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Convective/storm Discussion 5Th August >>

Lewis

By Lewis
in Storms & Severe Weather

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PB22 Enthusiast

PB22

Posted
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
Posted

They use the same graphics, but, gven that Jim Bacon and (I think) Phil Garner are Weatherquest guys, I doubt they'd use MetO data, or at least, I'd expect them to put their own spin on it. In fact, thinking about it, Jools sometimes says "the computer's showing X, but actually, I think Y", which suggests that Jim and the WQ folks (including a namesake of myself) interpret it given their own data.

Yes you are probably right there. I will email Jim Bacon and ask him. :D

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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted (edited)

Yes you are probably right there. I will email Jim Bacon and ask him. :D

Good idea!

Yes, mw, I saw that too.

Actually, can I ask a stupid question? If this is a warm front, which normally gives light ppn, how is it causing electrical storms?

Edited by w0033944
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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted (edited)

Good idea!

Yes, mw, I saw that too.

Actually, can I ask a stupid question? If this is a warm front, which normally gives light ppn, how is it causing electrical storms?

Its not a stupid question at all - the front itself is actually by and large a cold front, but because it has stalled and is meandering back and forth (E-W) it's becoming a wave front (not sure the specific term, unless that's it), meaning that parts of it act as a warm front (warm air pushing west) where as in most areas of it is acting as a cold front (cooler air trying to push east).

The warm front was the cloud and drizzly rain that pushed up across C,S and E England early yesterday then up towards the NE.

Temps here, for anyone wondering what the fuss is about to the W of the front, is 24.5C (at 8pm)...this is probably the warmest/most humid airmass we've been under so far this year. Even when the temps were in the 30s at the end of June, the evenings cooled off quicker than this. All windows open, mozzies and tree bees will be out in force! And probably by tomorrow (not seen many yet), the thunder bugs will be out in their swarms!

I love the charts for tomorrow night (though expect them to change AGAIN) :D

Edited by Harry
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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted

Its not a stupid question at all - the front itself is actually by and large a cold front, but because it has stalled and is meandering back and forth (E-W) it's becoming a wave front (not sure the specific term, unless that's it), meaning that parts of it act as a warm front (warm air pushing west) where as in most areas of it is acting as a cold front (cooler air trying to push east).

The warm front was the cloud and drizzly rain that pushed up across C,S and E England early yesterday then up towards the NE.

Temps here, for anyone wondering what the fuss is about to the W of the front, is 24.5C (at 8pm)...this is probably the warmest/most humid airmass we've been under so far this year. Even when the temps were in the 30s at the end of June, the evenings cooled off quicker than this.

I love the charts for tomorrow night (though expect them to change AGAIN) :D

Brilliant - thanks for the info - I had long wondered how a front could be shown as warm and cold in different parts of the same front - now I know! :D

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted (edited)

Brilliant - thanks for the info - I had long wondered how a front could be shown as warm and cold in different parts of the same front - now I know! :D

I wouldnt take my post as gospel - I am not an expert/meteorologist by any stretch - this is how I understand it though :D

As for this cold front - I have attached the CAPE charts for Friday....IF ONLY that front could hang further West just a bit longer!! Look at what is expected up the plume of warm/humid air....in the words of Homer Simpson, hummana hummana hummana hummana!! Those LI's and CAPE values have the makings of an Estofex Zone 2/3 smacked all over it!

post-3790-12494994768369_thumb.png

Edited by Harry
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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted

I wouldnt take my post as gospel - I am not an expert/meteorologist by any stretch - this is how I understand it though :D

As for this cold front - I have attached the CAPE charts for Friday....IF ONLY that front could hang further West just a bit longer!! Look at what is expected up the plume of warm/humid air....in the words of Homer Simpson, hummana hummana hummana hummana!!

WOW! I thought CAPE values of 2500+ were a North American preserve?

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Phil UK Apprentice

Phil UK

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. UK
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. UK
Posted

The 'warm' part of a cold front is what is expected to be the thundery area as (as it says on the tin) warm and humid air follows behind it.

Also where the area of PPN and instability is at its most profound. Looking very touch and go for tonight into tomorrow though but I think the SE will see the best (if any) heavy rain/electrical activity. The timing is the key in this instance.

Paul B... Is that the same Jim Bacon who presented the BBC national weather forecasts from years gone by?

Phil.

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

WOW! I thought CAPE values of 2500+ were a North American preserve?

Im sure Paul S would clarify the States get 3000+ routinely, with up to 5000+ on occasions with LIs of over -10 or -11. That said those CAPE charts are still good for Europe...across E France/Germany region, the CAPE surpasses 3000!!!!!

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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted (edited)

Im sure Paul S would clarify the States get 3000+ routinely, with up to 5000+ on occasions with LIs of over -10 or -11. That said those CAPE charts are still good for Europe...across E France/Germany region, the CAPE surpasses 3000!!!!!

That's what made me remark about the CAPE value; 3000 or over even I know is big!

Edited by w0033944
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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Well that depends on other factors, I don't think it would be a 'Level 3' as that is given to 'extreme storms' of which are not that common. Level 1 and 2 will just about cover large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes. Level 3 will be severe versions of the above attributes. :D

Very true - not sure what the shear values are either. I would think with that much energy, and presumably some VERY high cloud tops, the presence of some strong shear, or even relatively weak shear, could help generate some fairly decent supercells (hence I'd expect a Zone 2 at the very least)...

I am interested to see how the next GFS run reacts with the anticipated slowing of the front. As of earlier this afternoon the CAPE zone comes perilously close to the 'Kent clipping zone'. Further westward shift and I will getting a boogy on towards Dover! Imagine the views of the cloud tops...last week illuminated my bedroom (with blinds down) from the middle of the channel..!!

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PB22 Enthusiast

PB22

Posted
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
Posted

Paul B... Is that the same Jim Bacon who presented the BBC national weather forecasts from years gone by?

Phil.

It is indeed. :D

Paul - any luck with the email to Jim B?

Awaiting reply...I will PM you when I get a reply. :D

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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted

It is indeed. :D

Awaiting reply...I will PM you when I get a reply. :D

Thanks Paul - I think Jim has enjoyed rather too much of his namesake foodstuff - he's rather heftier-looking than in the '80 when I was knee-high to the proverbial.

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Phil UK Apprentice

Phil UK

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. UK
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. UK
Posted

It is indeed. smile.gif

Thank you, Paul B. I thought he had retired or something.

Harry. I like your avatar. I've probably got more chance of seeing Lord Rayden in Mortal Kombat than I have of seeing any storm activity this week.

Probably will as I own both the MKI and MK Annihilation DVDs. :D

Phil.

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Moisty Newbie

Moisty

Posted
  • Location: Micheldever, Hants - north of Winchester
  • Location: Micheldever, Hants - north of Winchester
Posted

I'm a little confused, here in mid Hants we were told this morning that there is likely to be heavy showers by this time this evening but the skies are clear and it seems a little less humid than afternoon, so has the potential 'activity' moved eastwards? or will it wave back later tonight?

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Thank you, Paul B. I thought he had retired or something.

Harry. I like your avatar. I've probably got more chance of seeing Lord Rayden in Mortal Kombat than I have of seeing any storm activity this week.

Probably will as I own both the MKI and MK Annihilation DVDs. :D

Phil.

Cheers Phil, you gotta love Lord Rayden!! I too own MK1 and MK Annihilation, though on stone age VHS (I have had them 10 yrs though)

UKASF already out with the forecast for tomorrow, though like everyone else, is unsure, mainly with regards timing.

http://www.ukasf.co.uk/module-Storm/mode-forecast/id-248/

Is it me? or has suddenly got really humid here all of sudden?

Certainly not you - it has been very humid here for the last 48 hours or so. It is obviously still making tracks Westwards then.

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anvilhead Newbie

anvilhead

Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Location: Cirencester
Posted

Hey all..

I've just booked a eurostar to grenoble, france for a few days - getting there tomorrow evening - leaving tuesday - hopefully it'll be capetastic! - looking at the jet there could be a few supercells around in the next few days - any comments on what things will be like are welcome, unless they're saying that it wont be thundery .. i'd rather not know in that case lol

:D sam

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