Met Office Winter Forecast

[Solar Cycles]

They are not the same thing. AGW is one aspect of climate change.

And can you please confirm exactly which year it was the IPGW was renamed the IPCC?

(sorry for taking the thread OT but this persistent lie perpetrated by the anti science mob really annoys me )

Oh yes we can be proud of all those hard working honest climate scientists, who never fudge data to suite their theory! And before you get on your high horse, two words for you. Mann, Hockey stick!! Now that's honest science for you!!

[jethro]

There's a dedicated thread over in the Climate area for discussing the METO and climate bias.

One questionable piece of work doesn't make the whole theory wrong now does it?

[londonsnow]

whatever the forecast, all i know is that the press office will not be making a gimmick out of their press release topline this time. the "bbq summer" was a very bad idea. the main issue i have with these lrf's is that they treat the uk as if it was a country like luxembourg ie a country 60 miles long. i think it's obvious that the uk is a bit bigger. this summer has shown there can be a massive north south or morelike nw/se divide. ok, i realise that lrf's are a bit of punt, but there should be a nod at recognising regionality. shetland may just have a different winter than jersey.

Edited September 25, 2009 by londonsnow

[MR EXTREMES]

i do agree with your post.

with any science theres always flaws even from the greatest.

what is clear,

is the majority support theres been warming in the past couple of decades.

it does seem skeptics have started picking up other trends and this is most likely from the flatlined temps since 1998 if this is correct which i think is true because science has said this.

but n the otherside its also saying sea temps are at there warmist and in 2007 arctic record melts so its all pretty messy.

but from my point of view theres been some changes in the last couple of years that have not gone to plan.

at first i was confident the met office will be wrong about there winter forecast but now i think they may go for average or slightly above.

but i hope there wrong lol,

but i dont think they will this time round partly because of the errors they have made in recent years.

they where not completely wrong about summer,

but there are a few little bits that wernt correct either id say 75% correct.

so average this winter which always brings some kind of colder i dont think it will be as cold as 08/09.

and yes ive changed my tune.:lol:

Edited September 25, 2009 by reef

[n1russ]

last year it came out on the 25th September 2008 so irt should be due any day!

fingers crossed!

[Solar Cycles]

There's a dedicated thread over in the Climate area for discussing the METO and climate bias.

One questionable piece of work doesn't make the whole theory wrong now does it?

No your quiet right Jethro it doesn't. I was annoyed at Essan's reply to Mondy's, by incurring all those who doubt AGW and it's effects are anti-science! Anyway it's off topic, so we will move on!

[Essan]

One questionable piece of work doesn't make the whole theory wrong now does it?

The theory is not at question. The issue is who's time machine they used to rename the IPGW ....... And have they also been using it to deliberately alter the weather in the future in order to make the MetO LRFs go awry ....... :lol:

[reef]

Ive removed quite a few off topic posts in here. Can we not let another thread become cluttered up with climate change discussion, theres an entire sub-section dedicated to that.

Thanks

[londonsnow]

i think the met office will be updating their winter forecast today

[Snow Queen one]

I saw on GMTV that the met office think this winter will be wetter and warmer than last winter. So if they are on form like the BBQ summer we should be in for loads of cold and snow lol

I hope last winter was not a blip in the run of mild winters but the beginning of a colder period.

[londonsnow]

so far in the southeast its been a bbq autumn!!

[snow raven]

And here it is:-

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/monthsahead/seasonal/2009/winter.html

[Anti-Mild]

And here it is:-

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/monthsahead/seasonal/2009/winter.html

Somewhat predictable (see my earlier post) although interesting that they insert a disclaimer about a 1 in 7 chance of a cold winter.

At the end of the day they have managed to issue a forecast that manages to say practically nothing.

[Solar Cycles]

Somewhat predictable (see my earlier post) although interesting that they insert a disclaimer about a 1 in 7 chance of a cold winter.

At the end of the day they have managed to issue a forecast that manages to say practically nothing.

Wow, well that's what you call value for money!

[londonsnow]

couldnt agree more. how do they arrive at the 1 in 7 chance of a cold winter thing. watch the press pick up on that. but essentially that forecast is a waste of space

[MAF]

And here it is:-

http://www.metoffice...009/winter.html

thanks SR. its a bit scant in detail, i reckon the november forecast will be a better presented one. i don't see any need to rubbish the Met O's LRF's. as i hardly see any other forecasters do any better, or worse. lets face it. LRF's are notoriously difficult to pin down and the degree of accuracy has to be a lot lower the further out it is.

[londonsnow]

thanks SR. its a bit scant in detail, i reckon the november forecast will be a better presented one. i don't see any need to rubbish the Met O's LRF's. as i hardly see any other forecasters do any better, or worse. lets face it. LRF's are notoriously difficult to pin down and the degree of accuracy has to be a lot lower the further out it is.

yes, agreed, lrf's are very difficult calls. some might say they are fairly pointless. however, to come up with the 1 in 7 chance of a cold winter line needs an explanation of some sort in the copy. the bbq summer was a mistake, and this line is albeit a lesser mistake, but a mistake never the less

[masheeuk]

thanks SR. its a bit scant in detail, i reckon the november forecast will be a better presented one. i don't see any need to rubbish the Met O's LRF's. as i hardly see any other forecasters do any better, or worse. lets face it. LRF's are notoriously difficult to pin down and the degree of accuracy has to be a lot lower the further out it is.

I really don't think that is defendable. That is more or less admitting they don't know. It is such a good job they have had all those millions spent on super computers.

[The watcher]

yes, agreed, lrf's are very difficult calls. some might say they are fairly pointless. however, to come up with the 1 in 7 chance of a cold winter line needs an explanation of some sort in the copy. the bbq summer was a mistake, and this line is albeit a lesser mistake, but a mistake never the less

They must have took my earlier post about going into more detail and using numbers to heart lol....although in the wrong way.

That is an utterly ridiculous forecast, it is not even a forecast because it really covers all sides of the coin.

Every winter they use the same gesture, "near to or above average"....why? Because "near to" can mean below or above the average by upto 1c, and then above average covers them should a super mild winter breakout. Not only that, but this time they have even added a risk of a cold winter, when is a winter not cold?...1 in 7 chance....so they have covered 4 areas now, cold, near average (above or below), and above average.

I've got 3 words for Meto

"Take a chance"

[Terminal Moraine]

Some people really need to have a long hard think with regard to what long range forecasting is all about.

The Met' Office admit that these forecasts are experimental and with two months to go before the meteorological winter even begins it's hardly likely that any forecaster or forecasting agency is going to pin down region by region detail as the winter progresses, even if the computing power was 10 times the current value.

Any long range forecast is going to paint with a very broad brush and it seems the expectation of some, of the Met' Office forecast, is based more on some of the long range forecasts issued on here for fun ( and nothing at all wrong with that )which go into great detail about what is likely to happen in any given week but which are, in any event, little better than guesswork or desperate hope.

Lastly, stating that there is a 1 in 7 chance of a colder than average winter is not covering all bases it's merely a statement of probability. It is no more invalid than stating there is an 86% chance of a milder than average winter and a 14% chance of one that is colder than average. It would be a very brave ( or very foolish ) forecaster who stated a 100% chance of something occurring at that range when even severe weather warnings for 24 hours ahead rarely include a greater than 80% chance of the event occurring.

[masheeuk]

Some people really need to have a long hard think with regard to what long range forecasting is all about.

The Met' Office admit that these forecasts are experimental and with two months to go before the meteorological winter even begins it's hardly likely that any forecaster or forecasting agency is going to pin down region by region detail as the winter progresses, even if the computing power was 10 times the current value.

This isn't a forcast this is just the last few years averaged out. It is like they have realised they promised something and hadn't done it so they threw something together to get people off their backs.

[londonsnow]

i'm not saying that the spurious 1 in 7 chance of a cold winter isnt acceptable, but for the benefit of us mere mortals, wouldn't it be be better if the met office backed up this forecast with some reasoning. ok, its clearly based on an average from past years, and therefore, lets face it, it's mostly a guess. i do wonder if these lrf's are purely to grab headlines, and frankly, recently, they're grabbing all the wrong ones

[The watcher]

Some people really need to have a long hard think with regard to what long range forecasting is all about.

The Met' Office admit that these forecasts are experimental and with two months to go before the meteorological winter even begins it's hardly likely that any forecaster or forecasting agency is going to pin down region by region detail as the winter progresses, even if the computing power was 10 times the current value.

Any long range forecast is going to paint with a very broad brush and it seems the expectation of some, of the Met' Office forecast, is based more on some of the long range forecasts issued on here for fun ( and nothing at all wrong with that )which go into great detail about what is likely to happen in any given week but which are, in any event, little better than guesswork or desperate hope.

Lastly, stating that there is a 1 in 7 chance of a colder than average winter is not covering all bases it's merely a statement of probability. It is no more invalid than stating there is an 86% chance of a milder than average winter and a 14% chance of one that is colder than average. It would be a very brave ( or very foolish ) forecaster who stated a 100% chance of something occurring at that range when even severe weather warnings for 24 hours ahead rarely include a greater than 80% chance of the event occurring.

If the forecasts are experimental then why do they not actually TRY and make a more greater risk forecast, because in the end of the day, experiments go wrong, at least they'd have an excuse.

I'm not dissing the Met'O, they are good.....sometimes. But to me a forecast IS ALWAYS a punt no matter how far out it is, so why can't they just put a little more effort into creating a lrf?

[johnholmes]

thank heavens for someone like TM with a reasoned and sensible response.

I really do think I should throw in the towel with some of you and the comments you make about something which you have very little knowledge about.

Yes, it might have been a reasonable idea to have explained why they suggest there is a 1 in 7 chance of a cold winter.

However, the other side of that is, and no one seems to make comment on it, that is there is a 6 in 7 chance of it NOT being cold. This seems to fit with their press release to me.

So what do you want them to say or rather what should they have said?

I do not shirk from being critical of them when it seems necessary. I was one of the first to suggest that a Power point slide with B-B-Q summer? was asking for trouble.

But in this first indication of what the overall winter temperature may be along with the precip forecast I see nothing to complain about.

Anyone pretending to be able to give a forecast week by week some 2 months before the start of winter is frankly a nut.

[MR EXTREMES]

I really don't think that is defendable. That is more or less admitting they don't know. It is such a good job they have had all those millions spent on super computers.

yeah which came out of our pockets along side there ability to drag in big organisations and watch them feel the effects of wrong long range forecast costing millions of pounds.

also add the hype of warming media stories then your talking big bucks for the goverment and the met office.

sorry i wont backdown about the met office there short to medium term forecasts are pretty good but just as good as many other weather forecasting company,s.

intresting to see alot of them dont agree with the met office lrf forecast.

ok its a case of wait and see and its most likely it wont be way below average but average is still likely with maybe a slightly below possible.