Met Office Winter Forecast

[johnholmes]

I predict it will be way off the mark, as they consistently factor in AGW IMO!!

once again to repeat they do NOT

[Solar Cycles]

once again to repeat they do NOT

If my memory serves me right John, you stated you assumed they didn't.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

If my memory serves me right John, you stated you assumed they didn't.

You are correct imo- they do factor it in. To illustrate this they make the point in their winter forecasts about colder winters becoming less frequent as a result of climate change. Yes of course short term indicators like ENSO and SST's etc are used to compile the meat of the forecast, but they clearly add a 'climate induced tax percentage' as well in terms of temp expectations

[Thundery wintry showers]

They don't actually factor AGW into their predictions, but rather the fact that temperatures have risen across the globe relative to the 1971-2000 mean, and more so in some regions than others. The cause of the warming is irrelevant here, what matters is its existence.

It will be interesting to see if they factor the El Nino into their predictions. If so I would expect something along the lines of "mild or very mild during early to mid winter but cold spells late in the season".

The MetO have had mixed results with their seasonal forecasts, as per pretty much all forecasters really- they got 2008/09 wrong, but then again their forecast for 2005/06 was pretty good and 2006/07 and 2007/08 weren't bad either.

[Methuselah]

You are correct imo- they do factor it in. To illustrate this they make the point in their winter forecasts about colder winters becoming less frequent as a result of climate change. Yes of course short term indicators like ENSO and SST's etc are used to compile the meat of the forecast, but they clearly add a 'climate induced tax percentage' as well in terms of temp expectations

No, they don't factor it in. But the fact that cold winters have become rarer of late, is surely obvious to anyone? Even my goldfish-like attention span has made me aware of that fact. Why on earth would a forecast model for 2010 use summer 1962's input data??

The globe is warmer now because it is; and acknowledging the existence of 'climate change' has nothing to do with AGW. Unless of course, you deny the existence of 'natural cycles'!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

On the basis that the METO fully subscribe to AGW as the principle mechansim behind climate change then the point about less frequent cold winters which they make in their seasonal winter forecasts is surely made within that context.

Not sure what is wrong with saying that.

Edited July 21, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Methuselah]

On the basis that the METO fully subscribe to AGW as the principle mechansim behind climate change then the point about less frequent cold winters which they make in their seasonal winter forecasts is surely made within that context.

Not sure what is wrong with saying that.

Apart from the fact that it's entirely unsubstantiated - nothing, I guess.

[johnholmes]

It continues to amaze me that some will not accept that the Met O do NOT factor in GW/AGW at all-full stop.

They do use various factors, NAO, SST's etc but these are what the atmosphere is showing in 2009 NOT comparing it to decades ago. They do comment, as one would expect them to do, that the world climate is warming.

The two can be commented on without assuming or believing that the two are not used coincidentally, or am I expecting too much from some posters.

If you do not believe me, fair enough, e mail them and ask.

[Solar Cycles]

On the basis that the METO fully subscribe to AGW as the principle mechansim behind climate change then the point about less frequent cold winters which they make in their seasonal winter forecasts is surely made within that context.

Not sure what is wrong with saying that.

That was the point I was trying to raise Tamara. We have all seen their seasonal forecast, were they can't help but mention how colder winters are less frequent. Directly or indirectly, they still factor AGW into the forecasts. They are making forecast, based on factors which may or may not, have any influence on our climate, depending on your viewpoint. This IMO, is why they are doomed from the start!

[Thundery wintry showers]

No, as per John's suggestion they use the current climate baseline (including SSTs, ENSO, temperature profiles) as their guide, which in many cases is 0.5C or more above the 1971-2000 mean, and therefore they bear in mind that it is more likely to be above the 1971-2000 average simply because the current baseline is a little higher.

Their long-range forecasts have absolutely nothing to do with AGW.

Edited July 21, 2009 by Thundery wintry showers

[Methuselah]

It continues to amaze me that some will not accept that the Met O do NOT factor in GW/AGW at all-full stop.

They do use various factors, NAO, SST's etc but these are what the atmosphere is showing in 2009 NOT comparing it to decades ago. They do comment, as one would expect them to do, that the world climate is warming.

The two can be commented on without assuming or believing that the two are not used coincidentally, or am I expecting too much from some posters.

If you do not believe me, fair enough, e mail them and ask.

I'm surprised that your face hasn't turned blue yet, John.

I don't profess to be able to understand all the ins-and-outs of the MetO's modelling; but, I do understand that it's input must consist of current data only. Why some people persist with the (unsubstantiated) notion that AGW is built-in to the models is beyond me!

Unless, of course, they have an agenda?

That was the point I was trying to raise Tamara. We have all seen their seasonal forecast, were they can't help but mention how colder winters are less frequent. Directly or indirectly, they still factor AGW into the forecasts. They are making forecast, based on factors which may or may not, have any influence on our climate, depending on your viewpoint. This IMO, is why they are doomed from the start!

And, have cold winters become less frequent??

That's an historical fact, Solar. You cannot 'factor it in' to a model. Models don't work like that!

[MR EXTREMES]

I'm surprised that your face hasn't turned blue yet, John. :lol:

I don't profess to be able to understand all the ins-and-outs of the MetO's modelling; but, I do understand that it's input must consist of current data only. Why some people persist with the (unsubstantiated) notion that AGW is built-in to the models is beyond me!

Unless, of course, they have an agenda?

And, have cold winters become less frequent??

That's an historical fact, Solar. You cannot 'factor it in' to a model. Models don't work like that!

winters have become less cold apart from last winter,

but to be fair there seems to be alot going on in our climate over the last couple of years lots of pattern shifts so just maybe this is linked to solar activity or maybe not but i gonna go for a cold winter again.

cant wait to see the met o winter forecast on thursday,

but im gonna have a stab at there forecast of being above average and above average rainfall.

[Lincs Observation]

Evening all

i suspect that they will have to consider the worrying trend of the displaced jet patterns, if it was me i would defiantly start there. If i was to take a punt i would say slightly cooler than the long term average with a chance of a slight increase in percipitation. In a nut shell a colder winter than last winter.

this is based on my belief that with no long term warming due to 3 pretty poor summers and the fact the jet has been in effect a three year walkabout id say there is a 60% chance of a colder winter to come.

LO

[kold weather]

I suspect as TWS said they will likely go above average but mention that the early winter period will likely be milder with maybe a suggestion of a higher chance of colder spells in the 2nd half of winter.

[MR EXTREMES]

Evening all

i suspect that they will have to consider the worrying trend of the displaced jet patterns, if it was me i would defiantly start there. If i was to take a punt i would say slightly cooler than the long term average with a chance of a slight increase in percipitation. In a nut shell a colder winter than last winter.

this is based on my belief that with no long term warming due to 3 pretty poor summers and the fact the jet has been in effect a three year walkabout id say there is a 60% chance of a colder winter to come.

LO

i think your spot on:

the jet seems to have been a big cause in our poor or poorish run of summers and a chilly winter,

and this seems to have continued.

although it may be a theory it seems this started when solar went minimum,

but i would not like to say that is the top reason for jet going walkabouts.

it would seem this trend has carried on and perhapes like you said if this where to continue then another cold winter could be on the cards,

i mean snowfall in the alps in july cant be that common in the last 10years or so lol.

I suspect as TWS said they will likely go above average but mention that the early winter period will likely be milder with maybe a suggestion of a higher chance of colder spells in the 2nd half of winter.

indeed that could be the outcome lol.

but it could well be,

we may have a early start to winter again this year perhapes similar to last winter and even with el nino something is telling me things are very different over the last few years so cold or colder is very possible.

[noggin]

Nearly 10 o'clock....only an hour to go! I just checked the MetO site, but it ain't there yet.

[londonsnow]

Early indications are that winter temperatures are likely to be near or above average over much of Europe including the UK. For the UK, Winter 2009/10 is likely to be milder than last year.

there you go. fascinating stuff

[MR EXTREMES]

That was the point I was trying to raise Tamara. We have all seen their seasonal forecast, were they can't help but mention how colder winters are less frequent. Directly or indirectly, they still factor AGW into the forecasts. They are making forecast, based on factors which may or may not, have any influence on our climate, depending on your viewpoint. This IMO, is why they are doomed from the start!

i agree with 2 things and that the earth is warmed,

i also agree met o do factor gw all the time like weather online and bbc weather its always plastered in stories of gw.

but i expect its hard for them to work out whats going on,

although warming has been a fact,

perhapes looking at both sides might help with there forecast,

jet stream aswell is most likely the cause of them getting there forecast wrong but they need to look into why its decieded to catch them out perhapes this happens more in times of low solar activity,

but ofcoarse your never hear about it because more focus is being put on the warming trends of past decade perhapes this will change if we have a string of cold winters and poor summers,

there 2008/09 autum winter and spring forecast where wrong,

i wonder why they where wrong erm let me think perhapes some gw thrown in for good measure,

but this is not to say that mother nature will play ball.

because in my opion there is more to our weather climate than just STT,s NAO ECT so many other factors need to be taken into account which they most likely dont and its simply looking at one of our main source of our energy the sun and its effects on NAO.

and i just read it and its pointless even bothering because the fact is they dont know its to soon and there predictions sound like a broken record.

and yes it is only early indications even if it was full forecast i would not take no notice.

just thought john im not trying to pick a fight but inregards to solar cycles comment about gw being used in there forecast.

<h2 style="border: medium none ;" class="ghead470">Our methods</h2> This first assessment of prospects for Winter 2009/10 is based on statistical forecasting methods. These statistical predictions are based primarily on the influence of North Atlantic Ocean temperatures on European winter weather, and changing expectations for winter due to the warming climate. In September the forecast will be updated by including output from global numerical forecast models. Seasonal trends affect large geographic areas, so our forecast for the UK is in the context of Europe as a whole.

Edited July 23, 2009 by badboy657

[kippure]

Cant find it on the met office sitie, can someone provide a link

[londonsnow]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/monthsahead/seasonal/2009/winter.html

there you go.

by the by, is anyone else finding this forum much slower since the update?

[kippure]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/monthsahead/seasonal/2009/winter.html

there you go.

by the by, is anyone else finding this forum much slower since the update?

Cheers

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

PLEASE remember this is not a forecast by the METO, but an 'early indications' release.

BB - Perhaps have a look at John Holmes posts of late regarding your comment of GW/METO. JH is as much with the METO as anyone on this site, so I would suggest some open ears.

[PB22]

Can't really argue with the wet and mild suggestion from the Met Office at this stage. Of course, even the mildest winters can have a cold spell, so all is not lost for cold/snow lovers. El Nino I feel could play a big role this winter and I would certainly favour a milder and wetter outcome if I had to lay my cards on the table at this moment in time. However, there are many, many factors to consider and to try and fit in.

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Ok couple of things.

Firstly they are saying wetter, which IMO is good news. What they mean really is more precipitation, rather than wetter as such and of course this could well mean more snow, not just rain. Remember last winter was colder than it has been of late, but it was also mainly frosty rather than snowy, apart from a couple of notable spells.

"Near or above average" temps is what they nearly always call for this far out so I tend to take this with a large pinch of salt. First full forecast is in Sept so we can look forward to that.

[damianslaw]

I think the MET should wait until September before releasing any outlook, they should be releasing an autumn outlook first not winter. They don't release a summer outlook in late January...

I've lost all faith in there forecasts any way, recent forecasts have been very wide of the mark and this 'barbeque' summer forecast is fast going down the pan, with the warming trend you would certainly expect them to say warmer and wetter its what all the climate change people constantly bang on about..