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Typhoon Ketsana

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Invoest 96W was upgraded to a tropical depression this morning and has since strengthened to a 35kt tropical storm. 17W is moving westwards along the southern periphery of a subtropical steering ridge anchored to the north. 17W is very near to the Philippines and torrential rains are already spreading inland here as the convection is sheared west of the partially exposed LLC. Moderate shear and land interaction will likely weaken 17W back to a tropical depression. On the continued westward heading, 17W is expected to emerge into the south China Sea, where a more favourable environment is expected. This will cause some more significant strengthening before 17W eventually makes a second landfall around 96hrs on the east coast of Vietnam. Flooding rains are the primary concern for the Philippines, and Vietnam should be just as concerned, if not more concerned because the winds are expected to be a lot stronger in relation to the system as it makes the second landfall.

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Have merged these two for you lads as I was asked soo nicely :rolleyes:

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17W has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Ketsana, with intensity still at 35kts. Ketsana has almost finished crossing Luzon, and due to fast motion, has deteriorated little. As a result, Ketsana should intensify more rapidly in the south China Sea, and perhaps become a typhoon prior to the second landfall in Vietnam. As the subtropical ridge to the north remains strong, a generally westwards track should persist, and Ketsana is expected to remain south of Hainan Island.

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Ketsana continues to strengthen, with deep convective banding wrapping into the well defined LLC. Intensity has increased to 40kts. Rains are now easing in the Philippines, but Ketsana has brought serious flooding there. What is truly amazing is the fact that Ketsana dumped 341mm of rain in just 6 hours!! This is record braking, surpassing the previous record set in 1967. This total is what some parts of the UK see in 6 months, let alone 6 hours!!

http://www.gmanews.t...ate-of-calamity

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again unthinkable and the death count is rising :(

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/as_philippines_flooding

MANILA, Philippines – More than a month's worth of rain fell in just 12 hours Saturday as Tropical Storm Ketsana slammed ashore in the Philippines, killing at least 40 people and stranding thousands on rooftops in the capital's worst flooding in more than 42 years.

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The death toll from Ketsana has now risen to 106, most by drowning. Really quite shocking and once again shows a storm doesn't have to be all that intense to cause devestation.

Ketsana is now on the verge of becoming a typhoon with intensity now at 60kts. An eye feature is developing in the central dense overcast. Ketsana will soon be making landfall near Hue in eastern Vietnam as a typhoon, current estimates peak Ketsana at 75kts.

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Ketsana is now a 65kt, cat 1 typhoon. Further strengthening is expected prior to landfall later tomorrow or Tuesday. The eye is becoming better defined and now persists in satellite imagery, and nicely shows where the centre of the storm is in relation to the coast:

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Ketsana is apparently going through rapid intensification, which is really not good for Vietnam. Intensity has risen to 80kts this morning. Shear is very low, waters are around 30C, and outflow, particularly in a poleward direction, is very good. Ketsana has another 24hrs to strengthen before land interaction begins to weaken the typhoon as it makes landfall on the Vietnamise east coast. Torrential rains are already spreading inland and the damaging winds will soon follow. Death toll has risen to 122 in the aftermath in the Philippines, and could rise further here, as 86 people are declared missing. Unfortunately it looks like Ketsana is going to cause deaths in Vietnam aswell.

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abpwsair.jpg

its getting busy out their.

20090928.0057.gms6.x.vis1km.17WKETSANA.65kts-974mb-158N-1128E.100pc.jpg

thanks for the updates mate

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Ketsana has continued to intensify and intensity is now at 90kts, making the typhoon a cat 2 on the SS scale. Ketsana has about 12hrs left to strengthen, and could possibly make cat 3 status. Vietnam is in danger as Ketsana continues to strengthen.

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Death toll has crept up to 140. Ketsana even made TV news, some of the images were horrifying sad.gif

http://www.newswire....9/28/c9512.html

This youtube video gives a little idea of what it was like:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHTYKwI7qZg

Ketsana's intensity has remained at 90kts. The eye is bearing down on the coast of Vietnam and could move onshore as early as tomorrow afternoon.

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The death toll form Ketsana has risen to 240 overall, with 23 people in Vietnam already confirmed dead as the typhoon made landfall overnight as a 90kt, cat 2 typhoon.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090929/ap_on_re_as/as_vietnam_typhoon

Ketsana should now rapidly weaken as it trecks inland and gets torn apart by mountainous terrain west of Vietnam. Torrential, flooding rains are likely to persist over the coming day or two however.

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380,000 in temporary shelter in the Philippines as a result of Ketsana with 250,000 - 350,000 homeless in Vietnam.

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