Convective/storm Discussion 5Th August >>

[Harry]

18z worse than the 12z and 6z for Kent!

Indeed it does - it has intensified the pulse of rain/storms tomorrow night (could even be an MCS looking at the precip chart), but has pushed it West. Friday CAPE/LI still too far East on Friday...not looking great for us here IMO...but seeing how much the forecast has changed in the last 12 hours, I expect it to read different again tomorrow morning and during the course of the day.

[StormChaser]

Indeed it does - it has intensified the pulse of rain/storms tomorrow night (could even be an MCS looking at the precip chart), but has pushed it West. Friday CAPE/LI still too far East on Friday...not looking great for us here IMO...but seeing how much the forecast has changed in the last 12 hours, I expect it to read different again tomorrow morning and during the course of the day.

Haha sorry for once i can say bad luck to you guys in kent! Even if i dont get anything;)

[Harry]

Haha sorry for once i can say bad luck to you guys in kent! Even if i dont get anything;)

A hot and humid 29C for us today, 27-28C quite easy again for us tomorrow (maybe higher) - 23-24C at the very most for Oxfordshire...I fancy our chances still

Right...I am off to bed I think...hopefully the charts reading more pleasantly tomorrow morning

Edited August 5, 2009 by Harry

[Tn9]

don't worry Harry, it's long been known that if you have a MetO warning nothing ever happens. Several times 'widespread' warnings have been issued with the exception of Kent, yet it is Kent that sees the action (27th June ring a bell? )

As long as its not a 25th of May,i could not be doing with that,you know what happened then

[maidstone weather]

oh Harry....

http://estofex.org/c...ormforecast.xml

was a Level1 one last year, methinks it won't be the same this year

Edited August 5, 2009 by maidstone weather

[CardiffStorm]

and Jupiter to the bottom left of the moon too!

wow, cant believe im looking at Jupiter.

Also, ESTOFEX have put up their forcast for tomorrow.

[A.J]

Interesting met Office FAX charts for midnight tomorrow..It sending the front further westwards with a nice wave along it, with a trough in place over EA/SE england...It'll be interesting to see how FAX & GFS pan out on the next couple of runs (00z & 06z)..Another shunt of say, 50 miles westwards will bring the midlands into play

[Wilxy92]

wow, cant believe im looking at Jupiter.

Also, ESTOFEX have put up their forcast for tomorrow.

I see it too

[dogs32]

Interesting met Office FAX charts for midnight tomorrow..It sending the front further westwards with a nice wave along it, with a trough in place over EA/SE england...It'll be interesting to see how FAX & GFS pan out on the next couple of runs (00z & 06z)..Another shunt of say, 50 miles westwards will bring the midlands into play

yes AJ my eyes have been watching this slowly drift more Westwards....

like you say only the next few runs to see if we stand a chance...

As it is, Oxford is not far away from me at present

[A.J]

Would love that to happen (obviously), but that's asking a tad too much...just a tad

Is 50 miles really too far??....after all, its only about an inch on a map....lol

Joking aside, I am actually starting to gain a bit more interest in the forecast for our area, the more I look at the charts...Maybe its me, but I've seen a more westerly trend over the last few runs...Anyhoos, time will tell

yes AJ my eyes have been watching this slowly drift more Westwards....

like you say only the next few runs to see if we stand a chance...

As it is, Oxford is not far away from me at present

Sorry Pat, just seen your post...Yep, you're seeing what I'm seeing then

[dogs32]

Is 50 miles really too far??....after all, its only about an inch on a map....lol

Joking aside, I am actually starting to gain a bit more interest in the forecast for our area, the more I look at the charts...Maybe its me, but I've seen a more westerly trend over the last few runs...Anyhoos, time will tell

Sorry Pat, just seen your post...Yep, you're seeing what I'm seeing then

yes....but not hoping to much at present...but like you slowly taking note of the more westerly shift and wide expansion of the precip forecast

[CardiffStorm]

Interesting met Office FAX charts for midnight tomorrow..It sending the front further westwards with a nice wave along it, with a trough in place over EA/SE england...It'll be interesting to see how FAX & GFS pan out on the next couple of runs (00z & 06z)..Another shunt of say, 50 miles westwards will bring the midlands into play

Am I right in remembering that to start with this possible storm was forcast for the midlands before it all started moving East. Maybe it'll head back to the midlands area.

[Costa Del Fal]

I doubt we will see something over the next day or two. Just the warm sunshine is nice i think.

Still warm now.

[dave48]

Been keeping an eye on stuff, few showers moving in from the channel, doesn't look like much at the moment but it wouldn't surprise me if there were a few sferics picked up at some point tonight.

A small chance for the south east over the next few days, as for the rest of us, doesn't look good for a while, especially with the high pressure moving in soon. If that doesn't end with a bang then that could be it for the summer storms.

Not noticed this heat myself here in Bath, it struggled up to somewhere around the 21 to 22 mark today and is about 15 now I think and not that humid here.

[*AL*]

I have been watching the precip building and approaching the south coast roughly Poole area, anyone else watching this?

[Lewis]

I have been watching the precip building and approaching the south coast roughly Poole area, anyone else watching this?

Yep im watching it. My eyes have been fixed on it for the past hour or two. Looks interesting with some cells develop further N into the Midlands. Sferics now picked up off the S coast

[sunny scunny]

I have been watching the precip building and approaching the south coast roughly Poole area, anyone else watching this?

Yeah ive been checking the radar quite a bit tonight,although im more interested in what happens later today

Not that my area needs any more rain though

[Lewis]

Yeah ive been checking the radar quite a bit tonight,although im more interested in what happens later today

Not that my area needs any more rain though

lol i totally agree, i have had like 90mm in the past 9 days, not bad ay!

[sunny scunny]

lol i totally agree, i have had like 90mm in the past 9 days, not bad ay!

It's great for the garden mate, with no more brown grass from lack of rainfall

[Sno' problem]

The cells to the south of Bournemouth are really picking up right now, could get interesting soon.

[Neilsouth]

The cells to the south of Bournemouth are really picking up right now, could get interesting soon.

They've just exploded in the last hr

http://www.meteox.nl/gmapstatic.aspx?zoom=6&type=zoom&x=174&y=283

Edited August 6, 2009 by neilsouth

[anvilhead]

IOW getting a pasting right now

Not sur if thats anaprop near bristol or not too - shows on both meto + nw radar though, but looks anaprop-ish..

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Got woke bout an hour ago by thunder. Slidded away eat just as it began to get interesting!Quiet active wee thing lots of rumbling. And now just general heavy rain.

[StormChaser]

Got woke bout an hour ago by thunder. Slidded away eat just as it began to get interesting!Quiet active wee thing lots of rumbling. And now just general heavy rain.

I got woken up by just heavy rain im not sure i herd any thunder:( but boy it did it rain tho! Its still very heavy rain.

Edited August 6, 2009 by StormChaser

[xerxes]

I got woken up by just heavy rain im not sure i herd any thunder:( but boy it did it rain tho! Its still very heavy rain.

awoken by thunder at 0400. Very heavy rain followed for appx 45 minutes. I expect that caused a lot of local flooding. Still some rain here but currently no thunder. Impressive radar returns