Met Office Claims 'barbecue Summer' Prediction Was Right ...

[Cheese Rice]

Forecasters have defended their prediction of a 'barbecue summer' by claiming they got the temperature right - just not the amount of rain.

The Met Office has said Britain has basked in three months of above-average temperatures, but the warm weather has been spoiled by the wettest July for 100 years.

Figures show the country's average temperature over the last three months has been 14.8C - 0.7C above the normal.

August was the hottest month for many of us, with England 1C warmer than normal.

The west and north of Scotland - areas which have seen heavy rain in recent weeks - saw temperatures 1C above the normal level.

But the rain spoiled many people's summers, and the Met Office was heavily criticised for its 'barbecue summer' prediction.

Forecasters say they did not get it entirely wrong, but have now admitted they they find it difficult to accurately predict the amount of rain that will fall in summer.

In April, they told us the summer would be hotter than the past two years and temperatures would reach 30C - and they were right.

Adam Scaife, of the Met Office's seasonal forecasting group, said: 'It's much harder to forecast summer rainfall, which is why we don't put probabilities on it.

'But we gave a two-thirds chance of a warmer than average summer, and that was true.'

The figures emerge after Britain enjoyed a mixed Bank Holiday.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1210441/Met-Office-says-barbecue-summer-prediction-got-temperature-right--just-rain.html#ixzz0Psz0A3QD

[laserguy]

Forecasters have defended their prediction of a 'barbecue summer' by claiming they got the temperature right - just not the amount of rain.

Well if you like your burgers dripping wet then yes,they were right. Still nowhere enough rain for me though - hate summer/barbies and everything about it.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

was certainly right for wimbledon, 3-4 days 30oC plus there, wimb got roof so can guarantee little rain now

[Mondy]

Forecasters say they did not get it entirely wrong, but have now admitted they find it difficult to accurately predict the amount of rain that will fall in summer.

Which is why they recently bought a new £30m "super-computer" (apparently it spews out too much of that awful component known as CO2)

Oh, and we're paying for this new computer..

I honestly give up with the Meto nowadays. They are, in my honest opinion, not very good - except on Countryfile every Sunday evening.

[damianslaw]

A very weak case from the Met Office I say, I think they are just using the excuse that because the summer as whole was wamere than average and by this I guess they take even 0.1 degree as the benchmark that this is justification for saying that the Barbeque forecast was right - absolute rubbish. There case seems based purely on what the SE got, for the NW it was never warm for very long and all too often cloudy.. and very wet.

Interesting how they are saying they cannot predict rainfall patterns anymore in the summer, they have simply given up, and also them saying wet summers usually mean cold summers, wrong wrong wrong, we can get very wet summers under warm conditions when tropical maritime air rules the roost and we see temporary ridges develop.

[Polar Gael]

Well if this is the Met Office "getting it right", I would hate to see them getting it wrong...

Actually, scratch that: I'd love it if they forecasted guessed another mild winter and muffed that one up as well.

All joking aside, these seasonal forecasts are clearly still very experimental. Next time, they should calm the press office folk down before they dream up their headline grabbing press release and stick to the science!

[acbrixton]

"All joking aside, these seasonal forecasts are clearly still very experimental. Next time, they should calm the press office folk down before they dream up their headline grabbing press release and stick to the science!"

I agree..."barbecue summer" was a daft phrase; imprecise and raising wholly unreasonable expectations. It was, apparently, supposed to assist press coverage of the seasonal forecast. Journalists need no encouragement to mis-report/exaggerate the findings or forecasts of meterologists and climatologists.

regards

ACB

[Solar Cycles]

Just goes to show you can pass off any old rubbish with fudged statistics! Talk about the bigger the shovel, the bigger the hole!!

[Derp Patrol]

Statistically, they were right in some ways.. but it certainly was not a BBQ summer. There is no point saying 'we expect it will reach 30C this year' as every year basically the UK gets 30C days.. last time it didn't was 1993. They didn't mention anything about the exceptionally wet July either..

[londonsnow]

I started banging on about the inadvisable use of the "bbq summer" phrase pretty much the day it was put out by the met's press office. clearly it was a media line to grab a few headlines which they did in spades. why did the met office churn this line out? it didn't need to. any guesses on the top line for the updated winter forecast? is it going to be a "stay in with a curry" winter"?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Here's another source:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weather/article6816348.ece

I wonder how much spin the papers have put on it?

Here's the MetO's initial press statement:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/pr20090430.html?zoneid=54519&charset=UTF-8

The argument itself is very weak IMO. I thought the "barbecue summer" comment, as well as displaying signs of following the BBC's "dumbing down" lead, was a huge mistake because for most people it would bring forward thoughts of a summer like 1959, 1975, 1976, 1989 or 1995, and the MetO's seasonal forecast suggested nothing of the sort- just that a warmer and drier than average summer was more likely than not to happen. As a result expectations were unnecessarily raised out of proportion and this summer has most likely been perceived as worse than it really was as a result.

Many parts of East Anglia and the southeast have indeed had a "barbecue summer", but not so over most other parts of the country. In most other areas the above average temperatures were mainly the result of high overnight minima. The focus on temperatures and rainfall also ignores sunshine, which has been near or slightly above average in some eastern areas but rather below in western Britain. And although July got the blame for being wet, in some western areas August was even worse for BBQ weather than July. June was also poor for BBQs in many parts of the northeast.

In southeast England it may well be the case that a BBQ is feasible as long as it's warm and dry, with other factors including sunshine being irrelevant, but up north, it's no good for a BBQ if it's overcast with nippy winds, near-average daytime temperatures and warm nights.

[MAF]

.......

Many parts of East Anglia and the southeast have indeed had a "barbecue summer", but not so over most other parts of the country. ......

well i have to admit i felt this summer was as good as i expected after reading the BBQ Summer forecast made by the MetO

OK they got it wrong. but did they? i think the use of the phrase was probably a bad choice, but the weather here in the SE certainly lived up to the forecast. trouble is, it seems that it is only the East/South East (according to all the posts here) who managed to do that.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I agree with you. My comment was partly based on my experiences in Norwich in July and August- the third week of August in particular had some excellent BBQ weather there, and July wasn't bad as long as you timed the barbecue to coincide with one of the sunny intervals in between the showers. June, too, delivered both early and late in the month and I recall midmonth wasn't bad either.

But in many ways it underlines a key point, a summer doesn't have to depart far from average in the south to be a good barbecue summer, but it does if you live in the north.

[MAF]

I agree with you. My comment was partly based on my experiences in Norwich in July and August- the third week of August in particular had some excellent BBQ weather there, and July wasn't bad as long as you timed the barbecue to coincide with one of the sunny intervals in between the showers. June, too, delivered both early and late in the month and I recall midmonth wasn't bad either.

But in many ways it underlines a key point, a summer doesn't have to depart far from average in the south to be a good barbecue summer, but it does if you live in the north.

yep. and i think it was J Holmes who commented on how much of a NW/SE divide there has been in the weather this season

[Guest]

Many parts of East Anglia and the southeast have indeed had a "barbecue summer", but not so over most other parts of the country. In most other areas the above average temperatures were mainly the result of high overnight minima. The focus on temperatures and rainfall also ignores sunshine, which has been near or slightly above average in some eastern areas but rather below in western Britain. And although July got the blame for being wet, in some western areas August was even worse for BBQ weather than July. June was also poor for BBQs in many parts of the northeast.

In southeast England it may well be the case that a BBQ is feasible as long as it's warm and dry, with other factors including sunshine being irrelevant, but up north, it's no good for a BBQ if it's overcast with nippy winds, near-average daytime temperatures and warm nights.

Statistics, statistics, damned statistics, you can't believe them - in this case we are told that the average temperatures have been above normal though this is not necessarity though the daytime maxima have been at or near, say about normal, the frequent cloud cover has caused the night time minima to be above normal, so daily mean temperatures can very often be misleading.

Well I live in Watford and here it has been nothing like a BBQ summer. Fairly consistantly for August perhaps 2, 3 or 4 days fine then rain, with relatively few opportunities for BBQ's and very few balmy nights to sit outside.

However I do agree with the opinion of others that this type of long term forecasting is very much in the experimental stage.

Despite all our weather observations on land, the sea, the upper air and by satellite we can only measure a fraction of what is really happening in the atmosphere and the seas and could quite easily miss the flapping of a butterfly's wings that goes on to cause a hurricane elsewhere.

Still unless efforts are continued to be made no progress will be made at all.

Edited September 2, 2009 by mike Meehan

[The PIT]

Expect the orginal forecast didn't mention barbi summer just a misguided press release which isn't the forecast.

June was dry for many which surprised me as we were wet July was wet while August away from the North West was dry as well. Overall temperatures were just above average over all with the normal local veritations of course.

So the orginal forecast wasn't too far off it was just thta silly Barbi press release which mad eme wonder if they actually read there own forecast. If they had Barbi wouldn't have been in it.

[cheeky_monkey]

So the orginal forecast wasn't too far off it was just thta silly Barbi press release which mad eme wonder if they actually read there own forecast. If they had Barbi wouldn't have been in it.

i would agree with that as a general overview and taking away the bbq summer quote i dont think the forecast was too far of the mark for the majority with regards to temperatures...yes july was wet..but june and august especailly in the south and east have been drier.

The met office are in a lose lose situation whatever forecast they put out..there are plenty of people who are ready too shoot them down. We live in an area of the world where the weather is predictable by being unpredictable and wouldnt it be boring if the met office were correct in their forecasts everytime?....this forum wouldnt exist for starters!

[SussexCoast]

I would suspect that the Meto know that such long range predictions based on their data are likely to be inaccurate or if accurate just got lucky to a point, there must be so many variables.

The problem I have with it is if they feel commercially compelled to offer such unlikely predictions, I assume they gain a significant income from big business from offering long range forecasts that their own professional credability can sometimes be comprimised.

[Methuselah]

well i have to admit i felt this summer was as good as i expected after reading the BBQ Summer forecast made by the MetO

OK they got it wrong. but did they? i think the use of the phrase was probably a bad choice, but the weather here in the SE certainly lived up to the forecast. trouble is, it seems that it is only the East/South East (according to all the posts here) who managed to do that.

I agree with that, Mick. IMO, it all depends on whether one reads/digests the actual forecast, or doesn't bother getting past the slogan??

[Harry]

Wasn't this pretty much an average British summer?

Every book relating weather I read as a child stated, stated that the pattern for British summer weather was:

"In the summer months, the SE is hotter and drier, while the NW is cooler and wetter"

The SE is generally hotter and drier due to the proximity to the continent, meaning a greater exposure to drier, generally hotter continental air masses. The NW is more exposed to cooler maritime airflows meaning often wetter and less hot.

On topic, the MetO were foolish to state BBQ summer, as this implies a regular occurrence of sunny skies and warm/hot temperatures. The British public are more interested in the sunshine as opposed to 'balmy' temperatures. The fact that the MetO were accurate in saying it would be warmer than average is little consolation to the vast majority of the population who were expecting more sunshine (and BBQs)!!

It was IMO a very good summer here in the SE, with perhaps all but one weekend in the last 2-3 months being anything less than reasonably sunny and warm/hot (midweeks I am stuck in the office so tend not to remember as much). We've had a decent number of days with temps at 24-25C+ (up to 33C) so from my point of view, the MetO were spot on!

This of course is little consolation to the people further N and W who (rather expectantly IMO, though not in line with MetO suggestions) were a lot wetter and cooler.

Edited September 2, 2009 by Harry

[The Penguin]

well i have to admit i felt this summer was as good as i expected after reading the BBQ Summer forecast made by the MetO

OK they got it wrong. but did they? i think the use of the phrase was probably a bad choice, but the weather here in the SE certainly lived up to the forecast. trouble is, it seems that it is only the East/South East (according to all the posts here) who managed to do that.

They got it wrong for up here. Big Style! There was hardly a day that you could have got the charcoal to light or wanted to sit out with a beer. The MO's big mistake was certainly in going for the dramatic headline. I doubt they'll do that again soon.

[Derp Patrol]

Wasn't this pretty much an average British summer?

Every book relating weather I read as a child stated, stated that the pattern for British summer weather was:

"In the summer months, the SE is hotter and drier, while the NW is cooler and wetter"

The SE is generally hotter and drier due to the proximity to the continent, meaning a greater exposure to drier, generally hotter continental air masses. The NW is more exposed to cooler maritime airflows meaning often wetter and less hot.

On topic, the MetO were foolish to state BBQ summer, as this implies a regular occurrence of sunny skies and warm/hot temperatures. The British public are more interested in the sunshine as opposed to 'balmy' temperatures. The fact that the MetO were accurate in saying it would be warmer than average is little consolation to the vast majority of the population who were expecting more sunshine (and BBQs)!!

It was IMO a very good summer here in the SE, with perhaps all but one weekend in the last 2-3 months being anything less than reasonably sunny and warm/hot (midweeks I am stuck in the office so tend not to remember as much). We've had a decent number of days with temps at 24-25C+ (up to 33C) so from my point of view, the MetO were spot on!

This of course is little consolation to the people further N and W who (rather expectantly IMO, though not in line with MetO suggestions) were a lot wetter and cooler.

I kind of agree with you, except down here in the SE, my sense is that it has been another bad summer. Rainfall has been above average, and temps have also been slightly above average, mainly due to warmer nights mind. I disagree that there have been a decent amount of 24/25C + days, down here we went a month from the beginning of July untill August without a 25C+ temp which is very unusual for down here.

[Optimus Prime]

The summer CET came in at 15.9c compared to the 15.6c average. So the summer was only 0.2c above average. Even here in the south it WSN'T a barbecue summer, not even here in the south where it has been warm. The Metoffice got both the temperatures and the rainfall wrong and probably Sunshine as well. A poor forecast.

Summer

Mean Maxima 20.2c (+0.5c)

Mean Minima 11.4c (+0.5c)

Mean temperature 15.8c (+0.3c)

[William of Walworth]

these seasonal forecasts are clearly still very experimental. Next time, they should calm the press office folk down before they dream up their headline grabbing press release and stick to the science!

I agree..."barbecue summer" was a daft phrase; imprecise and raising wholly unreasonable expectations. It was' date=' apparently, supposed to assist press coverage of the seasonal forecast. Journalists need no encouragement to mis-report/exaggerate the findings or forecasts of meterologists and climatologists.

regards

ACB [/quote']

Spot on -- it's the Press Office at fault, not so much the MetO meteorologists!

Edited September 2, 2009 by William of Walworth

[The watcher]

They can't turn round and say they called it right, they can't even predict a few hours out what it will be 100%.

Saying it'll be hot/warm in Summer is like saying, "leaves fall in Autumn", its always going to be right.