Model Output Discussion

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Another reload of the current pattern to come this week with the trough from Scandinavia to just west of the UK persisting along with the southerly tracking jet stream.

No real sign beyond this reload of any settled spell. It is looking increasingly probable that this isn't going to happen anytime before the change of the month.

[Solar Cycles]

yep yep yep bbq what?

all i can say is they need to scrap the seasonal outlook its been wrong wrong wrong yes i have a stutter lol.

but i will say most other weather sites have been more accurate.

but overall i agree its looking a little gloomy for awhile but its not uncommon for models to throw a wobbley whilst they get some firmer data,

so changing model outputs are very common.

and i think gp has a different idear from what some feel will happen.

even if from the end of july to september was warm and sunny,

then i still would not shout well done to the met o bbq summer,

its been like a stalemate just goes to show how unpredictable.

still pressure will build but i wonder when and will it stay for awhile?

Another busted MetO seasonal forecast, having said that it's still been far better than the previous two! This coming week is looking dire, as is next weekend!

[Nick L]

As much as I despise summer and summery weather, I think it is far too early to write it off. This is the equivalent of writing winter off half way through January (as many normally do, only to end up with egg on their faces).

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Summer isn't 'written off' but it is realistic now to suggest that the rest of this month is unlikely to produce any settled summer weather. There are going to be a lot of petulant and bored school children on holiday with this weather I think!

The Met Office can still claim that the summer is technically above average (at this time) but it certainly is not living up to the billing it was given at the start of the season. In that sense it is certainly heading towards being 'bust' unless there is a dramatic turnaround in the pattern during August and the jet stream moves to the traditional summer path towards Iceland.

Edited July 19, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Solar Cycles]

Summer isn't 'written off' but it is realistic now to suggest that the rest of this month is unlikely to produce any settled summer weather. There are going to be a lot of petulant and bored school children on holiday with this weather I think!

The Met Office can still claim that the summer is technically above average (at this time) but it certainly is not living up to the billing it was given at the start of the season. In that sense it is certainly heading towards being 'bust' unless there is a dramatic turnaround in the pattern during August and the jet stream moves to the traditional summer path towards Iceland.

The chances of the jet stream moving north, seem pretty remote at this moment in time. Northern blocking due to low solar minima, isn't going any where fast. Off course you can't write off a settled spell come August, but for those looking for heat, are going to be disappointed I'm afraid.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I definately think Scandi and perhaps by September, even Iceland blocking will be the driver over the next two or three months. The problem though, is that I don't think the southerly tracking jet is ever really going to go away. So what would normally be a pretty decent (and fairly typical for a developing El Nino) late summer/early autumn pattern with warm, dry east or south-easterly winds, may actually be a very wet pattern for England and Wales. I've got a suspicion we could have a September the like of which we've not seen since perhaps 1994? However, I do agree we should hopefully get at least a week or so of dry and warm conditions early August....

Hi Gav

I agree with the above as an overview but I have a suspicion that the jet's track will be further south and we may end up pretty ok. I am off to Majorca on 26th August and I am a bit jittery as i think it may not be as good weather as normal down there. Fortunately a long way off in weather terms.

It has been interesting this summer and indeed carrying on from winter on how far south the jet has remained. I mentioned it many times that it is IMO something we will have to start getting used to as the shift is on due to external forcing.

BFTP

[J10]

A new thread has been opened for your enjoyment.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=56035