Major Hurricane Jimena

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 94E has become Tropical Storm Jimena, just off the coast of Mexico. Jimena consists of a tightly wound LLC with an impressive (but small) central dense overcast feature. With a favourable environment of low shear and hot waters (around 32C), Jimena has the potential to become a hurricane, with some models indicating a major hurricane over the next few days. Jimena is forecast to move northwestwards long the southwestern periphery of a ridge entrenched over Mexico. This will bring Jimena over cooler waters in about 3 days time as it nears Baja California. As Jimena has the potential to become intense, it's worth noting that any jog northeastwards will bring the storm dangerously close the coast of Mexico, so residents should be wary of Jimena.

[MAF]

Latest report from NHC

...JIMENA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES...ALMOST A HURRICANE...

AT 600 AM PDT...1300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST OR ABOUT 270

MILES...430 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 345 MILES...

555 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. THIS

GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS

EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48

HOURS AND JIMENA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 600 AM PDT INFORMATION...

LOCATION...14.2N 102.8W

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

[Somerset Squall]

Jimena is now a 70kt hurricane! Amazing rate of intensification. Major hurricane seems very likely. Latest from NHC:

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009

800 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009

JIMENA HAS BEEN UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT AND

RECENTLY A SMALL EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS

BECOME APPARENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SPECIAL DVORAK

CLASSIFICATION AT 1345 UTC FROM TAFB INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM WAS

NEAR 65 KT...AND THE LATEST OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE SUGGESTING 70

TO 75 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 70 KT FOR THIS

ADVISORY. THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE

FOR CONTINUED RAPID STRENGTHENING...WITH VERY WARM SSTS OVER

30C...VERY HIGH MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY AND LOW SHEAR. THE SHIPS RAPID

INTENSIFICATION INDEX IS FORECASTING A 95 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 35 KT

INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE HIGHEST VALUE I HAVE EVER

SEEN. IN ADDITION...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM BECOMING EITHER

A CATEGORY THREE OR FOUR HURRICANE. THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

WILL SHOW CONTINUED RAPID STRENGTHENING...SHOWING A 35-KT INCREASE

FROM THE 1200 UTC SYNOPTIC INTENSITY OF 60 KT. SSTS DECREASE IN THE

LONG-RANGE...AND WEAKENING IS SHOWN AFTER DAY 3.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/08. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MEXICO

SHOULD PROVIDE THE STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR

JIMENA...WITH THE HURRICANE LIKELY MAKING A NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN A

DAY OR TWO AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME BIG DISCREPANCIES IN HOW MUCH THAT RIDGE

WEAKENS DUE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE GFDL/HWRF SHOW ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO TURN JIMENA

NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW...POISING A SIGNIFICANT

THREAT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA OR WESTERN MEXICO. ALL OF THE OTHER

GUIDANCE MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A RIDGE BETWEEN THAT TROUGH AND JIMENA

TO CONTINUE A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF THE

HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. IN PREVIOUS YEARS...THE HWRF/GFDL HAVE

HAD AN EASTWARD BIAS FOR THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...AND THEIR CURRENT

FORECASTS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING WESTWARD WITH TIME. THE NHC

FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD...BUT IS NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE MODEL

CONSENSUS. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE FURTHER WESTWARD

ADJUSTMENTS LATER ON...ESPECIALLY IF THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS

COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 14.3N 103.2W 70 KT

12HR VT 30/0000Z 14.6N 104.4W 85 KT

24HR VT 30/1200Z 15.0N 105.7W 95 KT

36HR VT 31/0000Z 15.6N 106.9W 105 KT

48HR VT 31/1200Z 16.7N 108.2W 115 KT

72HR VT 01/1200Z 19.5N 111.0W 115 KT

96HR VT 02/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W 90 KT

120HR VT 03/1200Z 25.0N 117.0W 55 KT

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

Satellite imagery shows a possible pinhole eye!

[kold weather]

Just a quickie about this one.

Over the past few hours this has utterly exploded, deep convection has erupted all over the system and a pinhole eye is starting to show itself. I wouldn't normally mention this with most systems but a category-5 seems very possible with this system. Small and very tightly wounded up, very deep impressive convection in the hottest waters of the EPAC with VERY favorable conditions aloft all screams RI occuring and I see no reason why it can't make it to the holy ground of category-5...

I suspect this one is already stronger then the NHC have it at, I'd imagine anywhere between 100-110mph seems reasonable IMO given the explosive presentation...as you can see I'm being very bullish with this one!

[Cookie]

Looks like this could be a monster

Edited August 29, 2009 by cookie

[MAF]

massive change over the day to what i read about it this morning. NHC was giving 97% chance of getting to Cat1 but very low percentage of it increasing. now they have it with a 44% for a cat 3 by monday

[MAF]

very latest Satty image

Edited August 29, 2009 by MAF

[Somerset Squall]

Latest satellite imagery estimates show Jimena is continuing to bomb, latest estimate shows 90kts.

[MAF]

latest updates

CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DURING THE

NEXT 48 HR...AS JIMENA WILL BE OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE ONLY

POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR AT THE MOMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF

EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO

BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THIS TIME...AND THE NEW INTENSITY

FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KT IN 36 HR. IT

IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT

CYCLES THAT JIMENA COULD GET STRONGER THAN THAT. ON THE FORECAST

TRACK...JIMENA WOULD REACH COOLER SSTS AFTER 48 HR...WHICH SHOULD

CAUSE THE STORM TO WEAKEN. THE LONGER-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS

LOW CONFIDENCE...AS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND INTERACTION AND

INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER 72 HR MAKE THE FORECAST MORE

PROBLEMATIC.

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS

GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN

FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST

TRACK...THE CENTER OF JIMENA WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT OFFSHORE

OF...THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48

HOURS...AND JIMENA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

[kold weather]

Has now been upgraded to Major Hurricane Jimena, looking very pwoerful again after slight slacking of strengthening during the overnight hours. Very small pinhole eye once again has developed with this system and very cold eyewall cloud tops have also developed, its looking very powerful right now, I'd guess based on current looks this could well possibly be a cat-4 right now. Dvorak estimates always struggle with pinhole eyes as their resolution just isn't good enough, for example with Wilma it was estimating about 105kts for it, when at the time it was breaking the Atlantic pressure record...

Anyway this looks to be a possible landfalling threat, I'm not totally sure where though as the models are still shifting right, Baja looks most likely but the hurricane models have nailed the track thus far and they have this hitting Mexico mainland, either way this could be a major landfalling hurricane, will be interesting to watch!

[MAF]

Yes Kold, the track has changed slightly and i see the travel/speed is expected to slow as well. given the warm waters it is going over, a slowing will possibly increase strength

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK INCREASES THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA

CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA AND WESTERN MEXICO

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA. A WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR

A PORTION OF THAT AREA LATER TODAY.

AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST OR ABOUT 305

MILES...490 KM...SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 550 MILES

...885 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS

GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE

CENTER OF JIMENA WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT OFFSHORE OF...THE WEST

COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE

ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST

DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...AND JIMENA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY

FOUR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

[MAF]

latest update, getting stronger and may be a problem at landfall

...JIMENA INTENSIFIES FURTHER...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST OR ABOUT 285

MILES...460 KM...SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 515 MILES

...825 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A

GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE

INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JIMENA

IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Somerset Squall]

Impressive!

[tinybill]

dont know why its all kicking off down there at the moment first signs of the change over of seasons?

[Somerset Squall]

Well, it's the peak of the hurricane season Tinybill. Plus, Jimena is moving over a section of the basin that no other hurricane has moved over so far, so she is moving over hot, undisturbed waters which has allowed Jimena to become as stong as she has.

Jimena has continued to intensify, albeit more slowly now. Intensity is estimated at 125kts, making Jimena the strongest hurricane so far in the 2009 East Pacific season, surpassing Felicia, and also making it the strongest since Hurricane Daniel in 2006.

Jimena could intensify a little more over the next 24hrs over the hot waters and low shear. Of course, intensity chances in intense hurricanes such as this is very hard to predict and are often governed by eywall replacement cycles, which are also hard to predict. Recon are being flown in this afternoon to get a better gauge on intensification. Beyond 24hrs, shear will increase, which will cause weakening, albeit slow. It probably won't be enough to prevent Jimena potentially making landfall as a major hurricane on the southern tip of Baja California. Even if there was a deviation in track left or right it still appears Baja are in for a very bumpy rise and that's putting it mildly too. I'm sure the west coast of Mexico in the adjoining area are very wary of Jimena too. Not looking good this at all. East Pacific hurricanes are characterised by wondering west-northwestwards out to sea and not harming anyone. This doesn't look to be the case here. Looks like one of those uncommon major landfalls here.

Edited August 31, 2009 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

Hurricane Watch for Southern Baja California

TCPEP3

BULLETIN

HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 10

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009

800 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JIMENA GROWS STRONGER...HURRICANE WATCH

ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA....

A 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A

HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA. THE WATCH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE

WEST COAST AROUND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD

TO SAN EVARISTO ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY

WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN AND

CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

JIMENA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE

AREAS TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...

INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST

OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE

UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST OR ABOUT 255

MILES...410 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT

445 MILES...715 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A

GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE

NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE

FORECAST TRACK...JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF

THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH...

230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JIMENA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS

CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME

FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70

MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...

LOCATION...17.0N 107.2W

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200

AM PDT.

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN

000

WTPZ43 KNHC 310238

TCDEP3

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009

800 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009

THE STRUCTURE OF JIMENA CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SMALL EYE

EMBEDDED WITHIN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. OUTFLOW IS

EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND TOPS WITHIN THE CDO HAVE CONTINUED

TO COOL. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS WERE 6.5 FROM TAFB AND 6.0 FROM SAB AT

0000 UTC...AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CI-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN NEAR 6.5 FOR

SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THE INCREASING TREND IN THE SATELLITE

ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 125 KT. CONTINUED

STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS JIMENA WILL

BE IN AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...IF AN

EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OCCURS IT WOULD LIKELY HALT ANY

INTENSIFICATION...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. GIVEN THE LIMITED

PREDICTABILITY OF THESE INNER-CORE CHANGES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE SHORT-TERM. AROUND 48

HOURS...INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION

WITH LAND SHOULD CAUSE JIMENA TO WEAKEN. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE

TRACK...AND HOW MUCH THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND...INTRODUCES

ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY INTO THE INTENSITY FORECAST LATER IN THE

PERIOD.

JIMENA HAS CONTINUED TO EXHIBIT TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES FOR THE PAST FEW

HOURS. THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/06...A LITTLE TO

THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN JIMENA

AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N 112W WILL BE

CRITICAL TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE HURRICANE. THE MID- TO

UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST

PERIOD...AND THE GFS...NOGAPS...GFDL...GFDN...AND HWRF SUGGEST THAT

IT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL JIMENA NORTHWARD TOWARD THE

BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS...INCLUDING THE

ECMWF...UKMET...AND CANADIAN WEAKEN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND

TURN JIMENA TOWARD THE WEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH

OF THE CYCLONE. THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION 1800 UTC GFS PARALLEL

ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS THE MORE EASTWARD TRACK SCENARIO...WHILE THE

1200 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK.

HOWEVER...THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN THE SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD

NORTH OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN POSITION...SUGGESTING THAT A

SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF THE MEMBERS HAVE A TRACK CLOSER TO BAJA. THE

MULTI-MODEL TRACK CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE MORE EASTWARD

SCENARIO...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH HAS BEEN

SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST FOR THIS PACKAGE.

BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH

IS REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY DANGEROUS

HURRICANE NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INDICATES THAT THERE IS CURRENTLY A

20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING OVER THE

BAJA PENINSULA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LORETO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND

SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

JIMENA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE

AREAS TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0300Z 17.0N 107.2W 125 KT

12HR VT 31/1200Z 17.8N 108.0W 130 KT

24HR VT 01/0000Z 19.2N 109.1W 130 KT

36HR VT 01/1200Z 21.3N 110.2W 125 KT

48HR VT 02/0000Z 23.4N 111.0W 120 KT

72HR VT 03/0000Z 27.0N 112.5W 65 KT...INLAND

96HR VT 04/0000Z 28.6N 113.5W 40 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 05/0000Z 29.0N 115.0W 25 KT

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN

[MAF]

latest update... next one due 3 1/2 hour's time

THE EYE HAS BEEN COMING AND GOING ON INFRARED IMAGERY AND...BASED ON

MICROWAVE IMAGERY...APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE LARGER THAN IT WAS

YESTERDAY. THE MICROWAVE IMAGES EARLIER THIS MORNING ALSO

SUGGESTED THAT JIMENA MAY HAVE UNDERGONE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT.

DVORAK SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A

LITTLE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...SO JIMENA MAY HAVE WEAKENED

SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER...I WILL HOLD THE CURRENT INTENSITY AT 125 KT

UNTIL AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE INVESTIGATES THE HURRICANE A LITTLE

LATER TODAY AND GIVES US SOME IN SITU MEASUREMENTS. THE WATERS ARE

WARM ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AFTER ABOUT

24 HOURS AND WITH REDUCED OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. ALSO...THE GLOBAL

MODELS INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN 24-48

HOURS. HOWEVER NONE OF THESE FACTOR ARE LIKELY TO PREVENT JIMENA

FROM REMAINING A MAJOR HURRICANE UP TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL

INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...WHICH

HISTORICALLY HAVE BEEN OUR BEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 315/7. THE STEERING SCENARIO

REMAINS MORE OR LESS THE SAME. JIMENA IS LIKELY TO MOVE BETWEEN A

MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL

CYCLONE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE DYNAMICAL

TRACK PREDICTION MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE

NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL

AND THE LOW-RESOLUTION GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH ARE CONSIDERED

WESTERN OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME. IN FACT...THE MEAN OF THE

HIGHER-RESOLUTION PARALLEL RUN OF THE GFS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE

MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY

SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT FAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

BASED ON THE FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A

HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND A HURRICANE WATCH FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE BAJA

PENINSULA.

very latest image, taken 30 minutes ago

1800Z

Edited August 31, 2009 by MAF

[Paranoid]

000

WTPZ33 KNHC 311757

TCPEP3

BULLETIN

HURRICANE JIMENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009

1100 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2009

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JIMENA STRONGER...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE

BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE

WEST COAST...AND FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...

INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24

HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED

TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

NORTH OF BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA ABREOJOS...AND

NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE

WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH

AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN

WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS

LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR

LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST OR ABOUT 340

MILES...545 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND A

TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST

TRACK...JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA

CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.

REPORTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. JIMENA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON

THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE

POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80

MILES...130 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT

IS 936 MB...27.63 INCHES.

JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10

INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND

PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE

ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.

A STORM SURGE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES WILL

PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT INFORMATION...

LOCATION...18.1N 108.9W

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, now 130kts, which is not far off cat 5. Jimena still might become a cat 5 as it has another 24hrs of the hottest waters and low shear. An eye wall replacement cycle seems to have taken place so if Jimena is to make cat 5 she needs to do it now. Regardless of whether Jimena is a cat 3, 4 or 5 at landfall, Baja need to brace themselves for dangerous flooding and very damaging winds.

[Paranoid]

Borderline Cat 5 strength now, only needs a little extra strengthening.

000

WTPZ33 KNHC 312033

TCPEP3

BULLETIN

HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 13

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009

200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009

...JIMENA ALMOST A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE

BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE

WEST COAST...AND FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...

INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24

HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED

TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

NORTH OF BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA ABREOJOS...AND

NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE

WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH

AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN

WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST OR ABOUT

305 MILES...495 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND A

TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...

JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA

CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE

THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...

WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND VERY NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY FIVE

STATUS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT

DAY OR SO...BUT JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE

UNTIL LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140

MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE

HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.

JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10

INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND

PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE

ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.

A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES WILL PRODUCE

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...

LOCATION...18.5N 109.2W

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800

PM PDT.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

[MAF]

still not a cat 5... but close to it

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE JUST COMPLETED THEIR

MISSION IN JIMENA...AND FOUND THAT THE HURRICANE WAS STRONGER THAN

PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 149 KT

AND THE MAXIMUM SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WINDS WERE 132 KT OVER THE

NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE SFMR ALSO MEASURED 128 KT IN THE NORTHWEST

EYEWALL AND 125 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE EYEWALL. A MINIMUM

CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 931 MB WAS MEASURED BY DROPSONDE. THE CURRENT

INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 135 KT...AT THE VERY HIGH END OF

CATEGORY 4 STATUS. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE

NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO INNER CORE EVENTS...PRIMARILY EYEWALL

REPLACEMENTS. HOWEVER THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES A GRADUAL DECREASE

IN OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND SOME INCREASE IN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY

SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER THESE ENVIRONMENTAL

INFLUENCES SHOULD NOT PREVENT JIMENA FROM MAINTAINING MAJOR

HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY

FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.

AFTER WOBBLING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD A FEW HOURS AGO...THE MOTION IS

BACK TO NORTHWEST OR 315/9. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE

TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. JIMENA IS LIKELY TO MOVE BETWEEN A

MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL

CYCLONE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE U.K. MET.

OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...LIKE THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...PREVIOUSLY

WESTERN OUTLIERS...HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD AND ARE NOW IN GENERAL

AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. HOWEVER THE U.K. AND

ECMWF ARE STILL SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ABOUT IN THE

MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL SUITE.

latest satty image

[kold weather]

Given the presentation was as close to perfect as you could probably get yesterday and isn't quite as perfect today (eye hasn't been quite so clear) and yet we still have a borderline 5 is strongly suggestive that this was actually a category-5 yesterday, alas without recon though we will never know how strong it was yesterday.

[MAF]

i am inclined to believe that too KW.

was just reading this and wondered if landfall will have any effect to the situation

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8230540.stm

Edited August 31, 2009 by MAF

[Cookie]

Nature at her most fierce

[MAF]

how close to been called a Cat 5 can it get?

Category Five Hurricane:

Sustained winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Catastrophic damage is expected. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings will occur. Some complete building failures with small buildings blown over or away are likely. All signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes (built in any year). Severe and extensive window and door damage will occur. Nearly all windows in high rise buildings will be dislodged and become airborne. Severe injury or death is likely for persons struck by wind-blown debris. Nearly all trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT INFORMATION...

LOCATION...18.8N 109.2W

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB