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stormchaser1

Snow Watch: N&W Yorks, Northern & North East England

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It would be nice if that front on Tuesday with the warm-sector just brought no precipitation with it. Sadly; that wont be the case and sleet\rain is likely from Tuesday morning which could turn snow cover into slush quite readily. Very shortlived affair and not something I'm too excited about to be honest.

The only positives that encourages me about Monday's night event is that 1) the mild sector could be further SE than first predicted because the cold air is proven more stubborn and 2, we had upper air temps between -1 - -3 for the persistant snowfall on one December morning although that did turn to rain on the backward edge. However the winds are coming in from the North Sea when the PPN arrives so that could ruin things aswell.

I'm just going to make a guess here but i feel during Sunday we will have light snow showers with these becoming heavier as we head into the evening/overnight period, heavy snow showers continuing during Monday before dying away by Monday evening then we get a belt of persistant snow coming up from the South but this will turn to rain sometime during the night and then the small risk of the rain turning back to snow during Tuesday mid-morning as slightly colder uppers make there way from the South. We shall see.

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Yeti- I'm not sure I can afford Harrogate pint prices!! You're from there so presumably you're rich enough to get everyone's drinks in though right? Stelmer- that means I'll get the snow about 2 minutes before you! I'll let you know when it arrives lol...

In the meantime, whats the verdict on this annoying warm sector... please someone tell me its going to vanish or something equally implausible! Either way, I'm looking forward to at least 36 hours of lovely snow showers. On the video I posted before, all that snow fell from showers over just 6 or 7 hours so I'm looking forward to more more more this time!

BB

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I think it's looking quite positive for Monday evening at least for a time.

T850 temps are still around -6 or -7 when the ppn is arriving, and if the cold air is more stubborn than the GFS predicts there could well be a spell of snow for many of us.

post-3392-1233431086_thumb.pngpost-3392-1233431094_thumb.png

Here's my blog entry from a similar event last winter when there was quite a bit of snow in Stanley, with T850's higher than this time...

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?a...;showentry=3083

Looks like I could do better than most out of this if things become borderline. I would say anyone above 2-300m in the favoured areas has a good chance of 10cm+ :)

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Location...Harrogate. Yeti's buying the first round - :)

Whichever way you look at it, Leeds/Harrogate is marginal....unless you have elevation, and IMHO that's going to be the key to the next couple of days. Some cheers and some tears as showers edge over the Pennines. But I wish everyone the best of luck. I think that for anyone with any elevation at all, there'll be a few flakes, no matter how short a time they lie on the ground. Let the fun begin.....

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Just watched the Sky News Weather..... Quote 'A significant snow event....up to 2 inches of lying snow'. Thats pretty insignificant don't you think? Or on the other hand if you look back at the last 5 years, I suppose it is.

If all runs to the current projections I would be expecting alot more than that. 1 heavy soft hail shower can give 2"

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Just watched the Sky News Weather..... Quote 'A significant snow event....up to 2 inches of lying snow'. Thats pretty insignificant don't you think? Or on the other hand if you look back at the last 5 years, I suppose it is.

If all runs to the current projections I would be expecting alot more than that. 1 heavy soft hail shower can give 2"

I remember on the 3rd Jan 2008 event we had a very heavy hail shower which left a covering sadly it melted and not alot of snow actually settled(apart from on the grass) despite the showers being quite frequent. The start of this event looks to be happening after daylight hours so at least we should see lying snow this time around.

I hope this thread will become a little bit more busy once Sunday night comes, i'm sure it will. :D

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I hope this thread will become a little bit more busy once Sunday night comes, i'm sure it will. :)

Oh I think it will !!! It's just the calm before the storm right now, models can't really tell us much more, it's now down to waiting for the radar - 24 hours to impatiently sit through !!!

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Ok I am a member of SACRA but truly feel this has the potential to be an event we'll be still talking about in the summer.....and referencing back to in winters to come....well let's hope so

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Despite the GFS 18Z shifted the low slightly East i'm still convinced Monday nights event will be a snow turning to rain event and then the small risk of it turning back to snow as we get the cold uppers from the South again.

Mild uppers don't stay as long on this run so thats a bit of good news at least, we do want this Eastward trend to continue but we at the timeframe where we are not going too see an awful lot of difference.

Nevertheless, there is still a chance of a hour or 2 of snow before turning to rain so perhaps adding more snow that is already on the ground(hopefully on the ground!).

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Ok I am a member of SACRA but truly feel this has the potential to be an event we'll be still talking about in the summer.....and referencing back to in winters to come....well let's hope so

You could be right Phil, I hope so.

I think how memorable this is will depend on what falls on Monday evening/night, If it's snow then amounts could be pretty special.

If the only snow is from the showers tomorrow night and Monday, it could still be a good event but nothing out of the ordinary.

Our altitude will certainly help on Monday night, and could be the difference between snow and rain.

After this mild sector it seems quite uncertain what will happen. In the model thread people are backing the ECM as the more accurate model which is showing plenty more potential beyond the next few days.

This time tomorrow... :blush:

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Ey up all!

Thought i'd check in to the oop north subgroup before things get busy.

I'm a south Pennines weather watcher so will be able to warn our Lancastrian friends of and westward bound snowfall about half an hour before it gets them :doh:

I would expect to start to get one or two showers blowing over from lat afternoon Sunday which should give a covering overnight and probably lead to my daughter’s school being shut on Monday morn. (it is a little primary about 960 feet up the hill.)

I hope we will see some heavy snow showers on Monday but am at a bit of a loss as to what Mon night and Tue may hold….. I figure we will have a bit of a thaw at some point but hope that local factors may mean we stay fairly snowy until the ECM noreasterly arrives sometime late wed or thurs…

That’s the way I see it anyhow. I am confident of Haworth getting a fair bit of Snow as I grew up in Settle and remember the 70’s and 80’s Easterly stuff quite well.

Hello too to PP too as I’m sure he must be our local Professional Senior Meteorologist at the moment and look forward to his insight (and imput) B)

Good luck to all though (as i'm sure everyone who has checked in here would like Monday off work at the very least :lol: )

Ned :hi:

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cant wait for this event to get started,by this time tomorrow will be all white hopefully with a good few inches!

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cant wait for this event to get started,by this time tomorrow will be all white hopefully with a good few inches!

Yep, I hope so. While it's been a little quieter, I've been looking through the various charts, and the prospects

look absolutely superb. :fool:

I've already told the children that it's going to snow, and that they won't be at school early next week.

A lot of members have waited a long time for this, so I'm hoping the whole of the UK gets burried

Exciting times!!!! :lol:

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Yep, I hope so. While it's been a little quieter, I've been looking through the various charts, and the prospects

look absolutely superb. :fool:

I've already told the children that it's going to snow, and that they won't be at school early next week.

A lot of members have waited a long time for this, so I'm hoping the whole of the UK gets burried

Exciting times!!!! :lol:

personaly i still think it will be all snow on monday night, got that feeling hehe

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I think it could be snow most of the way too,just wish id booked monday off work anyway going to go in and book a half day so i can be radar watching by 1.00pm

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I was out at work early this morning and there was a few snow grains falling already,which bodes well for later on today when the very cold upper air reaches northern england.

Going out soon to play golf with the rest of the nutters. :):)

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playing Golf ?? hope your not going to be using white balls ROFL

Im off to father in laws soon, he lives nearer the coast, towards tynemouth, only staying for an hour though ,

nigel

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playing Golf ?? hope your not going to be using white balls ROFL

nigel

:) They could be blue by the time i'm finished :)

Latest netweather radar showing some convection down the eastern side already.

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Morning Nigel, yes indeed I am off to the coast later for a brisk walk with my grandkids- I reckon any snow will be later the afternoon and up to Monday evening-just a shame that this lot will not hang around much except on high ground.

:) They could be blue by the time i'm finished :)

Latest netweather radar showing some convection down the eastern side already.

Played yesterday -and by the time we finished it was bl++dy freezing-I am sure today will be colder-get your hand warmers at the ready.

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A lot of members have waited a long time for this, so I'm hoping the whole of the UK gets burried

That could well be the case if the BBC forecasts ar to be believed, don't think i seen the snow graphic so widely before, whether the reality will be like that or not remains to be seen but i think you will do quite well from this event. The mild sector has been downgraded on the 00Z run and your quite high up anyways(i think) so could be quite a decent snow event for you.

Still think its going to be a snow too rain event for me and the other folk who live quite on low ground around here despite the improvment in the mild sector but we should see a covering by Morning if not then we should see a covering by Monday afternoon at least. Lets hope this thread will become busier this evening.

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Morning,

Thought I'd join in as it does seem a little quiet on here so far. I feel like a kid at Christmas and I'm really hoping we get a proper covering overnight. I'm a teacher and I've still yet to have a snow day - really hoping I'll get one tomorrow. It took me 3 hours to get to work last time (I work in Tadcaster and it's normally a 30 min drive). Most of the kids didn't arrive either but school still wasn't closed.

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Just started here with really fine grains of snow, very light but definitely here. Wind also got up a bit as well.

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Been 'graining here all morning so I think it'll end up being worse than I thought (didn't expect anything 'till well into the afternoon). That said it can be blazing sun in 'Tod but miserable drizzle all day here in Hebden .....thanks hills!!!

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I got PPN evident on my window at the moment(it faces East) and we got very tiny drizzle falling. :)

Its a start i suppose.

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A flurry of snow grains 10 minutes ago-temperature which was 2.8c fell during it to 2.6c but has since recovered to 2.9c.

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