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Arctic Ice 2009


J10

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I'm sorry you took that inference from my post: I thought the phrase "NOT deliberately cherry-picked" was sufficiently unambiguous.

The comment in my opinion was a deliberate attempt to undermine my figures, with an inference that they are inherently biased, whether by design or default, otherwise would you use such a comment?

I'm sorry you took that inference from my post: I thought the phrase "NOT deliberately cherry-picked" was sufficiently unambiguous.

The figures are supplied, at least on a monthly basis, and took me all of five minutes to find by following the links from the NSIDC front page.

I was aware of those figures, indeed we had this debate last year, but for me to do meaningful comparisons, daily figures are for more useful, and monthly ones do not enable me to do a running track of such figures. I have been producing figures like this for about a year, and if you trace similar threads back to before you were a member (?) you can easily find comments to this effect, it may only take five minutes.

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That is unfortunate, because it really obscures the wider picture. If anyone wants to claim there has been a recovery of Arctic ice towards the historical average, they need to know what that average is! Otherwise they're in the position of one who sees a redwood get cut down and gleefully cheers at the mushrooms growing on the stump. I intend no disrespect you personally in pointing this out, which is why I carefully said your graphs are not deliberately cherry-picked. However they do not tell anything like the full story, and it's important not to read any more into them than they will bear.

Everyone single average I quote is done via the IJIS figure using the full set of figures supplied, quite frankly my comments are crystal clear, and I never intend to make any other inference, which you are clearly misportraying. I would agree that 2003-2009 is an arbitrary range of figures, however so is 1979-2008, and both sets of figures, have relevance in terms of Arctic Ice figures, and both have limitations, in fact it could be argued that due to the fall off in recent years that this years comparison with recent figures is more relevant anyway.

Despite your comments you have NOT supplied daily NSIDC figures, which must be available somewhere, in order for them to produce averages they msut keep this data. I will continue to provide unbiased figures using the IJIS figures, if anyone is able to give daily NSIDC figures, I promise to provide daily updates using these figures.

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Posted
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
The comment in my opinion was a deliberate attempt to undermine my figures, with an inference that they are inherently biased, whether by design or default, otherwise would you use such a comment?

J1, like many people here of many different opinions I hugely appreciate the trouble you take in regularly giving us the figures. But I think you're being a little over-sensitive about Songster's comments, which I really don't think were meant to 'undermine' you or anything that you present.

All I read his comments as was a caveat to others that although the numbers are fascinating and of significance, since they necessarily only cover the last 7 years, reading them and drawing long term ice-health conclusions is perhaps unwise: they should be read in conjunction with the broader historical context. You do not make this mistake at all - as you say, you don't make any wider inferences, you just give us the facts - but some others unfortunately regularly do.

You are quite right in saying that the 1979-2000 range of years is also arbitrary, and there are considerable problems comparing it to/collating it with the recent IJIS range. But it does at least cover a longer period - in fact the longest fairly accurate one we have - and I agree with Songster that it should (at the very least) always be in the backs of our minds when we look at apparent improvements in the IJIS situation.

Ossie

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

I agree with all you say Ossie.

I think I've said this several times before that the IJIS figures are probably the best available particularly as they use the AMRSE data which will only go back to 2002 anyway. Jackone provides a very useful and unbias account of the figures.

I think the comment about the "no real picture yet" was based on the figures only and not on the state of the Arctic in general.

The figures always fluctuate between April and June and don't really give any real indications (except once the ice has melted at this time of the year it certainly won't reform until autumn).

The speeding up of the melting and slowing down relative to other recent years is interesting.

People are entitled to their views that everything is fine in the arctic, but equally GW's views also shouldn't be ridiculed.

Both myself and GW were posting on these threads in 2007 and 2008 and the overiding comments were that everything is good, the experts don't know what they are talking about etc etc and both of these years were terrible for ice extent and ice thickness (a slight improvement in 2008 admitted).

Yes TWS I noticed a couple of strong plumes on the Siberian side, they don't really make there way into the Arctic Ocean but will certainly start to effect things. Alaska has also been warm recently.

Modis still shows a very large amount of fragility to the ice, paricularly around the Alaskan side.

I disagree about the NW passage, it's possible that the deep NW passage doesn't open due to the flow of the ice, although I think it will, the NE passage will almost certainly open IMO.

I really don't see anything that points to anything but another very poor year for arctic ice, but would be happy for somebody to point something out.

Doctormog, Re me looking at the temps around the arctic ice edge, as much as I can find they were around average, some above, some below as expected.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Well, all we know is what we have in front of us. Its higher than other years but below others. It isn't the lowest or the highest and not by someway. I like the posting of the figures and seeing the current state and i think we should just stick with that and not individual 'wants'.

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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As said before I will continue, but I will also provide figures showing a comparative on the 1979-2009 figures.

The purpose of showing the figures in the figures is not to determine how the NSIDC figures compare to past ones but to see how the 2003-2009 average compare to 1978-2009 averages.

So in the case of June, the recent average is 0.57m below the long term average. so going by the previous update, a new version will read.

Recent ISIS have shown average drops of around 55,000sqkm per day. This has dropped the overall total below the average for the year for the first time in months, albeit only by around 10000sqkm, this is the 4th highest figures ( of 7), of interest we are now 75000 below 2008, and 95000 above 2007.

This infers a figures of around 580,000sqkm2 below the 1978-2009 mean.

However if anyone was able to obtain daily NSIDC figures for me, this would enable more accurate estimates to be made.

NSIDC_Figures.xls

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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen
Water is water and unless under immense pressure is only fluid above 0c (as I understand things). :yahoo:

I'm not how that addresses my original query. :yahoo:

Why do SST anomalies, be they warmer or colder than average in the Arctic region, always seem to suggest a negative picture in terms of ice melt (i.e. significant melting has happened hence the SSTs are colder than average or the sea's warmer in that region so the ice will melt more quickly as a result)?

As an aside, water can also be liquid at about -2 depending on the salinity/purity (but I guess then it's not pure water but then again neither is sea water).

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This is the latest set of figures on the Arctic Sea ice,

I have attached the first update for the Summer Season, there has been quite a change this week on the IJIS figures, with large rises and falls, averaging at a drop of around 55,000sqkm per day. This has dropped the overall total below the average for the year for the first time in months, albeit only by around 10000sqkm, this is the 4th highest figures ( of 7), of interest we are now 75000 below 2008, and 95000 above 2007.

Arctic_Ice_Summer_2009.xls

On the IJIS figures, there has been decent performance over the past week, with an average drop off of only 25,000 per day since the last update, (however this only covers 5 days). This is now around 95,000 above the 2003-2009 average (and by inference 475,000 below the 1978-2009 average).

On the IJIS figures we are the third highest of the series, below 2003 and 2004, but above all years since that, we are now around 150,000 above the figures in 2008, and 130,000 above the 2007 figures.

Arctic_Ice_Summer_2009.xls

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

With a large anticyclone setting up near the pole I think there could be some significant melting coming up- it's like what happened in Summer 2007.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
With a large anticyclone setting up near the pole I think there could be some significant melting coming up- it's like what happened in Summer 2007.

I've been watching that myself.The ice (in general) is in poorer shape than 07' so I'm concerned at an early melt spurt (once melted it only goes to add areas of dark water which will speed things up further) may well push us beyond the 07' min.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

We're missing the key ingredients from last season as well to keep the ice in decent shape until August.

My guess is that we will have the first arguments about arctic ice navigation in the 1900's by the 15th of July.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen
We're missing the key ingredients from last season as well to keep the ice in decent shape until August.

My guess is that we will have the first arguments about arctic ice navigation in the 1900's by the 15th of July.

Do you expect the NW Passage to be navigable this season?

For reference the North American Ice Service do not expect it to be. :)

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

well thats good news then.

i totally conceed to the fact our planet is over heating and clearly the arctic is melting and will be gone in a decade maybe sooner,

its ashame that anyone that could ever think the arctic could make a dramatic comeback is very much wrong,

unless of coarse a super volcanoe was to erupt or the sun loses even more energy.

what with a strengthening el nino conditions and conditions that suit melting in the arctic region then its game over.

but once again i must say there is nothing we can do to stop this and ive got to the stage where i dont care anymore im looking forward to either hot summers very mild winters,

or very mild and wet winters and wet summers either way it dont matter because theres nothing we can do about it,

so if anyone thinks that the arctic wont melt away they are wrong to late to worry about that now.

i sopose be nice to see open water around the arctic cycle perhapes it could be a holiday destination most likely will be to be honest.

anyway ive finished my rant i think this cold winter just past was just the effect of la nina id liked to of seen normality return to the northern hemosphere. :)

Edited by badboy657
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Posted
  • Location: North Bromsgrove 185m (moved 100m lower...)
  • Location: North Bromsgrove 185m (moved 100m lower...)

In 2007 by 14th June you could already get a visual sense of what the minimum ice extent was going to look like:

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsredat...0614-v5_nic.png

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsredat...0914-v5_nic.png

This year is not yet comparable in that sense, and so there is significantly less open water amongst the ice, on the Beaufort/Chukchi side of the pole, to begin absorbing the peak solar radiation - for now.

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsredat...0614-v5_nic.png

Higher Ground (a.k.a Chris on various climate blogs......)

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Do you expect the NW Passage to be navigable this season?

For reference the North American Ice Service do not expect it to be. :doh:

Yes I disagree with the ice service. The NW passage will be open this season, as will the NE passage IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
or very mild and wet winters and wet summers either way it dont matter because theres nothing we can do about it,

...

I have to take issue with that I'm afraid- there are things that can be done about it. Whether they will come about, or whether they will or won't cause more problems than they are solving, is of course a matter for debate elsewhere!

The problem with such defeatism is that it is self-fulfilling- we can't do anything unless we open minds to the possibility that we can- and it's also tied in with complacency and head-burying ("if it's a worry, accept that it can't be helped and then you don't have to worry about it any more" type thing).

As for the ice itself it is quite a concern as far as I can see. There is a real chance that we could end up with another 2007-esque melt as all the factors are falling into place for it.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
I have to take issue with that I'm afraid- there are things that can be done about it. Whether they will come about, or whether they will or won't cause more problems than they are solving, is of course a matter for debate elsewhere!

The problem with such defeatism is that it is self-fulfilling- we can't do anything unless we open minds to the possibility that we can- and it's also tied in with complacency and head-burying ("if it's a worry, accept that it can't be helped and then you don't have to worry about it any more" type thing).

As for the ice itself it is quite a concern as far as I can see. There is a real chance that we could end up with another 2007-esque melt as all the factors are falling into place for it.

im sorry wether it be natural or human cause,

there is nothing we can do its now out of our hands,

they say the main reason for overheating planet is because of co2 unless you have huge cargo carrers that could carry millions on tons of ice and put it back there then theres nothing that can be done.

and if it could be do you really think the super powers of this world would agree to put all that ice back when theres trillions of pounds worth of resources waiting to be robbed from our planet.

its now runaway global warming natural and man made by the looks of it,

and ive totally changed my opion on the global cooling theory it wont happen.

upwards seems to be the trend so therefore a decade and summer ice will be gone,

what will the impact be no one knows so it just a case of waiting until its gone.

took me a longtime to join the gw wagon but after 98% of net weather poster agree its only going to get hotter over time,

it would be silly to even consider global cooling unless la nina conditions happen but clearly el nino is increasing so record breaking ice melt maybe surpassing 2007 . :D:D:):)

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I'm of the understanding the the NW passage was carrying an abnormal load of perennial from the collapsed ice shelves/glacier calving and that it is this which may cause problems to navigation (again I think it was Mr Serreze from NSIDC who mooted this but it's duration was only for a couple of years as this ice melts out).

Once the last of the shelves have gone and the coastal perennial melts out then the NW passage will be ice free each summer (the nature of the channels means that the larger 'chunks' become 'trapped' until they melt out :( ).

Personally I can see the passage open by mid Aug and the perennial remnants melted out.

None of this is good news unless you want to send ships through or supply your oil/gas/coal operations in the high Arctic.

On this point I think it is no coincidence that Russia completed it's biggest Nuclear powered ice breaker a couple of years back......not for summer navigation but to keep a channel free through the single year ice over winter and allow year long operations in their fossil fuel harvesting operations.Not good.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Not wishing to appear a pedant but the Ellesmere shelfs/N.Greenland glaciers only broke free last year and the major sections of these collapses were caught up in the winter freeze up last year.

Seeing as those waters are only just freeing up I'd say this was 'new' information.

Exploitation of the Arctic is a certain a development as ice free late summer Arctic waters, a thing not possible in the recent past so ,to me, this too is 'new'.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Maybe something new to report here.

A pool of +15 850's is due to cross over the Husdon in the next 5 days. Temps upto 30C on the coastline.

I can't see the ice standing this kind of condition for very long.

Before anyone says anything, yes this happens every year, but this year maybe a week or two earlier and probably more abruptly.

post-6326-1245092630_thumb.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
im sorry wether it be natural or human cause,

there is nothing we can do its now out of our hands,

they say the main reason for overheating planet is because of co2 unless you have huge cargo carrers that could carry millions on tons of ice and put it back there then theres nothing that can be done.

...

We cannot do anything about what has gone before, but we can do a lot to address what is happening now. We can cut our emissions of fossil fuels by upwards of 90% in one stroke- the problem with that being that we'd plunge everyone into very primitive lifestyles in the process- hence the desire to manage a move towards cleaner energy sources. We can use geoengineering projects- though those are very risky as there could well be major side effects.

Head burying in the face of adversity takes two main forms, one being "said adversity is a myth so don't worry" and the other being "said adversity exists but it can't be helped so don't worry", spawning the conclusion "wait and see" in either case.

I do think this +15C 850hPa pool is a problem as well as that high pressure and the >20C 850hPa pool moving into northern Siberia. It isn't all doom and gloom yet- we could pick up colder low pressure circulation later in the summer as happened in August 2006- but it is not looking good at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Maybe something new to report here.

A pool of +15 850's is due to cross over the Husdon in the next 5 days. Temps upto 30C on the coastline.

I can't see the ice standing this kind of condition for very long.

Before anyone says anything, yes this happens every year, but this year maybe a week or two earlier and probably more abruptly.

And where is the evidence that it is early this year?

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Not really a rant it just had no evidence to support anything you said :rolleyes:

Now we may have the doom mungers predicting the weather up in the artic for the next 3/6 weeks

Ill wait and see what happens

i agree im going to stay of this subject and just watch what everyone else thinks.

being a coldie and covinced that global cooldown was apon us im dissapointed.

maybe it was more like what i wanted to happen,

and when lots of what i thought was good credible evidence on the cooling side dwindles away,

as heat once again returns my mind gets fried along with more and more stories of warming.

and when you see hear and read about the ice returning its rather exciting but then the bubble is burst i hope low solar activity has more effect on our planet than is thought.

anyway people i leave this forum in peace,

i feel way out of my depth but it will be intresting to see what happens time will tell. :D:D

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Posted
  • Location: North Bromsgrove 185m (moved 100m lower...)
  • Location: North Bromsgrove 185m (moved 100m lower...)

Here's a bit of "evidence" for you (not that I'm arguing any major "global cooling" is or has been underway - but of course there are more possibilities other than just that or "runaway warming"!)

May Arctic mean ice extent: highest since 2001

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/n_plot_hires.png

June Arctic mean ice extent so far: highest since 2004 [i checked this in Excel]

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Arctic temperatures: coldest since 2002 on both 18- and 24-month (prior) moving averages for both RSS and UAH ("NoPol") i.e. satellite-derived temperatures for 60-82.5N [also checked in Excel]

http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_time_series/

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/uahncdc.lt

Antarctic sea ice: at historically very high levels:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM....anom.south.jpg

Recent global temperatures: May 2009 was the 2nd coldest May since 1997 according to RSS (see link above, and coldest was May 2008); 4th coldest according to UAH.

Current global temperatures: trending below both a year ago and the 1979-1998 average as of 14th June

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/exe...h?amsutemps+002

[ Note the reminder here that Ch05 is the channel to look at for lower troposphere temperatures, and current year can only be compared to previous with reasonable accuracy: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/06/may-20...date-004-deg-c/ ]

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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen

The current evidence seems superfluous to the debate and generally ignored amongst claim and counter claim of doom or cool down. Both are simply opinion and rarely backed up by the data. A big case of agendas are us with only a few exceptions (Jackone is someone who immediately springs to mind with his excellent analyses, presented without spin)

Re. Hudson Bay, I'm not sure where the comments re. temperature of 30degC on Hudson Bay's coastline are coming from?

Here's a few Hudson Bay forecasts for the next few days (the 15degC t850s ion the chart on the previous page refer to Sunday - which is included in the following forecasts)

The following are most of the main habitations round Hudson Bay

Churchill - max of 11 (NW)

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/...2_metric_e.html

Moosonee (S)

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/...3_metric_e.html

Inujuak (NE)

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/...1_metric_e.html

Umiujak (NE)

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/...2_metric_e.html

Kuujjuarapik (E)

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/...5_metric_e.html

Then up to the north of Hudson:

Coral Harbor:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-9_metric_e.html

Arviat:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/...0_metric_e.html

Further north the likes of Cambridge Bay and other parts of the Canadian Arctic continue to be below average:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/...5_metric_e.html

Yes, there are hotspots, but there are also cold spots. Lets not present one without the other.

The fact of the matter is that things in terms of temperature are very "normal" perhaps even a little below in the far north of Canada. Whether that changes or has an impact on ice melt remains to be determined.

Hudson Bay might be warmer than average in coming days or even weeks but the last month has been significantly colder than average in parts of that region:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/global_mo.../tn71907_30.gif

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/global_mo.../tn71836_30.gif

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/global_mo.../tn71912_30.gif

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