Super Typhoon Parma

[Somerset Squall]

Still a typhoon Cookie, though a minimal one with intensity of 65kts. Parma, as forecast, is lingering off the coast of Luzon, providing some prolonged torrential rain to the Philippines. Where Parma will go next is still unknown as you say Cookie, with a range of different scenarios played out by the models. Parma is forecast to re-intensify a little as poleward outflow increases over the next day or so but significant intensification appears unlikely due to upwelling caused by the extremley slow motion projected over the next 5 days.

[Cookie]

could this enter the south china sea?

sorry thought this was a tropical storm

Edited October 4, 2009 by cookie

[Somerset Squall]

could this enter the south china sea?

sorry thought this was a tropical storm

Tis now Intensity has been reduced to 60kts.

To be honest, I really don't know where Parma will go. The south Chia Sea is a possibility though yes.

[Somerset Squall]

Parma continues to weaken, and intensity has been reduced to 55kts. Convection is continuing to dissipate particularly north of the centre. The LLC remains strong, and an eye like feature is still visable on satellite. Parma does have the oppurtunity to re-strengthen a little but upwelling of colder waters from the ocean depths due to Parma becoming quasi-stationary will always hinder development.

The models are coming into slightly better agreement for the future track of Parma. The storm is currently trapped in a very weak steering environment with a distinct lack of steering ridges in the vicinity. Therefore, Parma will move very little if at all over the next day or so. After which, a ridge is expected to develop over Southern China which will gradually pick up Parma and enforce a westward motion into the south China sea. There still remains great uncertainty whether this will occur, though with more models picking this up it seems the most likely scenario. The ridge progged to build in behind Super Typhoon Melor to the east of Parma now looks to be too far away or too weak to send Parma to the north. This second option still cannot be discounted however.

Parma has killed a further 16 people in the Philippines. Heavy rains may continue in the far northwestern tip of Luzon over the next few days but overall rains have cleared from the rest of the Philippines.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33135385/ns/world_news-asiapacific/

Edited October 4, 2009 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

Typhoon Parma kills 17 in the Philippines

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/news/world/rest-of-world/Typhoon-Parma-kills-17-in-the-Philippines/articleshow/5086691.cms

A shadow of its former self

[Cookie]

[Somerset Squall]

Parma's intensity remains at 55kts. The storm has remained stationary all day, and is likely to remain stationary for at least the next three. After which, a westward motion is forecast as a ridge builds over Southern China. However, it's not certain that this ridge will form, and Parma could remain stationary for the next 5 days. If this occured, Parma could dissipate in situe due to upwelling.

This isn't the first strange behaving storm named Parma either! Look at the crazy looped track Parma had in 2003!

[Somerset Squall]

Parma's intensity remains at 55kts. The storm has remained stationary all day, and is likely to remain stationary for at least the next three. After which, a westward motion is forecast as a ridge builds over Southern China. However, it's not certain that this ridge will form, and Parma could remain stationary for the next 5 days. If this occured, Parma could dissipate in situe due to upwelling.

This isn't the first strange behaving storm named Parma either! Look at the crazy looped track Parma had in 2003!

[Cookie]

Parma's intensity remains at 55kts. The storm has remained stationary all day, and is likely to remain stationary for at least the next three. After which, a westward motion is forecast as a ridge builds over Southern China. However, it's not certain that this ridge will form, and Parma could remain stationary for the next 5 days. If this occured, Parma could dissipate in situe due to upwelling.

This isn't the first strange behaving storm named Parma either! Look at the crazy looped track Parma had in 2003!

2003 parma was a classic drunken typhoon!!

that phrase hasn't been issued for a while!

[Somerset Squall]

Parma continues to maintain the intensity of 55kts. The storm has been drifting very slowly southeastwards right on the west coast of Luzon. This motion is probably due to weak interaction with Typhoon Melor to the east. Parma is making a second landfall and therefore is expected to weaken due to land interaction over mountainous terrain. The slow motion of Parma could deliver more heavy rains though convection isn't as deep as Parma's first pass along the eastern side of the island. In about 36hrs time, models are still indicating a ridge will form over southern China, initialising a faster westward track back out to South China sea. Conditions are favourable out to the west, with low shear and warm sea temps. Therefore, Parma should re-intensify, perhaps back to a typhoon in about 5 days time as it approaches the east coast of Vietnam and southern side of Hainan Island.

[Somerset Squall]

Parma has weakened significantly as it interacts with the rugged terrain of western Luzon. Intensity has been reduced to 35kts. The longer Parma lingers over Luzon, the higher chance that it may dissipate. However, JTWC still expect Parma to move westwards back over the warm waters of the south China Sea, but not before weakening to a 30kt tropical depression. JMA are forecasting Parma to dissipate over Luzon. It will be interesting to see what happens. If Parma survives intact over the south China Sea, some re-intensification is likely over warm waters and under low shear.

[Cookie]

A threat to Hon Kong at all?

[Somerset Squall]

A threat to Hon Kong at all?

I don't reckon so Cookie, it'll probably remain to the south.

As is common with tropical cyclones trapped in weak steering environment, Parma has moves erratically over the last 12hrs and has in fact moved northeastwards and has emerged off the EAST coast of the Philippines. This was not expected. Parma is still forecast to move back west again a a ridge builds to the north, and this will mean Parma will make landfall in Luzon for the third time (second on the east coast). Convection isn't all that deep with Parma currently, but no more rain is needed in the area nonetheless and this continued lingering can only be bad. Parma will eventually emerage yet again over the South China Sea, and will probably re-strengthen in a favourable environment.

The tracking chart form JTWC shows Parma unexpectedly moving over water to the east and it's erratic loops:

[Somerset Squall]

Parma has pushed back west and has finally emerged in the South China Sea. Parma did weaken to a tropical depression but has since re-intensified to a 40kt tropical storm as the system has made use of the warm waters and low shear. The ridging to the north is expected to push Parma briskly (for once!) westwards towards landfall in Vietnam. Some further intensification is likely, but JTWC does not expect Parma to become a typhoon again. Parma may clip Hainan Island before landfall in Vietnam though this is uncertain.

[Cookie]

more deaths

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/8298221.stm

At least 160 people have been killed by flooding and landslides triggered by heavy rain in the northern Philippines, officials say.

[Somerset Squall]

Sad news Cookie, we always knew that a storm lingering this long (it's almost been a WEEK now!!) was never good news. Finally, it seems Parma will push away, but only to affect Vietnam which is also still recovering from Typhoon Ketsana.

[Somerset Squall]

Parma has weakened again this morning, with convection significantly decreasing over the LLC. It appears that dry air from mainland China is infiltrating into the circulation causing the convection loss. Intensity has been reduced to 30kts. It seems unlikely Parma will recover again, and will just about hold out before dissipating over Hainan Island.

[Cookie]

Death Toll rises to 540

PANGASINAN, Philippines -The death toll from two weeks of unprecedented storms across the northern Philippines soared past 540 on Friday after landslides consumed homes and neck-deep floods inundated towns.

At least 181 people were killed in a series of rain-triggered landslides overnight Thursday and on Friday in the Cordillera region, local officials reported.

Meanwhile, the downstream farming plains of Central Luzon were inundated with waters that reached two storeys high after dams in the mountains could not hold the phenomenal amount of water that has fallen on the region.

"The rains in this area are unprecedented," the executive officer of the National Disaster Coordinating Council, Glenn Rabonza, told Agence France-Presse.

"We are stretched, no doubt, but we are responding in the best way we can."

The crisis showed no signs of easing as tropical storm Pepeng (international codename: Parma), responsible for the past week of rains, continued to hover just off Luzon.

In Metro Manila, nearly 300,000 homeless survivors from Tropical Storm Ondoy (Ketsana) were packed into evacuation camps following record rains on September 26 that killed at least 337 people.

US troops helping out in the capital extended their relief work to the north on Friday, dispatching helicopters and other rescue equipment, the Filipino military said.

The US embassy announced an extra two million dollars in aid for the Parma victims on top of money and materials donated for the Ondoy operations, while UN humanitarian chief John Holmes is to begin a two-day visit to the country Monday to review relief efforts, the world body said.

The worst of the overnight landslides appeared to be in remote Benguet province, where 120 people were confirmed killed in five towns, said provincial governor Nestor Fongwan.

Another 38 people were confirmed killed in the neighboring mountain resort of Baguio, officials there said.

Across all of the north, the confirmed death toll from the landslides was 181, on top of the 25 people killed earlier by Pepeng.

In the farming region of Pangasinan province to the southwest of the provinces where the landslides occurred, thousands of people were stranded on rooftops in dangerously similar scenes to those in Manila a fortnight ago.

Days of rain from Parma forced authorities to open the gates on five dams, sending water cascading through dozens of towns in Pangasinan, which has a population of 2.5 million people.

"A lot of places cannot be reached by our rubber boats because the current is too strong due to the waters released by San Roque dam," Pangasinan governor Amado Espino said.

"The dam is supposed to be for flood control but now it is so filled it is like it is not there. The water just rushes right through from the mountains to Pangasinan."

The disaster council's Rabonza said about 60 percent of Pangasinan, including about 30 towns, were flooded with waters reaching as high as the second floor of buildings.

In the town of Rosales, neck-high waters swallowed up houses, vehicles, rice fields and even a large shopping mall.

Desperate local officials made urgent pleas for rubber boats and helicopters to rescue those stranded by the floods.

Parma has been hanging over the northern Philippines since initially hitting as a typhoon on October 3.

Parma hit the Philippines exactly one week after tropical storm Ketsana dumped the heaviest rains in more than four decades on Manila.

The government has been overwhelmed by the crisis, which has forced hundreds of thousands of people in Manila and other parts of Luzon into makeshift evacuation centres after losing their homes to the floods.

[Somerset Squall]

Truly awful Cookie. At least Parma is now finally done with the Philippines.

Parma has re-strengthened to a 40kt tropical storm. Parma managed to mix out the dry air through good outflow channels. Convection has increased since yesterday, and the circulation of Parma remains well defined. Parma is not far away from it's fourth landfall- this time on Hainan Island. As Parma has managed to recover over the last 24hrs, the storm is now expected to survive the passage over Hainan Island and make a fifth landfall on the east coast of Vietnam in a few days. Parma has certainly been a long lived storm, lasting two weeks so far and may well reach around 17 days before dissipating.

Edited October 11, 2009 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

been a round for a long time this system

[Cookie]

Landfall again

[Somerset Squall]

As you say Cookie, Parma made landfall last night and is now crossing Hainan Island east to west, and should emerge off the west coast soon. The storm is certainly maintaining a remarkably well defined circulation, especially for a storm that's moving over land. I wouldn't be surprised if Parma remained a tropical storm right up to final landfall in Vietnam. Intensity is still at 35kts. Ridging to the north will ensure Parma continues heading generally westwards until final landfall.

[Cookie]

60th warning issued! yup 60!

WTPN33 PGTW 121500

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 060

02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

121200Z --- NEAR 19.7N 109.4E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 109.4E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

130000Z --- 19.9N 108.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

131200Z --- 19.9N 107.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

140000Z --- 19.8N 106.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

141200Z --- 19.6N 105.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

121500Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 109.1E.

TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM NORTH

OF THE CITY OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z

AND 131500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEPARTAK) WARNINGS

(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN

[Cookie]

up to a tropical storm again!

[Cookie]