Met Office Winter Forecast

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think the MET should wait until September before releasing any outlook, they should be releasing an autumn outlook first not winter. They don't release a summer outlook in late January...

The SSTs in winter don't play a part in the NAO I believe but do in May/June. I agree with the above average precip, the jet will continue its southerly position. The El Nino could affect early winter temps with colder latter part BUT if El Nino declines through autumn then overall colder winter is on the cards. However, I am looking at the fact that cold winters have occurred in El Nino times and it could be due to larger cyclical facts like perturbation, PDO, AMO etc.

BFTP

[Don]

I'm also in agreement that if El Nino weakens during the Autumn we may have a good chance of seeing a Winter similar to 2008/09. However, although the Met Office forecast a milder than average Winter last year, their NAO forecast was for a weakly positive NAO and this year is for a strongly positive NAO. IMO their NAO forecasts have been pretty accurate in the time that I've been following their forecasts which makes me think that their early thoughts for Winter have a higher chance of being correct compared to last year.

[pyrotech]

The met winter forecast will be as accurate as the summer one they issued. NOT very accurate.

I have to agree that global temps have risen due to climate change, but the effects will be different throughout the globe.

Firstly having watched the North Atlantic Drift for years i have been saying that the small but signifigant changes within it will effect the jet stream and it has (or atleast something has).

We are also still in a Solar minimum, Almost all the experts thought we would be out of it by now, there has been a few false starts but currently no sun spots for 15 days. The signifigance is a slight but again signifigant decrease in radiated heat reaching Earth ( 0.2%). Also history shows that prolonged solar minimums cause deep cold air to extend through North West Europe.

Personnally i can see a winter similar to the previous with some disruption from Snow, Continuation of these factors could take us back to winters of the early Eighties. To be totally honest it is impossible to accurately predict the "weather" on the Sun and it is that which will matter most. A return to solar normality will have a huge effect, continuation of solar minimum for a few years more will give a very cold outlook.

If it continues as it is now then Snow is likely for many this winter in signifigant falls, Where, when, and how much disruption will depend on weather systems. It should be a very busy winter for the NETWEATHER forums.

I have gone into more detail about this effects in the climate change forum UK & WESTERN EUROPE if any one wants to read more.

I know there are sceptics about both the Atlantic conveyor and sunspot cycles effects on our weather, but i am happy to discuss difference constructively.

Edited July 26, 2009 by pyrotech

[The PIT]

Just read the summer forecast just to remind myself. Oops unless Auguest is very hot and dry it's gone the way of the mega pear.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

I think this winter will be somewhere between slightly below average to record-breaking above average.

Edited July 27, 2009 by RAIN RAIN RAIN

[shuggee]

A couple of my observations/question posers on Meto forecasts of this nature for the discussion:

1. The media office really ought to have known better than to have spun the forecasters' hard work into that dreadful phrase 'bbq summer' this year. It really could be egg on face time as it's such a difference to their normal conservative, carefully presented and reasoned analyses. The review of the forecast in the autumn may allow us an insight into the processes that produced this, and it will be interesting to see if they come out defending it. August permitting of course... However, if they do defend it (stay with me, there is a logic here through all the ifs and buts), would they be able to justify a headline for a winter forecast along the lines of 'big freeze' for two five day long outbreaks of substantially below average temperatures in Scotland? I add the geography in there as the most likely area to have hot weather is the southeast - and that's where the hottest 'bbq weather' has been - so conversely in winter it's Scotland that's more likely to experience said cold?

2. If last year's form is anything to go by - the monthly updates after October are the most interesting and appear much more accurate. It's obviously nearer the event, so it's a more robust forecast, but also the real flavour of weather gets described rather than a generic 'likely to be near or above average' measure which is all we will get until then.

The SSTs in winter don't play a part in the NAO I believe but do in May/June. I agree with the above average precip, the jet will continue its southerly position. The El Nino could affect early winter temps with colder latter part BUT if El Nino declines through autumn then overall colder winter is on the cards. However, I am looking at the fact that cold winters have occurred in El Nino times and it could be due to larger cyclical facts like perturbation, PDO, AMO etc.

BFTP

You don't subscribe to the high SSTs around SE Greenland aiding cyclogenisis Fred? Or are you looking at the bigger picture? I'm sure Ian Brown would disagree....

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

You don't subscribe to the high SSTs around SE Greenland aiding cyclogenisis Fred? Or are you looking at the bigger picture? I'm sure Ian Brown would disagree....

Hi Shugs

Ian Brown I think had a point...to a degree. The jet did migrate ever further north and we did get into a cyclo-rut but not driven by AGW or SSTs or irreversible as Ian postured. We have seen over the past 2 years the jet's southward migration and I think this is a longer term trend [but won't be exclusive. Last winter was a classic example of this....there really didn't appear any reason with the 'usual' teleconnections for the jet to stay south like it did. I believe that solar cycles and lunar forcings are playing the bigger role hence affecting PDO, ENSO etc

BFTP

[johnholmes]

A couple of my observations/question posers on Meto forecasts of this nature for the discussion:

1. The media office really ought to have known better than to have spun the forecasters' hard work into that dreadful phrase 'bbq summer' this year.

re that Shuggee

Its my understanding that there was a Power Point headline of that phrase-then a discussion followed based on the actual text which was nothing like that rather silly headline.

Once again I have to say the naivety of UK Met continues to amaze me. The tried and tested, rather staid approach, is much less likely to get such banner headlines.

But there we are, I fear they are on the same path as the media in general - dumbing down on almost everything.

[Essan]

re that Shuggee

Its my understanding that there was a Power Point headline of that phrase

Yes, I've seen it.

Given the actual forecast it was a daft thing to do. I do wonder if they were under government pressure to ramp up some 'good news'?

Edited July 27, 2009 by Essan

[The PIT]

I see the met office are being slaughtered in the media for the barbi forecast.

The guy doing the Breakfast forecast was denying they ever said that but he needs to read the met office web site.

From the met office website.

The coming summer is 'odds on for a barbecue summer', according to long-range forecasts. Summer temperatures across the UK are likely to be warmer than average and rainfall near or below average for the three months of summer.

Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office, Ewen McCallum, said: "After two disappointingly-wet summers, the signs are much more promising this year. We can expect times when temperatures will be above 30 °C, something we hardly saw at all last year."

Although the forecast is for a drier and warmer summer than average it does not rule out the chances of seeing some heavy downpours at times. However, a repeat of the wet summers of 2007 and 2008 is unlikely.

Government Services Director, Rob Varley, said: "Our long-range forecasts are proving useful to a range of people, such as emergency planners and the water industry, in order to help them plan ahead. They are not forecasts which can be used to plan a summer holiday or inform an outdoor event."

Met Office seasonal forecasts are just one part of the jigsaw in the range of forecasts provided, complementing our shorter-range forecasts and supporting our role, as the nation's official weather forecaster, to help everyone make the most of the weather.

The Met Office works with the Environment Agency, SEPA, the NHS and others across government to ensure that we are ready to meet the challenges that severe weather may present us at any time of the year.

So sorry you can't squirm out of that one. The actual forecast said

For the rest of summer, rainfall is likely to be near average over the UK. A repeat of the very wet summers of 2007 and 2008 remains unlikely.

Over other parts of western Europe rainfall is likely to be near average or above average, while below-average rainfall is favoured over much of eastern Europe.

What do we mean by average rainfall?

We base our average rainfall on measurements over the whole season for the years 19712000. The UK average for June to August is 227 mm.

For the UK and much of Europe temperatures for the rest of the summer are likely to be above average.

What do we mean by average temperature?

As you would expect, temperatures can vary quite widely over the summer. So we take an average for the whole season and measure against that. The UK average for June to August from 19712000 is 14.1 °C.

Well temperatures are slightly above normal so that bit is close enough. Rainfall forecast is pants frankly.

Looks like the left hand needs to know what the right hand is doing. Over all a very bad case of media handling. You reap what you sow.

Edited July 29, 2009 by The PIT

[Solar Cycles]

Well like I keep shouting from the roof tops, the MetO have issued another busted forecast. It's about time, they either put this baby to bed, or leave the AGW sensationalist headlines out off their forecast. I wonder when they will revise their winter forecast!

[Iceberg]

Wait a minute:

The BBQ comment was stupid I think ever admits that, probably some young idiots idea of jazzing up the forecast and generating a bit of publicity.

However the actual forecast is far from being wrong so far.

To date.

They forecast less than 227mm of rain from Jun-Aug for the UK an average for western Europe.

So far we are at 54mm for June with 116% Sunshine and 111mm for July so far with 93% sunshine.

This gives us 165mm, so with a drier August it's still all to play for, let not judge them yet.

Sunshine is slighly above average to this point in August and Temps are currently above average for this point in the summer.

So precdiction 1:

For the rest of summer, rainfall is likely to be near average over the UK. A repeat of the very wet summers of 2007 and 2008 remains unlikely.

So far not to bad, average is probably where its going to end up. Bar a very wet August.

Prediction 2:

For the UK and much of Europe temperatures for the rest of the summer are likely to be above average.

What do we mean by average temperature?

As you would expect, temperatures can vary quite widely over the summer. So we take an average for the whole season and measure against that. The UK average for June to August from 19712000 is 14.1 °C.

This is still looking odds on to be honest as well.

Prediction 3:

We can expect times when temperatures will be above 30 °C

Yes this has already happened.

In short they saif a better summer than recently, but on the whole very average.

Isn't this what we have so far !.

The forecast isn't perfect and was poorly presented, but to suggest that it's widely out or they got it totally wrong is barmy.

Edited July 29, 2009 by Iceberg

[cheeky_monkey]

.

Well like I keep shouting from the roof tops, the MetO have issued another busted forecast. It's about time, they either put this baby to bed, or leave the AGW sensationalist headlines out off their forecast. I wonder when they will revise their winter forecast!

where is your forecast then??..he who cast the first stone and all that!

Edited July 29, 2009 by cheeky_monkey

[Solar Cycles]

Wait a minute:

The BBQ comment was stupid I think ever admits that, probably some young idiots idea of jazzing up the forecast and generating a bit of publicity.

However the actual forecast is far from being wrong so far.

To date.

They forecast less than 227mm of rain from Jun-Aug for the UK an average for western Europe.

So far we are at 54mm for June with 116% Sunshine and 111mm for July so far with 93% sunshine.

This gives us 165mm, so with a drier August it's still all to play for, let not judge them yet.

Sunshine is slighly above average to this point in August and Temps are currently above average for this point in the summer.

So precdiction 1:

For the rest of summer, rainfall is likely to be near average over the UK. A repeat of the very wet summers of 2007 and 2008 remains unlikely.

So far not to bad, average is probably where its going to end up. Bar a very wet August.

Prediction 2:

For the UK and much of Europe temperatures for the rest of the summer are likely to be above average.

What do we mean by average temperature?

As you would expect, temperatures can vary quite widely over the summer. So we take an average for the whole season and measure against that. The UK average for June to August from 1971–2000 is 14.1 °C.

This is still looking odds on to be honest as well.

Prediction 3:

We can expect times when temperatures will be above 30 °C

Yes this has already happened.

In short they saif a better summer than recently, but on the whole very average.

Isn't this what we have so far !.

The forecast isn't perfect and was poorly presented, but to suggest that it's widely out or they got it totally wrong is barmy.

Iceberg, I believe there is a new post avaiable down at the MetO, and it's right up your street. SPIN DOCTOR!!

[johnholmes]

Wait a minute:

The forecast isn't perfect and was poorly presented, but to suggest that it's widely out or they got it totally wrong is barmy.

thanks for a very balanced view amongst even more hype than the Powerpoint slide (daft as it was and should never have been used) generated.

I repeat I despair of the Met O playing a straight bat and sticking to the forecast instead of dumbing down for the Mirror readers/watchers.

As Iceberg has said its not perfect but its not as wildly wrong as some on here and the media would have us believe.

We still have August-read my idea of a possible change occurring and why in my latest blog.

[Solar Cycles]

.

where is your forecast then??..he who cast the first stone and all that!

If you can be bothered to look through this thread, you may stumble upon it!

[johnholmes]

Iceberg, I believe there is a new post avaiable down at the MetO, and it's right up your street. SPIN DOCTOR!!

perhaps what you meant to say was quoter of what has happened

incidentally most of us over the past few days are way off topic

read the thread heading?

its about winter not summer but there we are

mods could easily delete most of the last page or two as irrelevant including mine and Shuggees' posts!

[Methuselah]

Aye, it's a shame that so many peeps seem so obsessed with cherry-picking all the negative components out of anything the MetO says or does. It seem like case of if you can't join them beat them, to me. Physics envy, perhaps?

Anyway, my main reason for chiming-in is that this summer has been nowhere near as bad as parts of media are claiming; it's exactly the same media-hype that led to all that 'bbq summer' malarkey in the first place?

Maybe, it's the media, more than anyone else, that should be whiping egg off their faces?

PS: I suspect that the winter forecast will get the same treatment!

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Thought I'd bump this as they are due to update with their first full winter forecast any time now (well they did say September!)

[Paul_1978]

Thought I'd bump this as they are due to update with their first full winter forecast any time now (well they did say September!)

I've been checking every day for 3 weeks too!

You know what they'll say, warmer, colder, wetter and drier than average - and we'll all be none the wiser!

Mind you last year's winter forecast went completely out of the window!

Edited September 23, 2009 by Paul_1978

[Nick L]

They will go for milder than average, easiest to back the most likely outcome!

[Mondy]

They'll go for anything they can easiest backtrack on.

Alternatively, they'll go for AGW induced synoptics seeing as how they.........

........sorry, won't go there.........

[Solar Cycles]

They'll go for anything they can easiest backtrack on.

Alternatively, they'll go for AGW induced synoptics seeing as how they.........

........sorry, won't go there.........

I know a person who will though!!!!

[Nights King]

They will go for milder than average, easiest to back the most likely outcome!

I think they will back the form horse also but not without a few get out clauses put in for good measure such as-

indications are that winter temperatures are likely to be near or slightly above average however this does not rule out the posibility of an occasional cold snap.

Rainfall amounts are likely to be close to or a little above the average (which id expect in a mild winter).

They anoy me with their forecasts, they always sit on the fence just in case they get it wrong so they can back track or say look we were only slightly out.

[londonsnow]

they wont go for a barbeque winter, that's for sure