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Somerset Squall

Super Typhoon Parma

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Invest 99W has rapidly organised over the last 12hrs, and has been designated a 30kt tropical depression, the nineteenth of the season. 19W is located a few hundred miles west of TD18W, closer to the Philippines. Deep convection is persisting over a well defined LLC, and deep convective bands are spiralling aorund this centre. Shear is low, and sea temps are very warm. Therefore, there is no reason why 19W should not intensify, perhaps rapidly as it moves generally westwards along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the north. This ridging will take 19W very close to the Philippines, so this needs to be closely watch, particularly after the devestating rains from TS Ketsana.

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Tropical Depression 19W has intensified into a 35kt tropical storm. A small area of deep convection has remained in place directly over the LLC. 19W is sat in a moist environment with low shear and warm waters beneath the cyclone. This suggests 19W will strengthen some more on the westward track.

In a couple days, a trough is expected to erode the subtropical ridge to the north which will allow 19W to gain lattitude. Currently, it looks like it may miss a landfall with the Philippines though it will pass very close. Obviously, the later the northwestward turn occurs, the worse things will be for the Philippines. 19W could well be a typhoon at this point so still needs to be closely watched.

The intensification and track forecast could be complicated by the nearby TD18W. Interaction is possible as the systems are not that far apart, though it appears 19W may be moving westwards faster than 18W so it may increase the seperation distance. However, both steering and intensity is always difficult to predict in this situation so don't be surprised to see some track changes in the coming days.

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19W has developed further overnight and is now Tropical Storm Parma, with intensity at 45kts. The storm is maintaining some deep convection over the centre and some good banding features in the western quadrant. Parma is expected to continue strengthening in low shear and warm sea temperatures, and feel the benifits of radial outflow, further enhancing intensification. The intensity and track is complicated around the 72hr mark, as Parma is expected to absorb the smaller TS 18W to the east. The merger of two storms because of Fujiwhara interaction is still not very well understood and it's unclear what effects it will have on Parma. JTWC have reflected a slow in strengthening for Parma in this time period but temporary weakening is even possible just after the merger. Parma may wobble to the west or east in the absorption, so the Philippine still need to kee a close eye on this storm. Parma is expected to be heading northwestwards to the northeast of the Philippines as a break appears in the subtropical ridge to the north allowing the storm to gain lattitude.

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thanks for the updates mate something to keep an eye on

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Parma continues to intensify, with intensity now at 50kts. Parma is maintaining some good central convection with banding features spiralling around the central dense overcast. In addition, there have been hints of an eye feature in latest satellite imagery. Parma looks like it could become a typhoon as soon as tomorrow at this rate. Parma has moved generally west-southwestwards over the last 24 hours, but is showing signs of turning towards the west-northwest into the break in the subtropical ridge to the north. This should keep Parma to the east of the Philippines though the outer bands could well cause some more heavy rain to the country. Parma is expected to become a cat 2 by 120hrs, though this may be a little conservative based on current satellite trends. However, the JTWC forecast probably takes into account the Fujiwhara interaction with 18W, and as I said before, it is unclear how this will affect Parma's intensity.

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Parma has rapidly intensified over the last 12hrs, and intensity has increased to 75kts, making Parma a cat 1 typhoon. Parma has an intense central dense overcast with excellent banding features flanking it. The eye is well defined, and in the latest satellite frames it looks like it may well have shrunk to the dreaded pinhole size. I reckon Parma could see some further rapid intensifcation over the next day or so as shear remains low, waters warm and outflow excellent. Parma is now moving northwestwards along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge to the northeast. Parma will pass close to the Philippines before targeting Taiwan. It looks as if Parma will not curve northeastwards away from land unfortunately as the ridge to the northeast eventually build to the north of the system forcing a westward track. Parma is likely to be a powerful typhoon at this point so really needs watching closely.

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Parma continues to intensify rapidly. Intensity has increased to 100kts, making Parma a cat 3. I wouldn't be entirely surprised if Parma became a cat 5 over the next few days, conditions are really good, and the eye remains very small. Parma is quite small overall which will help it's rapid intensification. Needless to say, this is not good for the Philippines or Taiwan.

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this has really gone nuts on intensification since I was last on last night

2009WP19_4KMIRIMG_200909301930.GIF

I don't like the look at all of where this is heading

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this has really gone nuts on intensification since I was last on last night

I don't like the look at all of where this is heading

Totally agree. Latest track maps show Parma scraping very close by or even making landfall in the northern Philippines, possibly as a cat 4 typhoon.

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if it doesn't make landfall in the Philippians is it Taiwan after that?

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if it doesn't make landfall in the Philippians is it Taiwan after that?

Could make landfall on both, thought it may scrape by the Philippines, but not far enough away to not re-invigorate the flooding and cause more damage (if that's possible!). Taiwan currently look directly in the firing line for an upper cat 4 or even cat 5 landfall. A very worrying situation indeed.

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just adds to the carnage suffered by that area of the world ( ok a large area ) but still tsunami and earth quakes plus 2 typhoons in a week.

New image out

20090930.2157.gms6.x.vis1km_high.19WPARMA.100kts-948mb-113N-1325E.100pc.jpg

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just adds to the carnage suffered by that area of the world ( ok a large area ) but still tsunami and earth quakes plus 2 typhoons in a week.

New image out

WOAH, now that is what you call a pinhole eye. If that is anything to go by, then expect another big rise in intensity by next update, easily a cat 4 I should think, if not approaching cat 5! What a beast!! I just wish it would stay out to sea like Choi-wan!

Yes, a very unfortuate series of evens in the Pacific over the last week. Let's hope just for a little saving grace that Melor doesn't head that way aswell as he is likely to become big too.

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this Basin is on fire at the moment, one after the other, is this due to El nino?

yup, I rather they stay out to sea as well. this is when I start to hate hurricane tracking. Their good to watch like Choi-wan, but when the cause some much damge etc makes me think.

anyway will be a interesting few days.

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this Basin is on fire at the moment, one after the other, is this due to El nino?

yup, I rather they stay out to sea as well. this is when I start to hate hurricane tracking. Their good to watch like Choi-wan, but when the cause some much damge etc makes me think.

anyway will be a interesting few days.

Well, the West Pacific is known for having the most cat 5's of any basin and this year we've only had one so far (this could well be the second very soon) which is pretty normal. However, we have seen some amazing rates of intensification for several West and East Pacific storms this year which is far from normal (Guillermo, Jimena, Choi-wan and Parma spring to mind but there are others). Shear is non-existant out there which could be down to El Nino- where if we take a look at the Atlantic the whole basin in ridden with shear and dry air, typical of El Nino. Indeed it could be El Nino at work here now creating a crazy week in the West Pacific.

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looks well on its way to a cat 5, now a super typhoon

20091001.0257.gms6.x.ir1km.19WPARMA.130kts-926mb-118N-1311E.100pc.jpg

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Parma peaked as a 130kt, cat 4 super typhoon. Since then, unforseen westerly shear has emerged and caused convection to erode from Parma's circulation. Intensity has been lowered to 120kts. Shear is expected to ease as the typhoon approaches the Philippines, which could allow for some re-intensification. Cat 5 is not out of the question but doesn't look likely. Bottom lie is Parma is an extremley dangerous typoon that is now forecast to make landfall in the Philippines at around 125-130kt intensity, which is too terrible to even think about. Taiwan then look in the firing line as Parma curves to the north as the weakeness on the ridge to the north continues to expand.

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The track has changed for day 4 and 5 from JTWC. They now expect Parma to make landfall in northeastern Luzon, Philippines, and then stall just to the north whilst drifting very slowly west. If anything, this is an even worse scenario for the Philippines as it will prolong further the life threatening rains:

wp192009.09100112.gif

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Phillppines braces for Parma

CNN) -- Days after one storm left hundreds dead and most of Manila under water, the Philippines was bracing itself Thursday for the impact of a super typhoon gathering pace in the western Pacific.

The storm was upgraded to a super typhoon Thursday as it churned towards the island nation with winds of 240 kph (150 mph). The storm was about 600 miles (965 km) southeast of Manila, the Philippines' capital on Thursday afternoon.

The five-day tracking map shows the storm south of Taiwan on Monday.

Parma comes on the heels of Typhoon Ketsana, which left at least 246 people dead as it passed over the Philippines over the weekend. An additional 38 were still missing, the National Disaster Coordinating Council said.

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MANILA, Philippines — Thousands of villagers fled the likely path of a powerful typhoon bearing down Friday on the Philippines, as the government braced for the possibility of a second storm disaster just days after one that killed hundreds
Government chief weather forecaster Nathaniel Cruz has said Parma appears to be carrying less rain but stronger winds than Ketsana — meaning the flood risk may be lower.

www.google.com

Philippine share prices closed 0.32 percent lower on Friday due to a downturn in the US market and concerns about the possible effects of a new typhoon approaching the country, dealers said

business.inquirer.net

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Parma continues to weaken, and intensity is lowered to 100kts. Land interaction with the Philippines is now the primary cause of weakening, and will further weaken Parma. Parma will make landfall in northeastern Luzon very soon. What happens to Parma after this is really up in the air (excuse the pun). Parma will enter a very weak steering environment, that much is known. This will cause Parma to become practically stationary just off the north coast of Luzon. A subtropical ridge is located over southern China and if this builds east then Parma will eventually be dragged westwards into the South China Sea. However, if Typhoon Melor gets close enough, Parma could interact with Melor and move to the northeast. If neither of these scenarios play out then Parma could well move very little beyond Sunday. Needless to say, the steering environment is extremley complex therefore it really will be a case of wait and see. Parma is still likely to bring further flooding to the Philippines.

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now a tropical storm and being a pain to forecast as to where its going to head next

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