White Christmas 2009

[Stuart]

I know it far away yet

Forecast headline

Christmas 2009 suggests a higher than average chance of snow across the country. We think there is a significant possibility of the UK being covered by a cold north or north easterly airstream with pressure low to the south east of the country. This would suggest that eastern areas would be most likely to see sleet or snow showers.

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 45% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 45% chance of a white Christmas.

Forecast issued

Update 1, 02/09/2009

http://www.theweathe...20forecast.aspx

Edited September 5, 2009 by Stuart

[Nick L]

Like absolutely everybody else at this stage (including websites like TWO) - haven't got a clue!

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Any white Christmas discussion based on facts shouldn't begin until early December at the very earliest :lol:

[I remember Atlantic 252]

what a complete pointless guess from TWO, more likely it will be mild with westerlies,

[azores92]

i couldnt agree more with most of the above comments, and using the word significant when describing the likelihood is even more extreme, its really tossing a coin at this stage, and the likelihood of it coming off at this stage is very slim. still, we shall see, in 3.5 months time. i know its what a lot on here want, but it doesnt mean it will necessarily happen :lol:

[bazookabob]

Is it possible to get the gfs charts or something for December 25th this early? I know they're going to be ridiculous but it might be interesting to take a look at them once or twice a week from now until christmas just to see exactly how much and how often they change between now and the big day! If they're good they might even cheer us all up temorarily from the woes of the credit crunch!

bb

[Costa Del Fal]

These comments are exactly what happened last year. Obviously at this stage its more part of the fun just to the run up to christmas and then when much nearer to the time there will then be more detailed based analysis etc. Its all just going by what the long range models say. Its nice to see people having a go even though at this stage it will be 99.9% wrong. This should be treated as fun at this stage and i would hate to see loads of comments which complain at them like last year. Dont like them-dont read them. Simple.

So in summary just treat them as part of the fun for now and get more serious about it in December!

Bazookabob-I totally agree!

Edited September 5, 2009 by Blizzards

[Paul]

We all know that any prediction for xmas day is pointless at the moment, but as a bit of fun, here's the nice mild xmas day chart from today's CFS!

[Nick L]

We all know that any prediction for xmas day is pointless at the moment, but as a bit of fun, here's the nice mild xmas day chart from today's CFS!

ARGH! Get rid of it!!!

[Costa Del Fal]

ARGH! Get rid of it!!!

Youd be dancing if that chart showed the opposite. :lol:

Edited September 5, 2009 by Blizzards

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

We all know that any prediction for xmas day is pointless at the moment, but as a bit of fun, here's the nice mild xmas day chart from today's CFS!

That looks about right!

[Stuart]

We all know that any prediction for xmas day is pointless at the moment, but as a bit of fun, here's the nice mild xmas day chart from today's CFS!

I dont like the look of that chart paul but long way off

[azores92]

I dont like the look of that chart paul but long way off

uncle barty eh, the hairdryer that very few want in winter :lol:

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ugly xmas day chart! only snow in extreme north/shetland isles 11-15oC elsewhere, that would be realistic similar to 2003,

[Nick.F]

Statistically, for London - The probability is No.

[Leigh]

I think I will wait until Christmas eve to make a prediction......

[Ben_Cambs]

These are wild predictions and really do not have much direction. A good forecast at earliest is at maybe a week before and early signals maybe two weeks before christmas day Im just goin to sit back and wait for Christmas to get closer and make my own judgement.

[Don]

We all know that any prediction for xmas day is pointless at the moment, but as a bit of fun, here's the nice mild xmas day chart from today's CFS!

A rerun of Christmas 1988?! :o Who knows at this stage. However, I have a feeling that those sorts of charts will be familiar during the first half of Winter 2009/10.

[maidstone weather]

Last time Birmingham had a white Christmas was 2004 I think. Not sure about other regions of the UK, but during the evening there was some moderate snow fall which left around 1-2cm of lying snow. Was quite nice to see. I would have rather it had fallen a day before hand and then woken up to snow on Christmas morning, but that didn't happen. There was another year, can't remember now where there was very heavy snowfall which fell on Dec 28th, and remember thinking why couldn't that of happened on Christmas day.

Not too fussed about a white Christmas, just getting good snowfall in the Winter would do me fine, something which hasn't happend since Feb 7-9 2007.

we had a close shave in 2005, it snowed on Boxing Day evening and for several days thereafter! :o

[Nick L]

Yeah I remember the 2004 very well. We had on and off snow showers all day, then in the evening we had a heavy one, got about 1-2 inches of snow. First and only proper White Christmas I have seen to date.

[ribster]

Dear oh dear, daily mail readers seem to be rife these days! Firstly, there is a quite clear caveat on the TWO site, acknowledging themselves that predicting the weather for a season, never mind a day is extremely difficult (if not impossible this far out). It's just a bit of harmless fun, and does provide some interest in watching the forecast change every update.

Then you get those rubbishing making a forecast this far out, but then go on to say this or that is likely to happen - what hypocrisy! Truth is you can't tell either way.

[Costa Del Fal]

Ribster-i completely agree. Who will make a forecast for a day some 3 and a half months way and expect it to be right? Just enjoy the rollercoaster ride i say!

[reef]

The last 4 christmas days have been the same here: overcast and dry with a maximum temperature of 6C.

Its usually a pretty good bet. The weather has been pretty benign in recent years over the festive period, even 2004 was a cool and calm affair here as we missed out on any snow. 2003 and 2005 recently had snowfall either side on the 22nd and 27th.

Any forecasts 3 months out are pure speculation though.

[MAF]

We all know that any prediction for xmas day is pointless at the moment, but as a bit of fun, here's the nice mild xmas day chart from today's CFS!

perhaps it will be a BBQ Xmas instead of the supposed BBQ summer :o

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yeah I remember the 2004 very well. We had on and off snow showers all day, then in the evening we had a heavy one, got about 1-2 inches of snow. First and only proper White Christmas I have seen to date.

yeah xmas 04 was fantastic, exactly same here