Met Office Winter Forecast

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

It will say the same as the preliminary forecast and predict another mild winter.

[Geordiesnow]

But what it is wrong with predicting a 'mild' winter though? Okay they got it slightly wrong last year(which is a blessing to say the least)but if all the signals that the met has points to a mild winter, then that what they will go for. They don't just say its going to be a mild winter just because that is the most likely to occur when in actual fact we all know its not as a mild/cold winter is as likely as each other.

Past winters imo mean nothing in terms of what the upcoming one will be as the weather is just not that predictable.

The Met Office has indeed in the past predicted a colder but drier winter in the past and i'm sure they got it right(i think) so they are not afraid to back a cold winter if the signals suggest a cold winter is likely. Anyways whatever the Met predicts is pretty irrelevant as we know from there infamous "BBQ summer" forecast and the fact mother nature will always have the final say.

[PB22]

But what it is wrong with predicting a 'mild' winter though? Okay they got it slightly wrong last year(which is a blessing to say the least)but if all the signals that the met has points to a mild winter, then that what they will go for. They don't just say its going to be a mild winter just because that is the most likely to occur when in actual fact we all know its not as a mild/cold winter is as likely as each other.

Past winters imo mean nothing in terms of what the upcoming one will be as the weather is just not that predictable.

The Met Office has indeed in the past predicted a colder but drier winter in the past and i'm sure they got it right(i think) so they are not afraid to back a cold winter if the signals suggest a cold winter is likely. Anyways whatever the Met predicts is pretty irrelevant as we know from there infamous "BBQ summer" forecast and the fact mother nature will always have the final say.

The voice of reason!

I think some people think the Met Office forecast mild just to spite them because they like cold, even though for the majority of people in the country, a mild winter would be most welcome!

[Snow Queen one]

In these times of recession then i agree a mild winter is to be welcomed by all. In the grand scheme of things even though the average temps may well be on the mild side we will still IMO have periods where we will see almost severe cold weather we always do.

I am looking forward to the frosts and the nip in the air if we could have clear skies and no cold rain i will be happy. And maybe throw some snow in too. There you go i have put my order in and i will keep my fingers crossed

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

The voice of reason!

I think some people think the Met Office forecast mild just to spite them because they like cold, even though for the majority of people in the country, a mild winter would be most welcome!

Not much voice of reason there though is there

A pretty silly post, of which I am not sure what the real intention was.

Of course they don't do it to 'spite' people They may harbour views in terms of climate change which overlaps too much into their seasonal forecasting (and yes I am not going to budge from this opinion, so tough if no-one likes it) but it is an absurd suggestion that they predict mild winters on some kind of personal vendetta level to be party poopers to people who like cold winters.

Next there will be the suggestion that they read net weather and go 'oh look, they are hoping for a cold winter lets spoil their fun and issue the seasonal forecast'.

I'm genuinely amused and chuckling at the absurdity of that.

.

Edited September 24, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[PB22]

Not much voice of reason there though is there

A pretty silly post, of which I am not sure what the real intention was.

Of course they don't do it to 'spite' people They may harbour views in terms of climate change which overlaps too much into their seasonal forecasting (and yes I am not going to budge from this opinion, so tough if no-one likes it) but it is an absurd suggestion that they predict mild winters on some kind of personal vendetta level to be party poopers to people who like cold winters.

Next there will be the suggestion that they read net weather and go 'oh look, they are hoping for a cold winter lets spoil their fun and issue the seasonal forecast'.

I'm genuinely amused and chuckling at the absurdity of that.

.

If you cared to read my original post properly, you would see that I am not saying that they predict mild winters because of a personal vendetta against those who like cold. I'd bet that some "coldies" (i.e. other people, not me) do think that though, certainly when you read some of the posts about Met Office forecasts.

Honestly, some people need to loosen up a bit, especially with the silly season on the horizon!

Edited September 24, 2009 by Paul B

[Methuselah]

My guess is, that they'll utilise the best information they have at their disposal and produce whatever forecast that information happens to indicate...No inbuilt AGW or anything-else untoward - just the latest data?

So (having read what you posted) I guess I agree with you, Paul B.

[Anti-Mild]

If I may I would like to hazard a guess at their updated forecast due to be released shortly:

Indications are that winter precipitation is likely to be near or above average over much of northern Europe. For the UK, Winter 2009/10 is likely to be wetter than last year.

Indications are that winter temperatures are likely to be above average over much of Europe including the UK. For the UK, Winter 2009/10 is likely to be milder than last year.

Not much change from their July forecast. I don't believe that the Met Office is in the business of backing down. Admittedly there are signals that back up this forecast, although there are also contradictory signals.

As has been suggested by others in other topics, I feel that the MetO factors AGW into their forecasts to a degree that effectively nullifies any chance at accuracy that a LRF might have - I cite their recent seasonal forecast track record which is no better than Piers Corbyn's.

[The PIT]

I'm trying to think what the press release will say. Now looking at Anti-Milds comments I'd go for the following.

Winter is going to be one for T Shirts and Brollies with the possibility of day time temps staying in the mid teens for many. So put away the sledge, snow shovel and de-icers.

Then the national media will say. Global warming leads to record breaking warm winter. Forget the snow shovels and buy the sunscreen instead. Met office forecast predict hottest winter ever.

On here after the above headline goes tits up we'll have the renewed argument about AGW being factored into the long range forecast or not.

Edited September 24, 2009 by The PIT

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think it will go 'wetter than average but above average temperatures. Don't worry about flooding because "at least it will be mild". '

BFTP

[reef]

As Paul B says, the MetOffice will produce a forecast based on what their indicators suggest, be it mild or cold. I remember in 2005/06 they correctly predicted a cool, dry winter and got it spot on. As well as the mild, wet one the year after in 2006/07.

In fact, considering we're talking LRFs here, the Metoffice are exceptionally good. Ive never understood in winter why people take it almost as a personal insult if a forecast dares to suggest mild. The MetOffice dont need to have a AGW agenda, as lets face it, during the last 20 years cold winters are as rare as hen's teeth. You only have to look at all the comments saying how good a forecast is if it predicts cold to realise how ridiculous it all looks.

[Essan]

Presumably the update will be run using GloSea4 (scheduled to replace GoSea3 in September) which is based on the improved HadGEM3 coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model and offers much better resolution. Which hopefully all means better detail and accuracy

Edit: According the MetO "All predictions from September 2009 onwards are from GloSea4; previous predictions are from an earlier (GloSea3) system."

Edited September 24, 2009 by Essan

[Mondy]

The MetOffice dont need to have a AGW agenda

http://www.metoffice.../climatechange/

Climate Change and Global Warming (AGW) are now the same thing. The alarmists soon realised Global Warming was flogging a dead donkey, so they renamed it Climate Change (which covers a whole host of issues).

Let's breakdown the link above:

We make substantial contributions to the Nobel Prize winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Said IPCC (AR4) which has been torn shreds and proves absolutely nothing. It's hypothesizes only.

We help inform government policy

By using the IPCC reports and a 30m quid super-computer.

And this just makes me sick: http://www.youtube.c...er/TheMetOffice#

Edited September 24, 2009 by Mondy

[Mondy]

Why was my post deleted with no explanation and by whom? I don't get it.

Edit: it's back - thank you. Pete, I assume ?

Edited September 24, 2009 by Mondy

[Methuselah]

Why was my post deleted with no explanation and by whom? I don't get it.

It wasn't!

[Nick L]

You're not going mad Mondy, it definitely disappeared, accidentally press the remove button Pete?

[Don]

I think their forecast will go like this "For the UK, temperatures are more likely to be near or above average and milder than 2008/09. Rainfall more likely to be near or above average and wetter than 2008/09". So basically backing their initial early thoughts back in July. Of course it will remain to be seen if this turns out to be correct, but over the years I've been following their Winter forecasts, they only got it wrong last year, and have been pretty close to the mark overall.

[shuggee]

As Fred said - I predict it will read:

"The indications are for a wetter than average winter across western Europe and the UK. Temperatures will be around average"

Yes - I'm thinking 'around average' (not above like usual, and not below). But it would be quite a revelation.

[The watcher]

I think their forecast will go like this "For the UK, temperatures are more likely to be near or above average and milder than 2008/09. Rainfall more likely to be near or above average and wetter than 2008/09". So basically backing their initial early thoughts back in July. Of course it will remain to be seen if this turns out to be correct, but over the years I've been following their Winter forecasts, they only got it wrong last year, and have been pretty close to the mark overall.

Its easy to get near the mark on any forecast within long range, especially using bland descriptions.

Their wording describes it all really, when they say near or above average, that covers being slightly below, average or anywhere above average really. It takes courage as a forecaster to give a more exact/precise phrase. Maybe use of numbers? Something like this would be better.

Current Model Indications for Winter Period Dec2009 - Feb2010

Latest model outputs are suggesting that this winter will see temperatures exceeding the average by between +0.1c and +0.5c therefore making for slightly above average Temperatures this Winter.

Long Range pressure models indicate that LP will be dominant throughout the Winter period and suggest that an excess of +10mm and +100mm above the average seems likely. Therefore rainfall looks to be above average throughout the winter period.

Being winter, cold spells are likely to occur, possibly less so than usual...but public are advised that cold spells can be sharp and potent and endanger lives, therefore we would inform you to keep up to date with any advisories issued by the Met Office during this winter period.

Many Thanks

????????????

P.S Meto, if you see this, you can hire me. Just send me a P.M.

I'm sure some of you can see my point....

By the way, that was not my winter forecast, I was just giving an idea of what I think it should go like.

[mcweather]

I think you have a point there Watcher. I think what a lot of people understand that the seasonal forecast has to be very broad brush in its approach but the Meto could help themselves a lot by giving more explanation as to how they arrived at their conclusions be they mild or cold or average.

[Don]

I don't think it would harm the Met Office to go into a bit more detail than they currently do. Perhaps they could go along the the same line as Netweather's seasonal forecasts, which give a good overview of how things currently look like panning out without going into too much detail to keep it realistic. Talking about Netweather's seasonal forecast, it's due to be updated this coming Monday.

Edited September 24, 2009 by Don

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Honestly, some people need to loosen up a bit, especially with the silly season on the horizon!

Yes - don't they!?

[Thundery wintry showers]

I am guessing that the Met Office will go for mild and wet, but with the chance of colder weather into February. I think that's the most likely scenario based on the current ENSO signal and the Met Office will be taking ENSO into account when making the forecast.

Re. points on the majority of the population, there is a difference between "mild" and "snow free". I think there's little doubt that the majority of the population would prefer a mild winter to a cold one, and would consider a winter like 1947 unwelcome, but on the other hand, I think the percentage of people who wouldn't be averse to the odd snowy incursion here and there is a lot higher than the media makes out- it may well be close to 50-50.

Despite the recession I would not want another 1988/89. No way!

[Essan]

Climate Change and Global Warming (AGW) are now the same thing. The alarmists soon realised Global Warming was flogging a dead donkey, so they renamed it Climate Change (which covers a whole host of issues).

They are not the same thing. AGW is one aspect of climate change.

And can you please confirm exactly which year it was the IPGW was renamed the IPCC?

(sorry for taking the thread OT but this persistent lie perpetrated by the anti science mob really annoys me :lol: )

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

They are not the same thing. AGW is one aspect of climate change.

Correct Essan.

...but back to the winter forecast.

It will certainly be interesting what they come up. Only another 5/6 days before the end of the month. Would suspect it might be a Monday update.