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Epac: Tropical Storm Hilda (11E)

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we now have Hilda in the east pacific

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not looking great though

20090822.2200.goes11.x.vis1km_high.11EHILDA.35kts-1006mb-135N-1373W.100pc.jpg

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Indeed Cookie, peristant noertheasterly shear is a problem for Hilda. This has removed convection from the centre and left it partially exposed. However, waters are warm and moisture high, so at least some slow intensification will occur. Hilda's intensity has been upped to 40kts as convection has really flared up this morning in response to that moisture and warm waters. Hilda will be moving into the Central Pacific very soon, yet another storm moving near Hawaii- though it should pass to the south.

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Hilda continues to gradually intensify. Intensity is now at 45kts. Curved banding is now wrapping much more healthily around the well defined LLC, and Hilda has a more symmetric look. Moderate northerly shear will continue to hamper intensification, but is forecast to ease in a few days time.

post-1820-125106458205_thumb.jpg

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quite a wee system to what we have seen of late ( bill, flecia, morkort)

20090823.2030.goes11.x.ir1km.11EHILDA.45kts-1003mb-139N-1415W.100pc.jpg

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Hilda is doing very well for a system in sheared conditions. Hilda has further strengthened to 55kts. The storm is now expected to become a hurricane, and unless shear increases, this could be a long tracker, perhaps getting into the Western Pacific late this week. Future intensity will be governed to a degree by the shear as waters remain toasty on the westward track, and is expected to ease in a few days time. If this happens, Hilda has a chance to become the third major hurricane in a row originating in the Eastern Pacific (Hilda is currently in the Central Pacific).

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Very busy season for The central Pacific

hilda200908242030.jpg

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shes been up against the ropes, but refuseing to give up.

hilda200908252130.jpg

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Yup, Hilda battles on through adverse conditions. Shear has now eased, but in your latest image Cookie you can see Hilda's next problem- dry air. You can see this being pulled into the northern side of the circulation with the majority of convection lumped towards the southern quadrant. Intensity has been reduced to 45kts. Low shear and warm sea temps will allow Hilda to restrengthen if it overcomes the dry air. It can do this by moving into a moister environment or mixing out the dry air through an outflow channel. However, it's very hard to predict whether Hilda will do either of these things, so predicting future intensity is difficult. One thing is for certain though, it's not so clear cut Hilda becoming a hurricane now. Chances are reducing.

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Hilda is maintaining a small area of convection near the centre. Intensity has further dropped to 40kts since last night. Dry air still seems to be the primary problem for Hilda as conditions are otherwise favourable. In a couple days time, shear is expected to increase to moderate levels again which will further cap any chances of significant re-intensification. CPHC maintain Hilda as a weak tropical storm for the next five days as warm waters combat moderate levels of shear. Hilda will brush very close to Johnston Atoll in a few days time, but Hilda is forecast to remain weak at this point.

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Hilda has continued to suffer at the hands of moderate shear and dry air intrusion. The cyclone has been downgraded to a 30kt tropical depression. A small cell of convection remains near the centre, and Hilda's life really is in the balance. As the environment is expected to remain dry, Hilda may well degnerate into a remnant low- sooner rather than later.

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