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General Climate Change Discussion.......

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Guest diessoli

http://www.dailymail...ic-weather.html

Oh it's a-changing alright,but not in the direction *everyone* has been led to believe. Bored of saying it now,but it'll take a full-on ice-age before some realise/accept that the game is up.

No. It will take enough data (years) to calculate a statistically significant change of the trend.

D.

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This business about global warming causing unusual patterns resulting in extreme cold -- at some point, this becomes transparently ridiculous. I think that point has already been passed.

I'm sure warmists would not appreciate it, were it possible for me to invent a "reason" why global cooling had brought on the 2003 heat wave. I could probably string together something like cold air coming out of some other part of the world forced the warm air up over Europe, and who knows, I might even get a few takers for it.

But at some point, we need to restore some common sense to the argument, and confront those who are advancing these entirely implausible arguments -- global warming means warming, and long, extensive, widespread cold regimes are not foreseen in that paradigm. These are desperate times for the warmists, hope they didn't all convert to solar!

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This business about global warming causing unusual patterns resulting in extreme cold -- at some point, this becomes transparently ridiculous. I think that point has already been passed.

Roger, what's 'ridiculous' about these anomalies(the most recent available ending Dec 29th)?

anom29dec.jpg

Note that it has indeed be very cold across the Uk and some other parts of Europe, parts of N America and some other places and very warm in others.

I'm sure warmists would not appreciate it, were it possible for me to invent a "reason" why global cooling had brought on the 2003 heat wave. I could probably string together something like cold air coming out of some other part of the world forced the warm air up over Europe, and who knows, I might even get a few takers for it.

But at some point, we need to restore some common sense to the argument, and confront those who are advancing these entirely implausible arguments -- global warming means warming, and long, extensive, widespread cold regimes are not foreseen in that paradigm. These are desperate times for the warmists, hope they didn't all convert to solar!

Global warming mean a rise in average global temperatures over time, as a trend. As such what's happening atm in some places is part of a point on such a trend.

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Roger, what's 'ridiculous' about these anomalies(the most recent available ending Dec 29th)?

anom29dec.jpg

Note that it has indeed be very cold across the Uk and some other parts of Europe, parts of N America and some other places and very warm in others.

Global warming mean a rise in average global temperatures over time, as a trend. As such what's happening atm in some places is part of a point on such a trend.

Some big gaps in that chart Dev, must be where it's cooler than average, don't you think? By the way it's brass monkeys up here Dev!Didn't you warmists tell us not that long ago, that winters would be warmer and wetter! Just weather hey!! :o

Just a quickie, did anyone see that nice chap from the MetO being grilled on BBC News 24. He did appear to be very uncomfortable, when pressed about climate change and the MetO's winter forecast. Oh well you live by the sword, you die by the sword! All aboard the Titanic now!

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Been a while since I've replied, but thought I'd take a moment away from enjoying this recent wintriness to comment. Some people on here still seem to be confusing "weather" with "climate". I'll pick on Stewfox (nothing personal!) just because his is the most recent comment - regarding the exceptional cold events being recorded in a variety of population centres across the NH. This is "weather", and relates to the spatial distribution of the overall heat budget across the globe. "Climate" (in a global sense) is the overall pattern of change of the aggregated heat budget as it varies from year to year, and more importantly from decade to decade, still on the way up according to the relevant databases.

We have an unusual weather pattern this winter in which Arctic air is displaced from its usual haunts and is migrating to areas that don't normally see it. It is a hemispheric-wide phenomenon as you can't alter the pressure pattern fundamentally in one part of the NH (say, the North Atlantic) without altering it elsewhere (say, Asia, N America). Hence areas that are normally warmer, and in which a lot of people live record unusual weather, but this is not the whole story. You need to look at the corresponding areas that are warmer than average to get the full picture. What is clearly not newsworthy is that Arctic Canada is far warmer than it usually is, SE Europe/W Russia is similarly so, as is Alaska - see Dev's image above. These warmer places will go a long way towards balancing the hemispheric heat budget. So the cold is not necessarily that unusual, it's just in different places. It may lead to a slightly cooler NH temperature if larger proportions of land relative to sea are unusually cool, due to differential rates of land/sea heating/cooling, but we must not be IMBYs when thinking about climate.

But this is all just the vagiaries of weather. If you can sum the mean for the whole of the hemisphere or globe, and find that it is far above/below normal, then you can make a comment on how this relates to the overall climatic pattern. But you can't do this as an IMBY, and say silly things like "Britain's (or insert your favourite place) had a cold winter therefore AGW doesn't work"

AGW does not preclude cold winters in the UK. It makes them less likely to happen for a couple of reasons -

(1) warmer hemispheric temperatures and notably sea surface temperatures means that it may be harder for cold air to reach and get established over the UK. Not impossible though! It just takes a more 'perfect' winter setup to do this, like the one we have at present.

(2) There was a prediction of more sustained NAO positive regimes, thus limiting the UK's likelihood of cold weather (the "modern" winter). This winter, once again, demonstrates that the cold synoptics are still possible. Only well into the future will we be able to tell whether cold synoptics have become less frequent. It is interesting that there have been occurrences of cold synoptics for the UK in the last couple of winters - something not generally predicted in a warming world. However that does NOT mean that the world is cooling, just that the UK has had favourable synoptics for some reason. Once again "weather" not "climate".

OK, rant about "weather" and "climate" over. I for one am really enjoying the cold and the snow - was playing in over a foot of powder over Christmas and New Year in places like Aviemore and Assynt!

Happy New Year all :)

sss

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This business about global warming causing unusual patterns resulting in extreme cold -- at some point, this becomes transparently ridiculous. I think that point has already been passed.

I'm sure warmists would not appreciate it, were it possible for me to invent a "reason" why global cooling had brought on the 2003 heat wave. I could probably string together something like cold air coming out of some other part of the world forced the warm air up over Europe, and who knows, I might even get a few takers for it.

But at some point, we need to restore some common sense to the argument, and confront those who are advancing these entirely implausible arguments -- global warming means warming, and long, extensive, widespread cold regimes are not foreseen in that paradigm. These are desperate times for the warmists, hope they didn't all convert to solar!

Nice to see a level-headed contribution to the global-warming frenzy.

Just to confirm, as RJS opines "I think that point has already been passed."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/6932602/Restaurants-and-takeaways-to-provide-health-warnings-on-menus.html

It's all our fault again, this time, for EATING THE WRONG FOOD. Included is a picture of Hilary Benn, just to make sure. That threat to "revolutionise farming" is one not to be taken lightly.

Just to recap.

Any weather event at all is caused by global-warming.

Anything that we do that gives us the slightest enjoyment causes global-warming.

That's right isn't it?

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Just thinking it's amazing how fast the quiet sun has made a differance. Anyone remember Ken Ring saying this winter would be cold????

Of course one cold winter doesn't prove anythign and neither does a series of warm years. As the leaked email said basically said. Todays climate is within natural historic boundaries.

Now if we get a series of cold winters and soggy summers the warmist will flip and predict the next ice age due to climate change.

I tend to think that peeps who repeatedly make 'All Praise to the Great One!' comments regarding Joe B's first (and only, as far as I can recall?) success, as if it somehow disproves AGW theory, are suffering from a trully monumental case of confirmation bias! :acute:

First time he's got it right that I can recall.

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Wasn't too long back that many on NW and in the AGW community were wailing that we'd never see snow again in the UK due to global warming. Now that we have (and how),some are linking it as a result of said warming,it's weather not climate,or it doesn't register in the 'trend' blah blah. It's getting to the point when I've all on to resist projectile vomiting when I hear these people..... Everything,but everything these days is a result of 'climate change' and we must act to stop it. Meanwhile,gotta walk 4 miles thru' a foot of snow to work whilst pondering what to plant in my Meditteranean Style back garden this year.

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Some big gaps in that chart Dev, must be where it's cooler than average, don't you think? By the way it's brass monkeys up here Dev!Didn't you warmists tell us not that long ago, that winters would be warmer and wetter! Just weather hey!! :)

Yes, it is just weather. You surely don't think a few weeks are climate?

Just a quickie, did anyone see that nice chap from the MetO being grilled on BBC News 24. He did appear to be very uncomfortable, when pressed about climate change and the MetO's winter forecast. Oh well you live by the sword, you die by the sword! All aboard the Titanic now!

See you in a decade.

Wasn't too long back that many on NW and in the AGW community were wailing that we'd never see snow again in the UK due to global warming.

No, just less likely. You know the difference.

Now that we have (and how),some are linking it as a result of said warming,it's weather not climate,or it doesn't register in the 'trend' blah blah. It's getting to the point when I've all on to resist projectile vomiting when I hear these people.....

Charming.

Everything,but everything these days is a result of 'climate change' and we must act to stop it. Meanwhile,gotta walk 4 miles thru' a foot of snow to work whilst pondering what to plant in my Meditteranean Style back garden this year.

It's weather. If it carries on for decades it will be a change in the climate - the prevailing weather. It's a bit like living in west Cornwall, having a east wind for a week or two and then saying the prevailing wind has changed - on no it hasn't.

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Doesn't matter how it's happening but if we continue on then we pop out of our stable climate system (in which humanity flourished) into uncharted territoriessmile.gif

If we 'continue on' what?

The AGW brethren are doing a sterling job of convincing only themselves.

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Good morning, peeps...I think I'll create a new thread for y'all to misbehave in??? This one has gotten rather long! :unsure:

New thread here:

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