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SteveB

Sea Surface Temperature - SSTs

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With the onset of Autumn & Winter, those all important SST's come into play.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

Can't believe the positive anomalies up in the Chuckchi & Beaufort Sea. No wonder there is no ice there.

I would like to see those positive anomalies ease considerably over the coming Months.

At least the negative anomaly in the Atlantic is still there, and a good negative anomaly around the Baffin sea.

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Now I don't know much about this topic other than what I have picked up from tv. but looking at that picture is the cold blue atlantic spot the run off from greenlands ice sheet and is the warm spot where the gulf stream is now coming up against that cold zone. That very hot spot right at the top has to be an error, doesn't it?

This is all guess work so don't shoot me down.

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Now I don't know much about this topic other than what I have picked up from tv. but looking at that picture is the cold blue atlantic spot the run off from greenlands ice sheet and is the warm spot where the gulf stream is now coming up against that cold zone. That very hot spot right at the top has to be an error, doesn't it?

This is all guess work so don't shoot me down.

Hi Tebor,

Their are people on here who know a hell of a lot more than I do about this, but I am not sure if the cold pool in the Atlantic is run off from the Ice sheets.

I think its more a typical set up in La nino years, and I hope but very much doubt it's an error regarding the positive anomalies in the Artic.

But as I said, their are others who will be able to give more information.

I thought it would be good to bring this topic back again.

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The cool spot in the Atlantic appears to be in the position of where there were a lot of lows coming through in the

summer so I am guestimating that the cloud cover and rain kept this area cooler.

To the north from whence our cold northerlies should come, it is slightly warmer.

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The cool spot in the Atlantic appears to be in the position of where there were a lot of lows coming through in the

summer so I am guestimating that the cloud cover and rain kept this area cooler.

To the north from whence our cold northerlies should come, it is slightly warmer.

We certainly need the SST's to lower up North. I have been observing the SST's for a few years now, and it would be nice to see similar SST's up North as they do Down in the Southern seas.

I have never seen such high postive anomalies down South as you do up North.cc_confused.gif

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Can't believe the positive anomalies up in the Chuckchi & Beaufort Sea. No wonder there is no ice there.

There wouldn't be ice there at this time of the year either way.

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There wouldn't be ice there at this time of the year either way.

Looking at Cryosphere today archive, if you go back to 1980, there was ice nearly upto Bering sea on this date.

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Looking at Cryosphere today archive, if you go back to 1980, there was ice nearly upto Bering sea on this date.

That was after one of the coldest winters ever for the Northern Hemisphere in 79 and also one of the coldest years. I suspect there was much greater extent in 69. In 69 the ice extent extended towards northern Iceland and there was ice floats near the northern isles of Scotland in February.

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That was after one of the coldest winters ever for the Northern Hemisphere in 79 and also one of the coldest years. I suspect there was much greater extent in 69. In 69 the ice extent extended towards northern Iceland and there was ice floats near the northern isles of Scotland in February.

If you are like me and hoping for Winters like yester year, then we need to see good ice concentrations again up there.

That can't be done until those SST's come down.

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http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/08/31/spencer-always-question-your-results/

"Based upon the above comparisons, I would now say there is no statistically significant difference in the SST trends since 1998 between TMI, the NOAA ERSSTv3b product, and the HadSST2 product. And it does look like July 2009 might well have experienced a warmer SST anomaly than July 1998, as was originally claimed by NOAA."

Also, this chart contradicts the original posted link ( http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html ) There is no warmth in the Beaufort Sea.

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No but there is plenty of warmth in the Chuckchi sea & East Siberian sea

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The cold anomaly in the Atlantic is blocking off the Gulf Stream as someone posted above. This is what is creating the warm anomaly off the East coast of America. Now why the cold anomaly is there I have no idea.

Interestingly the anomalies seem to be aligning themselves to a more favourable -NAO look. IIRC (there's a chance I'm not) we need to be looking for three horizontal bands of warm, cool and warm anomalies across the North Atlantic.

Edit: Just looking at the map again, I think the signature is warm from the tip of greenland down the East of Canada and over to the UK, cold from SW UK down to Portugal and across to the USA and then warm below that. Basically it means high pressure over the warm SSTs and storm track over the cold SSTs which would mean big Greenland high and Southerly tracking jet. I'm sure it's more complex than that but as far as SSTs go I'm sure that's about right.

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Just looking at the map again, I think the signature is warm from the tip of greenland down the East of Canada and over to the UK, cold from SW UK down to Portugal and across to the USA and then warm below that. Basically it means high pressure over the warm SSTs and storm track over the cold SSTs which would mean big Greenland high and Southerly tracking jet. I'm sure it's more complex than that but as far as SSTs go I'm sure that's about right.

im not sure that is correct..i was under the impression that during the winter months warm ssts tend to promote low pressure systems and cold ssts tend to promote high pressure..especailly in more northern latititudes..thus this chart would favour low pressure systems running north east between scotland and iceland giving mild southwesterly spells of weather to north west europe.

im not a great fan of ssts dicating our weather to any great extent, if you look back through the records which someone posted on here sometime last year...there dosnt seem to be much if any trend between ssts and weather patterns..they seem to be just signals created by a reaction to the weather.

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I would say the SST's, as they are now, would favour a quite +NAO set-up, unfortunately.

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im not sure that is correct..i was under the impression that during the winter months warm ssts tend to promote low pressure systems and cold ssts tend to promote high pressure..especailly in more northern latititudes..thus this chart would favour low pressure systems running north east between scotland and iceland giving mild southwesterly spells of weather to north west europe.

im not a great fan of ssts dicating our weather to any great extent, if you look back through the records which someone posted on here sometime last year...there dosnt seem to be much if any trend between ssts and weather patterns..they seem to be just signals created by a reaction to the weather.

You might be right, like I said I can't quite remember exactly what set up has led to the most -NAO Winters. But I've seen it discussed on here before and I was hoping someone might have come back with the correct answer.

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Hi fozi999 according to http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/climon/data/tgrid/1962 the sst anomalies in November 1962 led to a very negative NAO in the very cold winter 1962-1963. Crucially both November 1962 and winter 1962-1963 featured a near average high lattitude North Atlantic combined with very warm +1-2C anomalies in the central mid latitude North Atlantic offset by very cold -1-2.5 anomalies in the western and eastern 3rds of the mid latitude North Atlantic. There was also cold -1C anomalies in the north sea surrounding the UK.

The atmospheric response to the near average High Latitude North Atlantic and the cold Greenland and northern Europe areas was a deep blocking high.

The atmospheric response to the cold western mid latitude North Atlantic-warm Central mid latitude North Atlantic-cold Eastern mid latitude north Atlantic was a western trough-central ridge-eastern trough pattern in the mid latitude North Atlantic. Crucially the the upper level trough and cold temperatures in the eastern mid latitude North Atlantic extended into the Mediterranean and western Europe.

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I seem to remember reading something that said that SST anomalies in the North Atlantic move in a NE'ly direction over time. As such I would expect there to be a warm anomaly in the mid-Atlantic at a medium latitude by winter with the bulk of the cold anomaly around the British Isles.

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I've been reading the El Nino thread over at Eastern and they're discussing the -NAO Atlantic SST signature and referring to September 1986 as showing the classic SST pattern. It's quite close to what I described really:

post-4189-12528325038845_thumb.gif

And I wouldn't bet against our current setup developing into something similar:

post-4189-12528328717732_thumb.gif

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If one looks closely at the two shots then there is more dissimilar than similar, even over the Atlantic, let alone the rest of the oceans. So to postulate that this is currently similar to the mean for September 1986 is a bit ott in my view?

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Indeed John. I can't really see any similarity at all between 1986 and 2009?

To me the Atlantic SST's are extremely well set up for a +NAO and the El Nino signal just confirms it, IMO.

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Indeed John, it would be ott, but I didn't say they look similar, I said I wouldn't bet against our current situation developing into something similar i.e., a similar SST pattern. I never mentioned anything but the Atlantic.

I don't think what I've suggested is so far fetched. The next two months will reveal all.

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I've been reading the El Nino thread over at Eastern and they're discussing the -NAO Atlantic SST signature and referring to September 1986 as showing the classic SST pattern. It's quite close to what I described really:

post-4189-12528325038845_thumb.gif

And I wouldn't bet against our current setup developing into something similar:

post-4189-12528328717732_thumb.gif

i dont think there the same,

but i get where your coming from with the strip of blue across the mid alantic looks better than it has for some years.

and cheers for the post aswell.:(

and yes absolutely it seems things maybe setting up in the mid alantic and you are right to say there is a possiblity of something coming out of this.

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what is also intresting is looking at the sea around the antarctic area very low SST,S.

ALTHOUGH SST,S ARE HIGHER AROUND THE NORTH ALANTIC.

ALSO BIGGER AREA OF BLUE AROUND NORTH PACIFIC BIGGER THAN 86.

but over all it does show how much warmer the northern areas overall have warmed and southern mostly around antarctica have cooled.

but its looking like it could be setting up for something be intresting to see the last 10years of SST,S to see if there has been a drop off.:(

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Indeed John. I can't really see any similarity at all between 1986 and 2009?

To me the Atlantic SST's are extremely well set up for a +NAO and the El Nino signal just confirms it, IMO.

What Im finding fascinating is how different the SST patterns are compared to this time in 2006. I would tend to agree with you about the pattern looking very +NAO, but what confuses me is that when you compare them to 2006 (a very +NAO winter) they're like chalk and cheese.

post-2418-12528430594188_thumb.gifpost-2418-12528430880803_thumb.gif

What is noticeable though is how warm the mid-latitudes were that year, no doubt due to the scorching summer. The US has had a cool summer this year, meaning -ve anomolies are hanging around there compared to three years ago. Looking through the archives back 2001 however, it seems every year is different, so maybe its just not a very reliable indicator.

I just look at how warm the seas are in the GIN corridor (aka 'Corridor of death'). Warm to me suggests lots of energy for shortwaves, which are generally what spoil our cold spells these days.

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With respect to sea temperatures in the N Atlantic north of the UK - it's too earlier to know what they really mean IMO. What we can't tell from the data shown on the Unisys charts is the depth of the warmth/cold areas. Over the next 2 months, as the winds pick up across the area (remember it's been high pressure dominated a lot of the summer - in fact one of the most negative NAO summers) and the water is mixed, then the real sea temperatures will become more apparent.

Despite what the dynamic models say, the El Nino signal looks to be weakening to me with the 90 day SOI now positive and sea temperatures warming North of Australia over the last couple of weeks, and cooling off South America. Maybe there will be another warming pulse, but either way, the atmosphere is not joining in the fun, which I suspects means a weak event at most now.

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