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Somerset Squall

Tropical Storm Nora

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This morning, out of invest 99E, the seventeenth tropical cyclone of the Eastern Pacific formed out in open waters, several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. At the time, the depression was poorly organised with convection sheared to the northwest of the loose LLC. Satellite appearance has improved significantly since then, and the depression is now a 40kt tropical storm, named Nora.

Tropical Storm Nora doesn't have that much longer to strengthen. Currently, shear has eased and waters are very warm. This will support further intensification over the next 24hrs. After which, shear will increase again, this time to destructive levels, which will soon shear Nora apart. Nora is not forecast to become a hurricane and unless rapid intensification occurs Nora should peak at around 50-55kts. Nora, on a general west-northwest track, should not affect land.

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Nora has continued to intensify, and is now at 45kts. Spiral banding is wrapping into a central dense overacast feature- a sign of a healthy storm. Although still not forecast to become a hurricane, chances are increasing for this to occur before the shear takes over.

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Nora peaked at 50kts overnight. Since then, the storm has lost it's banding and the area of convection over the LLC has become rather shapeless and s actually beginning to be sheared to the east. Shear will continue to increase which will weaken Nora. Nora is not expected to survive more than 3 days in the hostile environment.

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looks like Nora is dying a death

...NORA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.0 WEST OR ABOUT

760 MILES...1225 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA

CALIFORNIA.

NORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A

TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS

EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. NORA IS ENCOUNTERING UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND

WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

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