Met Office Claims 'barbecue Summer' Prediction Was Right ...

[Nick.F]

Well it has most definitely been a fab summer way over here.

But "A Barbecue Summer"? Who gives a monkeys? I hate barbecues and everything about them, what the hell is wrong with cooking proper food properly in a proper oven anyway?

You can still take it outside to eat........

Edited September 2, 2009 by Nick.F

[GMCA]

Journalists need no encouragement to mis-report/exaggerate the findings or forecasts of meterologists and climatologists.

...which is exactly what they've done in this article. You'll note there is one quote from someone at the Met seasonal forecasting team which is probably just a statement of fact about the average temp over the summer.

That has been turned into 'defending their prediction' and 'claiming the bbq summer forecast was right'.

The first rule of reading newspapers is assume they've made it up.

[Nick L]

It wouldn't be so bad if they held their hands up, said they were wrong an explained why they were wrong. They know they got the winter forecast completely wrong, yet I don't remember seeing a press release explaining what went wrong? All I remember seeing was a table showing the prediction and what actually happened (ie. near to above average was actually below). I presume it will be the same for the summer.

I could be wrong and I have missed the press release. But whoever came up with the "barbecue summer" garbage needs a serious talking to.

Edited September 2, 2009 by nick2702

[weather eater]

...which is exactly what they've done in this article. You'll note there is one quote from someone at the Met seasonal forecasting team which is probably just a statement of fact about the average temp over the summer.

That has been turned into 'defending their prediction' and 'claiming the bbq summer forecast was right'.

The first rule of reading newspapers is assume they've made it up.

That’s about spot on, although nearer the mark would be to say the churnalism that passes for news in the media, is not interested in truth and facts.

[The PIT]

Well I read the press release and the actual forecast before they updated it for August. Looked at the press release and thought this doesn't really tally with the actual forecast. It also a release that should have been removed from the website as it's a constant embarrassment to the met office.

Hopefully they'll learn from the experience and don't bother doing silly press releases and just point people to the actual forecast.

[stewfox]

I agree..."barbecue summer" was a daft phrase; imprecise and raising wholly unreasonable expectations. It was, apparently, supposed to assist press coverage of the seasonal forecast. Journalists need no encouragement to mis-report/exaggerate the findings or forecasts of meterologists and climatologists.

regards

ACB

The latest is a tobogan winter

Radio 4 had 3 guys on yesterday . 1 from the met another who uses solar output who's for cast for August (given in July) seem pretty good. Cant remember how the other one did his forcast

[Snowyowl9]

It`s been a great summer for ducks probably even too wet for them in July.

You could`nt really of expected 3 unique very wet summers in a row breaking records,wettest July for 100 years.

After the driest hottest summer of the 00`s 2006.

All eyes on next summer for a similar blocked June to start with,it gets predictable by august with the atlantic only coming in so July is transition month.

[William of Walworth]

GMCA is absolutely spot on, as weather eater correctly acknowledges ...

That's about spot on, although nearer the mark would be to say the churnalism that passes for news in the media, is not interested in truth and facts.

You've been reading Nick Davies haven't you weather eater? Nice one.

More media awareness please folks. Some of you are still talking about 'they' and 'them' as if it's the Met Ofice's proper meteorologists who are at fault. They aren't. It's their press office. This latest media spin distorting the MetO's fairly bland statement is as GMCA explains .... nothing too wrong with the bare statement from the MetO in itself.

All eyes on next summer for a similar blocked June to start with,it gets predictable by august with the atlantic only coming in so July is transition month.

Bad precedent based forecasting I'd say. There's every chance (or at least an equal chance) that next summer will be completely different, with anticyclonic influence far more to the forefront. Thats not just hopecasting by me (OK it is a BIT ), it's also just simple balance of possibilities.

Writers off of summer 2010 just STOP IT!

Edited September 3, 2009 by William of Walworth

[Weather-history]

Here's another source:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weather/article6816348.ece

I wonder how much spin the papers have put on it?

"The remarkable thing about this summer is that it remained so warm despite being wet, and that highlights how much our climate is changing — 30 or more years ago, a wet summer would invariably be cool as well."

Very naive and ignorant of the historical facts. You can have a warm wet summer.

Summer 1834

CET: 16.2

Rainfall: 316.2mm

July was a total washout, wetter by a margin than July 2009 and it was warmer.

Summer 1779

CET: 16.6

Rainfall: 279.4mm

I think Paul Simons wrote that part rather than any quote by the Met Office but it doesn't excuse the naivety of it.

I looked at the wettest Julys recorded for England and Wales and the corresponding CETs and it was mixed bag, the wettest on record which was a right old washout, 1828, had a CET of 16.0, 1779 had a CET of 17.9! Then you got 1988 which had a CET of 14.7

Py Paul Simons's logic, July 1828 ought to have been cooler than it was but the weather ain't that simplistic

He has been sinking in my estimations for sometime.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Your post is also backed up by Philip Eden's comments re. August:

http://www.climate-uk.com/

The fifth most "southerly" August in 137 years of records.

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

It don't know about BBQ summer... it was about what i was expecting for this summer, a typical English summer really. If i remember correctly they said some very wet/ thundery spells were also likely when u really read into it.

Overall the met office predictions aren't good because things aren't predictable. I often think some old man just guessing based on recent experiences would be better. RECENT SUMMER EXPIRIENCES = V. MILD+ WET.

"The remarkable thing about this summer is that it remained so warmdespite being wet, and that highlights how much our climate is changing— 30 or more years ago, a wet summer would invariably be cool as well."

I agree but find that rather worrying, particularly considering low solar activity.

Edited September 3, 2009 by OldGreggsTundraBoy

[WhiteXmas]

This made me laugh. It really did. It's funny how some sections of society are able to get away with manipulating their situation. It seems as if no matter what they forecast they will be right. What's next??

"We were right it was a white Christmas; ok it didn't snow but a few people got their hands on some of that Xscape indoor skiing snow for their gardens so that counts."

Ridiculous the last time I checked a Barbecue summer meant no rain. Forgive me for being so ignorant MetOffice!

The media don't help either however as they blow it all out of proportion.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1132144/Its-going-week-Worst-snow-18-years-brings-Britain-slithering-halt--costs-economy-3bn.html

Edited September 3, 2009 by WhiteXmas

[weather eater]

GMCA is absolutely spot on, as weather eater correctly acknowledges ...

You've been reading Nick Davies haven't you weather eater? Nice one.

More media awareness please folks. Some of you are still talking about 'they' and 'them' as if it's the Met Ofice's proper meteorologists who are at fault. They aren't. It's their press office. This latest media spin distorting the MetO's fairly bland statement is as GMCA explains .... nothing too wrong with the bare statement from the MetO in itself.

Damm you caught me out, a scary book everybody should read, especially before commenting on media stories, be it the weather or anything else.

As for the summer well friends from the south keep telling me how nice the weather has been, so given that only London and the south east count in media circles, then maybe the press release comments were not so wide of the mark.

[William of Walworth]

The SE bias of most of the media hasn't stopped them giving the Met Office loads of stick. On the basis of them seeing their (the media's) own earlier spin and ultraexaggeration of the Met Office Press Office's original 'barbecue summer' PRESS STATEMENT being 'contradicted'

The Met Office's recent statement (this week) was much more bland, but has still been spun and distorted to kingdom come by papers like the Telegraph etc. By far the worst spin doctors work for the mainstream media .....

The Met Office's original medium term summer forecast was not in itself so far wrong -- this never mentioned the words 'barbecue summer' in the forecast itself.

Weather eater knows the score, as does Nick Davies -- everyone should read his book. Stop blaming the Met Office's forecasters for the faults of the Met Office's Press Office and the even worse faults of the mainstream media. I'm looking at you White Xmas, and others .....

Edited September 3, 2009 by William of Walworth

[WhiteXmas]

Sorry William but I think you have misinterpreted. I never blamed the Meto forecasters for any faults of any press. I think it is a case of seeing what you want to see unfortuantely. Maybe before you single me out you should try to grasp what I am trying to put across. I am ending this here as you have gone totally off topic by singling me and "others" out. This is not a " what NW member can I argue with" thread. As I said finished before it goes any further as it is already becoming silly.

Edited September 3, 2009 by WhiteXmas

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

It don't know about BBQ summer... it was about what i was expecting for this summer, a typical English summer really. If i remember correctly they said some very wet/ thundery spells were also likely when u really read into it.

Overall the met office predictions aren't good because things aren't predictable. I often think some old man just guessing based on recent experiences would be better. RECENT SUMMER EXPIRIENCES = V. MILD+ WET.

"The remarkable thing about this summer is that it remained so warmdespite being wet, and that highlights how much our climate is changing— 30 or more years ago, a wet summer would invariably be cool as well."

I agree but find that rather worrying, particularly considering low solar activity.

Not sure why this post had originally got two minus points? - Even if I don't agree with all of it - but most especially though with the last two lines. However, I think Mr Data earlier has put this in the perspective that is needed

It wasn't a BBQ summer in the sense that it was intended. I think a pattern akin to 2006 was expected but the jet stream has proved more southerly and more active than anticipated.

I do agree in many ways though that it was a typical British summer - very changeable

[WhiteXmas]

I don't think we should be talking about reputation points being given and not given it just gives a platform for aggravation.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Sorry William but I think you have misinterpreted. I never blamed the Meto forecasters for any faults of any press. I think it is a case of seeing what you want to see unfortuantely. Maybe before you single me out you should try to grasp what I am trying to put across. I am ending this here as you have gone totally off topic by singling me and "others" out. This is not a " what NW member can I argue with" thread. As I said finished before it goes any further as it is already becoming silly.

I think that the METO could have controlled the press office angle of it more to help dampen down expectations. There were too many forecasters eager to look for an opportunity of mentioning the 'BBQ' slogan. But at the end of the day it was simply that the factors in terms of the jet stream etc that they envisaged determining the summer pattern did not go as planned.

The rest of it is just down to the usual media froth as many have said.

[WhiteXmas]

I would agree with that first part 100% NSSC

[Methuselah]

I don't think we should be talking about reputation points being given and not given it just gives a platform for aggravation.

I agree. And, I really don't see why it matters. IMO, it's all starting to get a bit silly...If you like a post (for whatever reason) award it a positive, a negative if you don't...

For what it's worth, I save all (both! :blush: ) my negative thingies for posts containing any of three words: coolist, warmist and denier. Other peeps' criteria are different, that's all... The Net-Weather Forum is, afterall, a community of more than 8500 discrete individuals?

Can we get back on-topic now, please??

[William of Walworth]

I agree with NSSC too.

Apologies White Xmas for getting over irritated, I should have confined my annoyance to the mainstream media alone.

I *do* think one or two posters (generally) in this thread weren't distinguishing clearly enough between the MetO forecasters and the MetO Press Office.

NSSC clarifies the point admirably though, perhaps their Press Office has now learnt their lesson having had their hands bitten this summer by the sharks of the mainstream media.

And a lot of people out there take their generalised and ignorant annoyance at 'no nothing forecasters' from the lying no nothing media ..... hence my annoyance.

My apologies here where due though, White Xmas included.

Edited September 3, 2009 by William of Walworth

[WhiteXmas]

No worries William, the past is the past now time to move on and enjoy what we are here to enjoy; the weather! At least as much as we can :blush:

[johnholmes]

I agree with NSSC too.

Apologies White Xmas for getting over irritated, I should have confined my annoyance to the mainstream media alone.

I *do* think one or two posters (generally) in this thread weren't distinguishing clearly enough between the MetO forecasters and the MetO Press Office.

NSSC clarifies the point admirably though, perhaps their Press Office has now learnt their lesson having had their hands bitten this summer by the sharks of the mainstream media.

And a lot of people out there take their generalised and ignorant annoyance at 'no nothing forecasters' from the lying no nothing media ..... hence my annoyance.

My apologies here where due though, White Xmas included.

I'm sorry folks but you are wrong about the Met O press Office-I did give a full explanation very soon after the issue of the B-B-Q summer headline.

No one to blame but the chief of the forecasting division-his idea to have a power point slide with those words on, then he/and his subordinates then left wondering why the media hyped it up as they did.

Its not the first time this bloke has made a rod for every one elses' back in the Met O but one can understand his staff being reluctant to tell him!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Agreed, I remember it now (I never got in touch with Ewan directly while I was there though). As well as being put up in the MetO's presentation it was also put up on the website directly, which IMO was another big mistake.

Still, I agree with one of William of Walworth's points, namely that the media is South-East biased yet took every opportunity to bash the Met Office despite many parts of the southeast often having decent "barbecue summer" weather. That said, I think the media tends to bash summer weather if it's anything less than a Summer 1976!

[snowingman]

Golly this gets up my goat!!

It has just rained incessantly for 56 days out of 62 in July and August, with only one day over 20C.. how the heck can this be bbq weather!

Joke... civil servants.. a nonsense!