Tropical Storm Kevin

[Cookie]

we now have 14E in the East Pacific

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 95E has been designated a tropical depression a few hundred miles west of Hurricane Jimena. A tight circulation exsists with an expanding area of deep convection. Strengthening is forecast in the near term over warm waters and low shear. 14E should become a tropical storm before the system hits drier air and upper level convergence. This may limit the potential for the storm to become much stronger than around 45kts. Models are not keen on developing this system much. Further complicating matters, 14E may interact with Jimena. As Jimena is much stronger then any interaction will have negative consequences for 14E. 14E is expected to turn northwards towards cooler waters, as a break in the subtropical ridge to the north occurs preventing further westward motion. It is possible northeastward motion may occur if the system gets too close to Jimena. Bottom line is that track forecasts are very uncertain for 14E.

[Cookie]

what was wrong with my thread? :lol:

[Somerset Squall]

LOL Cookie!

14E has become TS Kevin. An interesting little stat from NHC in the latest discussion too:

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009

200 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009

THE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED A CURVED BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND TO THE

WEST AND SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER...RESULTING IN DVORAK

CI-NUMBERS OF 3.0 FROM TAFB AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND 1800 UTC. BASED ON

THIS...THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO KEVIN WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY

OF 40 KT. KEVIN IS THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM TO FORM THIS MONTH IN

THE EAST PACIFIC BASIN...THE MOST IN AUGUST SINCE 1968 AND THE MOST

IN ANY MONTH SINCE 1985.

RECENT SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF KEVIN IS LOCATED

FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY

LOCATED SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...RESULTING IN

LIGHT STEERING CURRENT. AS A RESULT...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING

VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A LONGER-TERM INITIAL

MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/08 WAS USED TO INITIALIZE THE GUIDANCE...AND

THE ADVISORY MOTION IS 290/04.

THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY WIDE SPREAD THROUGH THE

PERIOD. THE GFDL...HWRF...AND ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT THE

CANADIAN NOW SHOW AT LEAST SOME EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. THIS

SEEMS TO BE DUE TO INTERACTION OF KEVIN WITH HURRICANE JIMENA AND

THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS

CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHWEST FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE AMOUNT OF

EASTWARD MOTION VARIES DRAMATICALLY...WITH THE UKMET...GFDL...

GFS...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF SHOWING AN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION

THROUGH DAY 5. HOWEVER...THE HWRF...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN

SHOW A TURN TO THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...IT IS DIFFICULT TO SORT

OUT THESE DIFFERENCES SINCE THE GLOBAL MODEL ANALYSES OF BOTH

JIMENA AND KEVIN SEEM TO BE TOO WEAK. ALSO...THE HWRF RUN FOR KEVIN

HAS AN UNREALISTICALLY WEAK REPRESENTATION OF JIMENA...WHICH IS THE

MUCH STRONGER CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.

ALL THIS BEING SAID...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN MODIFIED

CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. INITIALLY...THE TRACK IS

FARTHER SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE INITIAL

POSITION AND MOTION. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

TRENDS TOWARD THE MODELS THAT SHOW THE EASTWARD TURN. AFTER AN

INITIAL NORTHWEST MOTION...THE FORECAST TURNS KEVIN NORTHWARD BY 24

HOURS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL NORTHEASTWARD TURN AT SLOW SPEED

THROUGH DAY 4. BY DAY 5...A VERY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS

INDICATED...DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. NEEDLESS TO

SAY...THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.

THE SHIPS AND LGEM CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE

DYNAMICAL INTENSITY AIDS. GIVEN RECENT ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS...THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL MODELS THROUGH 36

HOURS...SHOWING A PEAK AT 50 KT FOLLOWED BY A SLOW DECREASE LATER

IN THE PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATERS AND SHEAR BEGINS

TO INCREASE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 12.8N 122.2W 40 KT

12HR VT 30/0600Z 13.2N 122.9W 45 KT

24HR VT 30/1800Z 14.2N 122.9W 50 KT

36HR VT 31/0600Z 15.1N 122.7W 50 KT

48HR VT 31/1800Z 16.1N 122.2W 45 KT

72HR VT 01/1800Z 17.5N 121.5W 40 KT

96HR VT 02/1800Z 18.5N 120.5W 35 KT

120HR VT 03/1800Z 19.5N 120.5W 30 KT

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Cookie]

I might by miles off but could this interact with JIMENA at some point?

[Somerset Squall]

To some degree Cookie, it looks likely. Kevin's track will become increasingly influenced by Jimena, in fact, Kevin is forecasted to be pulled northeastwards towards Jimena. Kevin has managed to modestly strengthen to 45kts, but is now suffering easterly shear, possibly from the outflow of Major Hurricane Jimena to the east. This will cap any further intensification and will eventually serve to weaken the storm.

[Somerset Squall]

Dry air has fully wrapped around the circulation of Kevin, causing a significant loss of convection over the last 24hrs. As a result, Kevin has been downgraded to a 30kt tropical depression. Kevin is creeping north-northeast at 5kts, and Kevin may slow further as steering currents remain weak. Unless convection makes a comeback soon, Kevin will be declared a remnant low.

[Cookie]

not a remnant low just yet

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 16.7N 121.7W 30 KT

12HR VT 01/0000Z 17.2N 121.5W 25 KT

24HR VT 01/1200Z 17.7N 121.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

36HR VT 02/0000Z 18.0N 121.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

48HR VT 02/1200Z 18.3N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

72HR VT 03/1200Z 18.5N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

96HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Cookie]

Had a wee bit of fight let in him earlier but has gone again, looks like game over but you never say never.