Chase 2009 Day 30 Discussion

[MAF]

yep just had a read and saw that. so fingers crossed for an upgrade then

current discussion for day 1

as Paul says, 1500 - 2500 CAPE

FARTHER N AND W OVER OK INTO WRN TX...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE DRIER

THAN THAT OVER SRN/SERN TX...HOWEVER PRESENCE OF EML WILL CONTRIBUTE

TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500

J/KG. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG

STALLED...INITIAL FRONTAL SURGE WITH KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT

MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELL OR TRANSIENT SUPERCELL

STRUCTURES. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING

WITH ARRIVAL OF SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE. WHILE HAIL WILL BE THE

PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND

GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ORGANIZING COLD POOLS.

ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST

DUE TO POTENTIAL COMPLICATIONS WITH EARLY ARRIVAL OF MEXICAN SHORT

WAVE TROUGH AND IT/S RESULTANT IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. AN

UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED ONCE MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME

MORE CLEAR.

...IL/IND...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SURFACE REFLECTION OF REMNANT WARM CORE SYSTEM

IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY TODAY WHILE DEVELOPING NNEWD NEAR OR

JUST W OF THE MS RIVER. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE DEGREE OF

LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE THAT WILL OCCUR TO THIS DEEPENING WITH THE NAM

INDICATING THE STRONGEST SFC-850 MB WINDS. WHILE LAPSE RATES WILL

REMAIN WEAK...THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG AND S OF

ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST WEAK LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY

E OF SURFACE LOW TRACK. AS SUCH...SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME

LOW-LEVEL ROTATION IN ANY MORE INTENSE/SUSTAINED STORMS WITH THE

THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.

...FL...

A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J PER

KG/ COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF MIDLEVEL IMPULSE FROM THE GULF OF

MEXICO WILL FOSTER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DIURNAL STORMS FOCUSED

PRIMARILY ALONG THE ERN SEA BREEZE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN

RATHER WEAK...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL

PROMOTE A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AND PERHAPS

SOME HAIL.

Edited May 26, 2009 by MAF