Sea Surface Temperature - SSTs

[Typhoon John]

Actually the PDO is around 0 at the moment and isn't likely to change much going forward.

For October:

NOAA has it at -0.07

JISAO has it at 0.27

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

But I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing.

[weatherjunkie]

Source

Sub-surface shows cooler water creeping in. With the MJO expected to be stuck in phase 3 for quite some time and perhaps retrograde back into phase 2, I think the easterlies in the W Pac should upwell cooler waters in the western Nino regions. Even a phase 4 of the MJO would result in a similar regression of ENSO SSTA. I suppose this would be mother nature's way of evening things out after the Kelvin Wave.

QuikSCAT

If one was to look at the NOAA/NESDIS charts, it's clear that the PDO has become more negative. Warmer waters near Japan and south of the Aleutian Straits. Cooler waters hugging N. America.

Here's what we generally get to look forward to assuming the MJO remains in phase 3 for the next week or so, and since the signal is weakening and easterly winds are somewhat decent, why wouldn't it take a while to propagate east?

MJO Composites

Edited November 14, 2009 by weatherjunkie

[karyo]

The latest update from the Unisys website shows a gradual cooling of the SSTs over the eastern side of the nino region. The western side ramains more or less unchanged (maybe a slight cooling for the central region too).

The negative anomaly of the Newfoundand coast looks pretty healthy.

The other noticeable change is a rise in the SSTs east of Japan which makes a sharp contrast with the continuing negative anomalies further east in the North Pacific.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

Karyo

Edited November 15, 2009 by karyo

[Anti-Mild]

The latest update from the Unisys website shows a gradual cooling of the SSTs over the eastern side of the nino region. The western side ramains more or less unchanged (maybe a slight cooling for the central region too).

The negative anomaly of the Newfoundand coast looks pretty healthy.

The other noticeable change is a rise in the SSTs east of Japan which makes a sharp contrast with the continuing negative anomalies further east in the North Pacific.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

Karyo

At the SST profile for a negative NAO is looking a lot better than it did earlier this week. The negative anomaly had all but disappeared on Tuesday. Must have been an error in the analysis or summat!

[chionomaniac]

Has anyone got a link to real time currents in the Atlantic. I'd like to see what is/are exactly causing the significant warm and cold anomalies off the Eastern coast of America and Newfoundland.

Cheers

c

[cooling climate]

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/viewer.shtml?-natl-cur-0-small-rundate=latest

Hope this helps.

[chionomaniac]

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/viewer.shtml?-natl-cur-0-small-rundate=latest

Hope this helps.

Yes thanks.

it is interesting looking at that on the temperature setting, at how the cooler Labrador current is responsible for those warm and cooler anomalies. And is there an underwater volcano in the mid Atlantic around 35ºN and 50ºW because there is certainly a spurious heat source 1000m down there?

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I'm liking whats happening with the Newfoundland/atlantic cold pool over recent days. This has intensified and grown further.

The eastern most nino warm pools have continued to cool after the effects of the recent Kelvin wave burst

[Iceberg]

What is worth noting also is that the nino east based anomalies have now reduced somewhat from a few days ago, following the reduction of the west based anomalies.

Not trying to be picky NSSC, but you said the same last week, but the east based anomalies actually increased, what are you looking at to see these tiny changes in ENSO on a daily basis.? It's almost impossible to pick up on a 0.1 or 0.2 C change on the maps that have been used on here so far.

[WhiteXmas]

You nitpicker Iceberg you....

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Not trying to be picky NSSC, but you said the same last week, but the east based anomalies actually increased, what are you looking at to see these tiny changes in ENSO on a daily basis.? It's almost impossible to pick up on a 0.1 or 0.2 C change on the maps that have been used on here so far.

I think the reduction is clear enough to see.

I'm well aware of your stance regarding the nino which places very high significance on it as being a very large event that will override all other factors this winter, but imo there is no evidence that anything different to 02/03 will occur which showed a peaking of east based nino pooling in November and thereafter went on to be a weakening and strictly west based event.

We especially have to take into account the atmosphere forcings which are actually working against it. Much as GP has been suggesting.

Ironically the nina like atmospheric tendencies are being a little too effective if anything. We could do with the nino at least being able to shift the global patterns on from where we are now. A case of doing enough, but not too much. At the moment it is, actually, too little!

But in the long run I think this may be a good thing. I am expecting slow progress through the next month or so - but with the nino always on a disconnected restraining rope that will contribute to its peak as a moderate event at the beginning.

Edited November 18, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Methuselah]

I don't really know what to make of the cold pool adjacent to Newfoundland...But, on balance, I tend to think that its effects will be somewhat limited, when compared to those of the state of the ENSO; the Pacific Ocean does (afterall) account for around a third of the Earth's surface??

That said, I am feeling very snow-starved just now!

[karyo]

I don't really know what to make of the cold pool adjacent to Newfoundland...But, on balance, I tend to think that its effects will be somewhat limited, when compared to those of the state of the ENSO; the Pacific Ocean does (afterall) account for around a third of the Earth's surface??

That said, I am feeling very snow-starved just now!

I am also fed up with this continuing mild weather! However, I am pleased with the existence of the cold pool east of Newfoundland. It's been there all autumn and if anything it has intensified somewhat in recent days.

Karyo

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I am also fed up with this continuing mild weather! However, I am pleased with the existence of the cold pool east of Newfoundland. It's been there all autumn and if anything it has intensified somewhat in recent days.

Karyo

Hi Karyo

We can't guarantee that it will provide a conduisive -NAO this winter, let alone cold synoptics, but at this stage it is certainly something I prefer to see rather than not!!

[Fozfoster]

I am also fed up with this continuing mild weather! However, I am pleased with the existence of the cold pool east of Newfoundland. It's been there all autumn and if anything it has intensified somewhat in recent days.

Karyo

Yes Karyo, i clocked that, do you think that could come in to play for us this winter? NSSC cheers

Edited November 18, 2009 by fozfoster

[Iceberg]

Using the unisys(as this is the one most commonly used on here), we can plot the warm and cold pools on the Naval ocean current gulf stream map.

Red shows cold anom, black shows warm.

The black is clearly caused by a GS kink which has left a Warm pool eddy in place, ineffect expanding the GS in that area.

The Red is clearly the LAB current which seems to extending further south than it does normally, this could be due to synoptics, greater ice melt etc.

The GS does seem to shift southwards when a negative NAO/southerly tracking jet is in evidence. The GS does also move south through winter naturally, so assuming a good status quo the cold pool should start to strink, at least a bit.

As to how much effect this all has on our weather, I think it can effect the track of the JS by 50-100 miles which is important for storm tracks, but am not sure it has much effect on the overall trends.

[karyo]

Yes Karyo, i clocked that, do you think that could come in to play for us this winter? NSSC cheers

hi fozfoster. As Tamara said it can be a contributing factor for cold.

I think it can drag the jet further south. I would think more that 50-100miles south that Iceberg suggests but I am not an expert on the subject.

From the chart that Iceberg posted, it looks to me that this cold anomaly can reduce the effects of the golf stream. Also, a possible shift eastwards could result in westerlies being colder that normal later in winter.

Karyo

[Fozfoster]

Cheers guys, thanks for your replys

[BrickFielder]

Typical north atlantic forcing with respect to north atlantic sea temperatures is as follows.

Notice how warmer water south of greenland tends to promote a high pressure towards greenland and how with current SST patterns this is shifted eastwards. This for me pushes high pressure more towards scandinavia has that cold pool in the mid atlantic moves east. Remember that cold pool is the result of winds blowing across the sea and causing upwelling of cold water. For me the indicators would suggest low pressure systems coming across the southern half of the UK with a tendency to be on the north of the southern arm of the jet stream. The significance of a scandinavian high would tend to allow cold to build to the north as low pressure systems trundle into europe rather than going up into the artic to break up the ice. This may not be a cold pattern exactly, but may hint at some potential for snow fall.

However much we look at the north atlantic sea surface temperature patterns, these forcings are overridden by patterns in the pacific with suggestions of a moderate el nino pattern lasting until december at least, negating any atlantic pattern. We should note that strongly easterly QBO's can act to enhance the atlantic pattern forcings so we wait to see how things develop.

[johnholmes]

yes lots to ponder over just what may happen 1 month let alone 3 months down the line-SST's are obviously a large part of what happens but our understanding of just what alters their value at times is still far from complete.

[phil nw.]

Latest Pacific(El Nino)state from NOAA

It Looks as if El Nino has strenthened (+2.5c-3c in places) and spread Eastwards.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Latest Pacific(El Nino)state from NOAA

It Looks as if El Nino has strenthened (+2.5c-3c in places) and spread Eastwards.

Oh my thats NOT what i was hoping to see in the run up to winter.

[weatherjunkie]

Oh my thats NOT what i was hoping to see in the run up to winter.

Word on the street is that the ONI trimonthly peak for NDJ may reach the strong category. Sub-surface indicates continued warming under Nino 3. and 3.4. With the upcoming MJO expected to move into a favorable location for Nino strengthening, I think an ONI peak for NDJ that qualifies as strong won't be out of the question (+1.7C).

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Word on the street is that the ONI trimonthly peak for NDJ may reach the strong category. Sub-surface indicates continued warming under Nino 3. and 3.4. With the upcoming MJO expected to move into a favorable location for Nino strengthening, I think an ONI peak for NDJ that qualifies as strong won't be out of the question (+1.7C).

Huston,

We have a problem. :lol:

[Mark Bayley]

Interesting post regarding El Nino on the winter thread by GP :lol:

For those of you wondering about a strong Nino, ask yourself this. Why is it that a model that is clearly programming a high end moderate or strong Nino..

http://www.cpc.noaa....ino34SSTMon.gif

is even entertaining a pattern like this....

http://www.cpc.noaa..../glbz700Mon.gif

That is a shed load of high latitude blocking, a theme that has been consistently advertised for a long period now. The details of how much cold air drops into Russia during December into January is the only variable here.