Met Office Winter Forecast

[shuggee]

ok its a case of wait and see and its most likely it wont be way below average but average is still likely with maybe a slightly below possible.

I'd say a 1 in 7 chance badboy

[masheeuk]

i'm not saying that the spurious 1 in 7 chance of a cold winter isnt acceptable, but for the benefit of us mere mortals, wouldn't it be be better if the met office backed up this forecast with some reasoning. ok, its clearly based on an average from past years, and therefore, lets face it, it's mostly a guess. i do wonder if these lrf's are purely to grab headlines, and frankly, recently, they're grabbing all the wrong ones

I agree totally for them to put the reasoning there and say this is what we think the models are showing us would be great. We all know there will be mistakes everybody makes them. I just feel this one is a result of somebody failing to deliver.

[MR EXTREMES]

yeah experimental forecast thats been draging on for years,

maybe a bit more detail or maybe just give up the lrf.

as you said john :

Anyone pretending to be able to give a forecast week by week some 2 months before the start of winter is frankly a nut.

:yahoo:

and truely i feel the net weather lrf is much more intresting and educational even if sometimes it maybe wrong atleast it shows hart.

Edited September 29, 2009 by badboy657

[chionomaniac]

I agree with both TM and John.

However for the more technically minded, I would like to see some reasoning as to why the MO think we will be wetter and warmer than average. Something along the lines of encorporating El Nino, Atlantic SSTs, QBO/ strat input, previous analogues such as comparing -NAOs during the summer. For some one like myself the reasoning behind the forecast is just as important as the forecast itself.

c

[PB22]

Some people really need to have a long hard think with regard to what long range forecasting is all about.

The Met' Office admit that these forecasts are experimental and with two months to go before the meteorological winter even begins it's hardly likely that any forecaster or forecasting agency is going to pin down region by region detail as the winter progresses, even if the computing power was 10 times the current value.

Any long range forecast is going to paint with a very broad brush and it seems the expectation of some, of the Met' Office forecast, is based more on some of the long range forecasts issued on here for fun ( and nothing at all wrong with that )which go into great detail about what is likely to happen in any given week but which are, in any event, little better than guesswork or desperate hope.

Lastly, stating that there is a 1 in 7 chance of a colder than average winter is not covering all bases it's merely a statement of probability. It is no more invalid than stating there is an 86% chance of a milder than average winter and a 14% chance of one that is colder than average. It would be a very brave ( or very foolish ) forecaster who stated a 100% chance of something occurring at that range when even severe weather warnings for 24 hours ahead rarely include a greater than 80% chance of the event occurring.

A superb post, and nail well and truly hit on the head.

Anyone expecting more than what the Met Office have issued today at this stage of procedings really need to take a step back and get a bit of reality into their lives.

I would also advise people to read the paragraph at the bottom of the page:

Future updates

The main forecast for Winter 2009/10 will be issued in November

So basically this is just a precursor to the main forecast, and I suspect reasoning, etc. may well be included in the main forecast. But for now, they explain in this link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/monthsahead/seasonal/2009/winter_background.html

Edited September 29, 2009 by Paul B

[johnholmes]

I would agree with that ch and cannot understand why they do not do it.

[MR EXTREMES]

I agree totally for them to put the reasoning there and say this is what we think the models are showing us would be great. We all know there will be mistakes everybody makes them. I just feel this one is a result of somebody failing to deliver.

i get the feeling the met o are looking for some attention lol.

be intrested to see there last 3 early winter lrf,s.

[MAF]

yes, agreed, lrf's are very difficult calls. some might say they are fairly pointless. however, to come up with the 1 in 7 chance of a cold winter line needs an explanation of some sort in the copy. the bbq summer was a mistake, and this line is albeit a lesser mistake, but a mistake never the less

but the thing is, is that the summer here (SE England) was by no means bad.

i usually judge things in the summer by the amount of time i see the children. and there were not many days they were indoors because of the weather.

i do agree that they need to quantify the 1/7 chance prediction.

but i would not say it is a mistake. more, a too ambiguous statement.

I really don't think that is defendable. That is more or less admitting they don't know. It is such a good job they have had all those millions spent on super computers.

but they probably are trying to deliver an early indication as to how they think the season will run out. (ok, they could give more explanations to the result they have come to).

super computers are only as good as the programming and data input. but one thing they cannot cope with is the unpredictability of the weather. be it local or global.

i really dont think they deserve a bad review for, at least, trying to give an LRF

[johnholmes]

picking up on the post from Paul B

this is their (Met O) comment on how and what factors are used to arrive at seasonal forecasts; quoted in full

How are seasonal forecasts possible?

Slowly varying aspects of the Earth's climate, in particular fluctuations in the surface temperature of the global oceans, can influence patterns in the weather. These influences are not easily noticed in day-to-day weather events but become evident in long-term weather averages.

The slow fluctuations of sea-surface temperature (SST) can be predicted, to some extent, at least up to six months ahead. The links between SST and weather can be represented in computer models of the atmosphere and ocean. Computer models developed at the Met Office, like those used in making both daily forecasts and long-term climate change predictions, form the basis of our seasonal prediction systems.

The strongest links between SST patterns and seasonal weather conditions are found in tropical regions, and it is here that seasonal forecasting is most successful. The best known links are those associated with sustained large-scale warming (or cooling) of SST in the tropical Pacific known as El Niño (or La Niña) events. These events can disrupt the normal pattern of weather around the globe, bringing, for example, large changes in seasonal rainfall that lead to droughts in some regions and floods in others.

Although the strongest links between SST and seasonal weather are found in the tropics, there is good evidence that similar, if weaker, links are present in other parts of the globe. The computer model forecasts can thus provide the best available guidance on likely seasonal conditions in many parts of the world, including Europe.

Because the link between weather and SST is best detected in long-term weather averages, and because the uncertainty in forecasts generally rises as the forecast range increases, seasonal forecasts look rather different in format compared to the familiar daily forecasts. The two key differences are:

• forecasts are for conditions averaged over three-month periods
• forecasts are stated in terms of probability

How are the forecasts produced?
The same computer models of the atmosphere that are used to make the daily weather forecasts are used, with some differences:

• they are run forward in time up to many months ahead, rather than just for a few days
• active oceanic, as well as atmospheric, components are included
• they are run many times, with slight variations to represent uncertainties in the forecast process

We occasionally use statistical forecasting methods on the seasonal timescale in winter and summer for UK and Europe. This is done where physical relationships between weather and the state of the oceans have been found, but where models do not yet show sufficient skill to pick up these particular relationships. This gives rise to a mixed statistical and physical model forecast process.

We also use this mixture of methods for forecasting the mean global mean surface temperature for a year ahead. However, on even longer time scales, such as a century ahead, only physical models are used, as no more skilful statistical approach has been found.

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Edited September 29, 2009 by johnholmes

[Nick L]

I think this is more of a winter signal update than a proper forecast. They will probably put the meat on this skeleton in November. They have probably already released a full forecast for businesses.

I don't really care anyway. What happens happens.

[The watcher]

thank heavens for someone like TM with a reasoned and sensible response.

I really do think I should throw in the towel with some of you and the comments you make about something which you have very little knowledge about.

Yes, it might have been a reasonable idea to have explained why they suggest there is a 1 in 7 chance of a cold winter.

However, the other side of that is, and no one seems to make comment on it, that is there is a 6 in 7 chance of it NOT being cold. This seems to fit with their press release to me.

So what do you want them to say or rather what should they have said?

I do not shirk from being critical of them when it seems necessary. I was one of the first to suggest that a Power point slide with B-B-Q summer? was asking for trouble.

But in this first indication of what the overall winter temperature may be along with the precip forecast I see nothing to complain about.

Anyone pretending to be able to give a forecast week by week some 2 months before the start of winter is frankly a nut.

Well true, the indications for temperature and rainfall are fine, they are reasonable. Whats getting me is that anyone with half a sense could say the same thing and be classed as a professional forecaster. Though I do suppose it is a little too far out to be more precise. I remember last November they released the more detailed forecast, saying that temps overall would be slightly above/ average for the winter period, which is alot easier to picture and not as broad a spectrum.

[MAF]

thanks John, i was thinking of posting the method myself (saved me the trouble )

i think that too many people have a downer on the Met O. but at the end of the day they are trying to produce information with the experience and means they have. and i for one respect their attempts

[MR EXTREMES]

cheers john thats it then winters over by the looks of it anyway still got a 1in7 chance of a cold winter crap odds they are lol.

na maybe there be right last winter was to good to be true oh well looks like im gonna change sides again back to warming camp i go

[The watcher]

thanks John, i was thinking of posting the method myself (saved me the trouble )

i think that too many people have a downer on the Met O. but at the end of the day they are trying to produce information with the experience and means they have. and i for one respect their attempts

I do not have a downer on the MetO, I too wished for reasoning behind the forecast..when I see a LRF on here or some discussions in the Model Output thread, we get exceptional and well balanced forecasts and reasons (from GP, BFTP, John, etc)....so when I come to read the MetO forecast I'm much expectant of the same thing...

cheers john thats it then winters over by the looks of it anyway still got a 1in7 chance of a cold winter crap odds they are lol.

na maybe there be right last winter was to good to be true oh well looks like im gonna change sides again back to warming camp i go

The first "Winters over" post.

[MAF]

I do not have a downer on the MetO, I too wished for reasoning behind the forecast..when I see a LRF on here or some discussions in the Model Output thread, we get exceptional and well balanced forecasts and reasons (from GP, BFTP, John, etc)....so when I come to read the MetO forecast I'm much expectant of the same thing...

...

yes, i agree. a brief descriptive release of that LRF was perhaps not thought out so well. lets hope the next update give a better prognosis

[MR EXTREMES]

http://geographyinthenews.org/interviews/article/default.aspx?current=true

[toggerob]

As I always say, Winter will do what it wants regardless of what some MetO "thoughts" are for the next few months based on current trends and a Computer so unreliable that they might aswell take weather forecasts from the Lunar cycle. The Forecast isnt even due out until November, what a joke the MetO have become, they might have well just released it in December instead to save the rush-job. I believe this winter will be below average temps with severe cold spells that will cause disruption across the country like last year, Combined with Stratospheric Warming Events it'll be a reminder of just how far North in terms of Latitude we really are.

[MR EXTREMES]

http://wattsupwithth...inter-forecast/

http://www.metoffice...pr20070927.html

http://www.metoffice...pr20080925.html

http://www.metoffice...pr20060921.html

oh and this is dangerous to try to predict so far ahead.

when your protecting older people.

Dr. James Goodwin, Head of Research at Help the Aged, said: "The onset of winter causes significant anxiety among many older people. This forecast will assist policy makers to adapt their strategies to ensure that the negative effects of winter weather are reduced as far as possible."

this is from the 2008 winter lrf naughty.

Edited September 29, 2009 by shuggee

[PB22]

It seems people only criticise the Met Office for their seasonal forecasts when it's not what they were hoping for If it had read '..temperatures are likely to be near or below average' and '..winter 09/10 is likely to be as cold as winter 08/09' I don't think many people would be criticising them.

Note: Met Office seasonal forecasts are 'Experimental' and this is not their official Winter forecast. It is only a brief early indication of what Winter 09/10 may be like.

Absolutely, I have no doubt whatsoever that opinions would be very different if the Met Office were suggesting a cold winter! Although, having said that, it would probably lead to even more calls for the reasoning!

[MR EXTREMES]

It seems people only criticise the Met Office for their seasonal forecasts when it's not what they were hoping for If it had read '..temperatures are likely to be near or below average' and '..winter 09/10 is likely to be as cold as winter 08/09' I don't think many people would be criticising them.

Note: Met Office seasonal forecasts are 'Experimental' and this is not their official Winter forecast. It is only a brief early indication of what Winter 09/10 may be like.

we will see if there right this time maybe they will be but if there not then i fear the anti met office seige will continue and i for one do respect there forecast short to medium term.

but longterm no way to much bias towards warming day in day out and this is what makes me mad.

theres to much involved within climate and the press has saturated real facts helped by the met office and many many others.

awww poor met office with all there billions and there lame excuse for a lrf.

Edited September 29, 2009 by badboy657

[karyo]

This winter forecast reminds me the winter forecast the Met Office did in September 2006. They said at the time that it was more likely for the winter 06/07 to be near or above average although there was a possibility for it to be below average. We also had an El Nino then!

I think the 1/7 chance of a cold winter comes from the fact that with El Nino there is increasing chance of cold spells in the latter part of the winter. Also, maybe their forecast is showing the uncertainty at present about whether the El Nino will pick up or pick soon and weaken before the main body of winter arrives.

Either way, I think we would have all appreciated some explanation about what factors influenced their forecast.

To be honest, I was not expecting them to mention the 1/7 chance of a cold winter, so this forecast sounds better than I expected!

Karyo

[reef]

Just a reminder that this thread is about the MetOffice forecast and not about AGW and climate change. Theres already been a couple of warnings and any further nonsense posts will be removed.

The 1 in 7 chance of a mild winter could be to do with the fact that in the last 22 years (since 1987) there have been 3 winters more than half a degree below average (1991, 1995, 2009). So when you look at it that way, there is actually a 1 in 7 chance. That isnt to say of course that we couldnt get another cold one this year but the Metoffice are obviously going on what their indicators say and what past years recently have done.

Also bear in mind that LRFs are still in their infancy. The Metoffice get a lot of flack when they get a forecast wrong but they generally do a good job and probably have a much better success rate than other LRFs. Still, we get this critisism every year when the forecast doesnt show what people want.

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

cheers john thats it then winters over by the looks of it anyway still got a 1in7 chance of a cold winter crap odds they are lol.

na maybe there be right last winter was to good to be true oh well looks like im gonna change sides again back to warming camp i go

yeh i also swayed towards the cooling camp for a short while... but atcually wtf dont base weather the globes cooling on 1 little-not- likely to be correct forecast for the UK.

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

still could be cold, for starters the weekly forecast shows ground frost even for this week- our first bit of cold weather, in an otherwise warm period.

overall 2009 is going more for record breaking warm rather than cold which some peeps were hoping 4.

My dad found last winter to be average but he was born in Febuary 1946, the 2nd coldest year of the century.

Edited September 29, 2009 by OldGreggsTundraBoy

[Paul]

The Netweather long range forecast has just been updated, looking ahead to the remainder of Autumn and into Winter (and we've had a much better record than the Meto this year don't forget )

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=