Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Lrf And Agw Bias?


Recommended Posts

Guest North Sea Snow Convection

The solar cycle adjustment is interesting within that report - more evidence to show that the minimum has been/is underestimated. Irrespective of todays suggestion of the spotless streak being broken.

worth monitoring this link for future 'tweakings'. If they happen slowly enough I guess people won't noticewink.gif

Edited by North Sea Snow Convection
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

A little more research on the GLOSEA product from which the (UK and anywhere else they want to sell their products) seasonal forecasts are taken, has come up with the following from the Met Office

[snip]

Yes, but an overall assessment of their forecasts versus results over an extended period of time, should establish whether or not the methods they use are sufficient, regardless of the detail?

The solar cycle adjustment is interesting within that report

Solar irradiance is key to climate. I do not think anyone disagrees with that. However, my suspicion is that such a thing, given sensitivity to intitial conditions is that it has more of an impact than has been factored in.

Of course, these guys do this sort of modelling for a living - I do not. So, it is entirely possible that I am wrong; but, for now, I can't get away from what I have observed, and have experimentally shown to correlate with the LI - that is, solar irradiance, or sunspots (which have their associated light spots) cause small but significant differences to the climate we feel here on Earth.

As I write up the LI, I am sure I will come to some conclusion or another. I have to admit I am stuck on some fundamentals (it's much more difficult to write up stuff for consumption other than a forum like this) but, to me, it still looks good. And compelling.

As for bias in forecasts - my opinion is, if it increases the skill, then it is entirely justified. Surely, we just want a good forecast?

Edited by VillagePlank
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Yes, but an overall assessment of their forecasts versus results over an extended period of time, should establish whether or not the methods they use are sufficient, regardless of the detail?

Solar irradiance is key to climate. I do not think anyone disagrees with that. However, my suspicion is that such a thing, given sensitivity to intitial conditions is that it has more of an impact than has been factored in.

Of course, these guys do this sort of modelling for a living - I do not. So, it is entirely possible that I am wrong; but, for now, I can't get away from what I have observed, and have experimentally shown to correlate with the LI - that is, solar irradiance, or sunspots (which have their associated light spots) cause small but significant differences to the climate we feel here on Earth.

As I write up the LI, I am sure I will come to some conclusion or another. I have to admit I am stuck on some fundamentals (it's much more difficult to write up stuff for consumption other than a forum like this) but, to me, it still looks good. And compelling.

As for bias in forecasts - my opinion is, if it increases the skill, then it is entirely justified. Surely, we just want a good forecast?

Your own enquiries and research is interesting - credit is due to yousmile.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs

Yes, but an overall assessment of their forecasts versus results over an extended period of time, should establish whether or not the methods they use are sufficient, regardless of the detail?

Solar irradiance is key to climate. I do not think anyone disagrees with that. However, my suspicion is that such a thing, given sensitivity to intitial conditions is that it has more of an impact than has been factored in.

Of course, these guys do this sort of modelling for a living - I do not. So, it is entirely possible that I am wrong; but, for now, I can't get away from what I have observed, and have experimentally shown to correlate with the LI - that is, solar irradiance, or sunspots (which have their associated light spots) cause small but significant differences to the climate we feel here on Earth.

As I write up the LI, I am sure I will come to some conclusion or another. I have to admit I am stuck on some fundamentals (it's much more difficult to write up stuff for consumption other than a forum like this) but, to me, it still looks good. And compelling.

As for bias in forecasts - my opinion is, if it increases the skill, then it is entirely justified. Surely, we just want a good forecast?

Fantastic stuff VP, look forward to reading your conclusions!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

Fantastic stuff VP, look forward to reading your conclusions!

I think so, but you need to be careful; the LI is a hypothesis, and not much more. There is quite a bit of difficult pure mathematics which underpins the assumptions which you need to get to, in order to accept the LI hypothesis. It will live or die, I guess, on it's extrapolative power. And that, as I am sure everyone will agree, is not an easy thing to do. At all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...