Storm/convection Discussion

[Noctilucid]

Westerly change has moved through, replacing the mid level instability with clearer skies and a lot of low level cumulus, not looking good for storms.

[Harry]

Westerly change has moved through, replacing the mid level instability with clearer skies and a lot of low level cumulus, not looking good for storms.

Has it? Yes we've lost a lot of the cloud but I am pretty sure the CF hasn't gone through yet

Clouding over nicely in Paris at the moment - as usual, Frogs get all the fun again (Never has the expression resonated in my mind so much as the last few months!!)

http://www.paris-live.com/paris_webcam/eiffel_tower_cam3.htm

Edited August 24, 2009 by Harry

[maidstone weather]

Has it? Yes we've lost a lot of the cloud but I am pretty sure the CF hasn't gone through yet

Clouding over nicely in Paris at the moment - as usual, Frogs get all the fun again (Never has the expression resonated in my mind so much as the last few months!!)

http://www.paris-liv..._tower_cam3.htm

a LOT breezier now, air feels a little fresher (not much, just a little )

EDIT: Altocumulus is back!

Edited August 24, 2009 by maidstone weather

[Harry]

a LOT breezier now, air feels a little fresher (not much, just a little )

EDIT: Altocumulus is back! :lol:

Yep can see Ac to my SE - still thinking it might be too little too late (we can dream though lol)

Note the picturesque storm feed from Paris!!

Also - there is any area of light (pathetic, lol) rain running up from France now! I suppose our only shot at anything is if this turns more intense - otherwise, c'est ca!!

Edited August 24, 2009 by Harry

[Neilsouth]

Well i did say! , perchance another day... again :|

[Noctilucid]

The low level winds have strengthened and gone Westerly here ahead of the cold front, but its still clear here.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

We've had cloud on and off here all day. Very humid and opressive earlier (which affects me in the same way as others have described - drowsy and lacklustre). Now a touch fresher I think, but no sign of storms.

Edited August 24, 2009 by chrisbell0033944

[Costa Del Fal]

Looks to me that there maybe a small oppurtunity for a storm or tow across Wales and parts of the Midlands on Friday. Still time for change but there are very decent lapse rates, marginal Cape, good TT Index etc.

[Coast]

Nothing - not even a rain shower and as far as I can see not one strike in the UK all day yesterday

More lessons to be learnt here as this is one of several possible storm days that have turned out empty again.

Bearing in mind:

1) ESTOFEX had us highlighted not just with a watch, but a considerable area under a Level 1!

2) GFS had been showing potential for at least two weeks

3) UKMO had much of the UK under threat from a couple of days ago

4) Several forecast websites were indicating UK areas to watch for storms, some were touting a chance of a tornado (low risk)

5) The 12Z Skew T was marginal, but had encouraging elements

6) It felt like a storm was imminent!

Again I am willing to admit enthusiasm, inexperience and excitement clouded judgment (mine certainly) but perhaps someone could explain why we got a 'no show' so I can look out for the signs next time?

[dogs32]

heavy showers growing in the West at present moving East ward's

[Coast]

Off out and about today so no time for a round up, but I notice ESTOFEX has all of Ireland under a level 1 today - I wonder if they will get nothing, like us yesterday?????

[Harry]

I think the Estofex L1 for Ireland is VERY similar to our forecast yesterday. It is not so much that thunderstorms/thundery showers are LIKELY, but saying should any showers/storms forming from the effect of the approaching depression (Bill I presume) and the convergence of the very humid air with the fresher air within (the occlusion point), that due to very high shear, tornadoes would be a very real possibility!!

[Harry]

I should may be start a new thread for this - but considering the PANTS month we've had, the charts a pointing at something rather exciting (at this stage 7 days on btw!!!) to crack off September!!

See what you make of it...

IMO - CRACKLY CRACK de de BANG BANG BOOOOOOOMMMM!!!! (Now that is onomatopoeia!)

Edited August 25, 2009 by Harry

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

See what you make of it...

IMO - CRACKLY CRACK de de BANG BANG BOOOOOOOMMMM!!!! (Now that is onomatopoeia!)

Ever the optimist :-)

but you could be right, as that's the day after I go back to work

Edited August 25, 2009 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[John Hanrahan]

I think the Estofex L1 for Ireland is VERY similar to our forecast yesterday. It is not so much that thunderstorms/thundery showers are LIKELY, but saying should any showers/storms forming from the effect of the approaching depression (Bill I presume) and the convergence of the very humid air with the fresher air within (the occlusion point), that due to very high shear, tornadoes would be a very real possibility!!

That would be nice

[Harry]

Line of showers about to arrive in London - some heavier bursts within the very narrow band.

There was some very noticeable convection around this morning at low levels - the sky resembling that which follows a big summer storm. Skies at the moment showing some signs of this, so hopefully a pleasantly heavy downpour in the next half hour or so.

[BrickFielder]

Had a look at some forecast skewt's for today and cloud tops looked limited. Perhaps a slight risk towards east anglia and lincolnshire but not worth a forecast.

Estofex's level 1 is for the triple point of ex hurricane bill crossing Ireland. If there is some instability and it crosses at the right time then the potential is there for tornado development. Looking at the models at the moment though would suggest instability is too weak.

[SteveB]

Nothing here other than light showers.

I would have thought thats how the rest of the day is going to pan out.

Edited August 25, 2009 by SteveB

[CardiffStorm]

Had some fairly heavy rain earlier but has now brightened up and is feeling quite humid, kinda feels like after rain when your on holiday if you get me.

Also, looks like a quite heavy line of showers just North of Bournemouth atm, heading East.

Edited August 25, 2009 by jamo_s

[Mark.C]

Hi all, not sure if this is the right thread to post this in but does anyone know how i can find out the height of the cloud tops around the country, thanks.

[Costa Del Fal]

The other end of the shower about to hit here has some sferics on it.

[Costa Del Fal]

Occasional loud crackles on the AM Radio, some rain is now falling.

EDIT: Really sudden crackles on the AM Radio now and a bit more frequent.

Edited August 25, 2009 by Blizzards

[Costa Del Fal]

Thunder now in Kidderminster-not far now

[A.J]

diddly squat here, but I can see a nice anvil way off to the west (southwest?) of Brum, looks very well defined

[Costa Del Fal]

Lovely wispy top to what i think is a big anvil right above us!

Think i just heard a faint and distant rumble.