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Somerset Squall

Tropical Storm Mujigae

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Invest 90W located just west of the Philippines has rapidly organised today and has been designated a 30kt tropical depression. Convection has become more concentrated over the consolidating LLC, and there are hints of banding forming to the southeast. These characteristics suggest that 14W will soon be a tropical storm. 14W is moving west-northwest along the southern periphery of a ridge anchored over Southern China. This ridge is expected to remain in place over the next day or two maintaining the west-northwestward motion of 14W. The depression is likely to make landfall on Hainan Island as a moderate or even strong tropical storm. Primary concern is flooding from this system.

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An intense area of convection has persisted over the LLC of 14W, and it has been upgraded to a 35kt tropical storm name Mujigae by JMA. Mujigae is currently making landfall on the eastern side of Hainan Island. Hainan Island will likely see some severe flooding over the next day or two as Mujigae certainly is maintaining a large area of very deep convection. Mujigae will likely weaken to a tropical depression whilst tracking over Hainan Island. Mujigae, on the west-northwest track, should then emerge over the Gulf Of Tonkin, where some brief re-intensification is possible before a second landfall in northeastern Vietnam. As Mujigae is a weak storm, rainfall remains the primary concern.

This satellite image shows the intense convection:

post-1820-12526060257764_thumb.jpg

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Mujigae has crossed Hainan Island and is now in the Gulf of Tonkin. Convection remains very deep, and has caused severe flooding to southern China and Hainan itself. Intensity remains at 35kts, and fast moving Mujigae will be making landfall on the northeastern coast of Vietnam later today, where further flooding is likely. Moderate shear is slightly displacing the area of intense rainfall slighlty west of the centre, so the flooding rains will arrive before the strong winds. Rapid dissipation is then forecast inland.

News article:

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-09/11/content_12033051.htm

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Death toll has risen to 11 through the Philippiines and Hainan Island, mainly due to drowning in flooding. Another example of the fact a cyclone doesn't have to be strong to kill.

Mujigae is now dissipating over northeastern Vietnam and rains are easing.

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