White Christmas 2009

[MAF]

Forecast headline

The third forecast update for Christmas 2009 again reduces the forecast probability of a white Christmas for the UK, but continues to suggest a higher than average probability of snow. At the moment we think there is a possibility of the UK being covered by a cold north westerly airstream with pressure low to the east of the country. This would suggest that northern and western areas would be most likely to see sleet or snow showers.

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 45% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 25% chance of a white Christmas.

...

so another green Xmas here in the SE by the looks of it

[PB22]

so another green Xmas here in the SE by the looks of it

By the time we get to December, our chance of a white Christmas will be down to 1% at this rate!

[MAF]

By the time we get to December, our chance of a white Christmas will be down to 1% at this rate!

not that i recall many white Xmas's. but just once i would love my kids to get up Xmas day and see snow. My eldest is 15 this year and i remember her first Xmas i took her out in the car to get her to sleep while the dinner was been cooked. it was so warm i needed the windows down and the blower on cool the last 15 years have been pretty much the same. surely one white Xmas is not too much to ask for is it?

[PB22]

not that i recall many white Xmas's. but just once i would love my kids to get up Xmas day and see snow. My eldest is 15 this year and i remember her first Xmas i took her out in the car to get her to sleep while the dinner was been cooked. it was so warm i needed the windows down and the blower on cool the last 15 years have been pretty much the same. surely one white Xmas is not too much to ask for is it?

I know how you feel Mick. I've never experienced a white Christmas in my 30 years here - I think 1981 had snow on the ground, but as I was only 2 I wouldn't remember - it would be nice just to see snow for one year, but I'm not holding my breath!

[Don]

I know how you feel Mick. I've never experienced a white Christmas in my 30 years here - I think 1981 had snow on the ground, but as I was only 2 I wouldn't remember - it would be nice just to see snow for one year, but I'm not holding my breath!

Likewise, 1981 I saw snow on the ground. However, there have been a couple of close calls since, namely 27th December 1996 and 28th December 2000, but nothing on the day itself. One would think it must happen sooner or later??

Edited September 17, 2009 by Don

[Stuart]

Forecast headline

The fourth forecast update for

Christmas 2009 again slightly increases the forecast probability of a white Christmas for southern areas, and reduces it for the north of the UK. The overall theme is consistent with a higher than average probability of snow. We currently think there is a possibility of the UK being covered by a cold north easterly air stream with pressure low to the east of the country. This would suggest that eastern areas would be most likely to see sleet or snow showers.

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 40% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 30% chance of a white Christmas.

Forecast issued

Update 1, 02/09/2009

Update 2, 07/09/2009

Update 3, 17/09/2009

Update 4, 22/09/2009

http://www.theweathe...20forecast.aspx

[Stuart]

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2009-09-27 16:07:00

Next Forecast: 2009-10-04 18:00:00

Synopsis

Compared to the last couple of weeks its been quite hard to notice a particular trend that the long range models are showing lately. Earlier in the week it seemed low pressure would be in control but the last few days have shown high pressure over europe bringing more settled conditions for the southern half of the country. Pressure remains more low for the northern half but bringing very mild temperatures to much of the country. Therefore due to these factors virtually everywhere is at minimal risk apart from Scottish mountainous regions where more wintry conditions are possible the higher up you go. If the current set up on the charts are showing was to come off then it would be mostly dry for England in particular and wetter the further north you go but mild for everyone.

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Christmas/

[Don]

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2009-09-27 16:07:00

Next Forecast: 2009-10-04 18:00:00

Synopsis

Compared to the last couple of weeks its been quite hard to notice a particular trend that the long range models are showing lately. Earlier in the week it seemed low pressure would be in control but the last few days have shown high pressure over europe bringing more settled conditions for the southern half of the country. Pressure remains more low for the northern half but bringing very mild temperatures to much of the country. Therefore due to these factors virtually everywhere is at minimal risk apart from Scottish mountainous regions where more wintry conditions are possible the higher up you go. If the current set up on the charts are showing was to come off then it would be mostly dry for England in particular and wetter the further north you go but mild for everyone.

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Christmas/

Ian Brown will like reading this forecast!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2009-09-27 16:07:00

Next Forecast: 2009-10-04 18:00:00

Synopsis

Compared to the last couple of weeks its been quite hard to notice a particular trend that the long range models are showing lately. Earlier in the week it seemed low pressure would be in control but the last few days have shown high pressure over europe bringing more settled conditions for the southern half of the country. Pressure remains more low for the northern half but bringing very mild temperatures to much of the country. Therefore due to these factors virtually everywhere is at minimal risk apart from Scottish mountainous regions where more wintry conditions are possible the higher up you go. If the current set up on the charts are showing was to come off then it would be mostly dry for England in particular and wetter the further north you go but mild for everyone.

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Christmas/

certainly dont want that, but most likely be mild as westerlies are more common

[Les Penniston]

Its the same old story year in year out, will it wont it, i will wait a week before christmas to see, at the moment its 50/50, none of this nonsense 25% for southern areas and 40% for northern areas.

Regards

Les

[LomondSnowstorm]

certainly dont want that, but most likely be mild as westerlies are more common

in general yes but the last few xmases have been fairly dry and (apart from last year) cold/cool

Ian Brown will like reading this forecast!!

indeed, seeing as he is the 'modern father xmas'

[maidstone weather]

Its the same old story year in year out

Too right it is, with posts like this!

will it wont it, i will wait a week before christmas to see, at the moment its 50/50, none of this nonsense 25% for southern areas and 40% for northern areas.

I'm not getting at you personally, I just find it a little tiresome reading the same old posts like this each year. Enjoy the ride

[Backtrack]

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2009-09-27 16:07:00

Next Forecast: 2009-10-04 18:00:00

Synopsis

Compared to the last couple of weeks its been quite hard to notice a particular trend that the long range models are showing lately. Earlier in the week it seemed low pressure would be in control but the last few days have shown high pressure over europe bringing more settled conditions for the southern half of the country. Pressure remains more low for the northern half but bringing very mild temperatures to much of the country. Therefore due to these factors virtually everywhere is at minimal risk apart from Scottish mountainous regions where more wintry conditions are possible the higher up you go. If the current set up on the charts are showing was to come off then it would be mostly dry for England in particular and wetter the further north you go but mild for everyone.

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Christmas/

There is not a chance that can be accurate... christmas is over 3 months away.. It's hard enough to predict the weather for next week never mind what it's gonna be in 3 months... I'd rather wait and just see what happens on Christmas eve.

[stewfox]

There is not a chance that can be accurate... christmas is over 3 months away.. It's hard enough to predict the weather for next week never mind what it's gonna be in 3 months... I'd rather wait and just see what happens on Christmas eve.

When do you celerbrate christmas ?

3 months time is next year ?

Anyway I think there is a 32.86347% chance we will get snow for 3 hrs 9 mins on the 25th Dec

[maidstone weather]

There is not a chance that can be accurate... christmas is over 3 months away.. It's hard enough to predict the weather for next week never mind what it's gonna be in 3 months... I'd rather wait and just see what happens on Christmas eve.

and straight after my last post...!

I give up

[Ben_Cambs]

The 5th forecast has been released:

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 45% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 40% chance of a white Christmas.

[Stuart]

Nice

[jethro]

Anyway I think there is a 32.86347% chance we will get snow for 3 hrs 9 mins on the 25th Dec

Would it be possible for at least an hour of that to start about 11.30pm Christmas Eve please? It would set the mood perfectly to leave midnight mass and find the first sprinkling settled all around.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I know how you feel Mick. I've never experienced a white Christmas in my 30 years here - I think 1981 had snow on the ground, but as I was only 2 I wouldn't remember - it would be nice just to see snow for one year, but I'm not holding my breath!

Don't suppose you want to know that I've had four white Christmases since 1998 then?

[johnholmes]

we are indeed indebted to your information oh wise one.

As to anyone predicting what one days' weather might be some, 85 days is it, in advance, and the technical repost has to be utter tripe/balderdash.

NO ONE can predict it, be it 0% or 100% its as simple as that in realistic terms but fun for some to see these numbers churned out every year.

For a forecast for the 'period', say 3 days either side of and including the Day itself, then its possible to make a reasonable prediction 3 weeks prior to it, certainly not before then.

[Fozfoster]

we are indeed indebted to your information oh wise one.

As to anyone predicting what one days' weather might be some, 85 days is it, in advance, and the technical repost has to be utter tripe/balderdash.

NO ONE can predict it, be it 0% or 100% its as simple as that in realistic terms but fun for some to see these numbers churned out every year.

For a forecast for the 'period', say 3 days either side of and including the Day itself, then its possible to make a reasonable prediction 3 weeks prior to it, certainly not before then.

Sounds about right to me. ps will it snow in warwick that day.

Edited October 1, 2009 by fozfoster

[Costa Del Fal]

I agree with MW Here. This happened last year-do you honestly think these forecasts are going to be 100% right? No. Im sure its more to 'enjoy the ride' right now. Go with the flo and enjoy looking at them. Dont like them dont look at them.

[Backtrack]

When do you celerbrate christmas ?

3 months time is next year ?

Anyway I think there is a 32.86347% chance we will get snow for 3 hrs 9 mins on the 25th Dec

3 months time isn't next year.. you're missing out October!

[Great Plum]

I am hoping for a similar year to 1981... when I saw my only white christmas (I was 7 months old!)

I think the omens are right... Josh, my son, was due on the same day I was born and his christening was the same date as mine... therefore surely we must have the same white christmas!!

[Backtrack]

We had a white christmas not too long ago really. Around 3 years ago