seriously strong here now 50+mph...!!!

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Owdo Paul. squall line passed through South Tyneside around 10:30 and was gone in 10-15mins, bright echoes on the radar but precipitation only amounted to 1m..!! Winds increased as it went through and low level condensation on the back edge was whipping up and swirling in every direction.

Winds are getting seriously strong here now 50+mph...!!!

Just passed through here. We had a grand total of 0mm out of it.. :D

Sun's out but that winds feeling chilly. Gusts here of about 30mph.

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Cloudy day here, some pretty nice gusts from time to time...

Still though - bone dry, and still under the influence of a fairly warm feeling SW/W'erly!

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Been keeping an eye on Tuesday for a while now as the Low to our SW draws up moist air, indicated by some nice dewpoints giving rise to some marginal CAPE values over a large portion of England, though the instability doesn't look to be around for long.

Really not sure on this one, overall it doesn't look that promising but the potential is there. Will continue to watch how this develops.

compared to over 2 months of High pressure I'm glued to the potential :D

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I think the key words at this stage are still low possibility or marginal:

gfs_cape_eur63.png

NW Storm risk for me on Tuesday = 35%, but at this stage of the year I'll take that! If anyone can get themselves down to the South of France or Spain, I think that could be the interesting place to be next week.

21OWS_EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_48.gif

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Looks like both Tuesday and Wednesday carry slight potential for storms, moreso on Wednesday as a warm moist airmass is drawn up from the SW along with troughs also moving in. According to the GFS 6z run, Wednesday does look interesting for the SE, as even though it is predicting the heaviest rainfall across the Midlands, there is better instability over Nern France, which does look to push further north into the SE and Sern counties as the Low pushes NE.

Even if there are no storms, if the 6z run materialised, then that would be quite a bit of much needed rainfall for a good part of England, especially for EA and the SE.

drat!:)

I'm always in the wrong place! :D:)

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