Does A Cold Winter Herald A Warm/settled Summer?

[Mondy]

Historically speaking, does a cold winter generally mean a warm summer is to follow? I don't know if this can be proved using archived charts or historical data, but be interested to know. In other words, how many warm/hot summers over the past 100 years have followed a cold winter the year previously.

I think that makes sense

Edited December 11, 2008 by Delta X-Ray

[Bottesford]

I suspect there is little to no link between winter weather and summer weather but I'd be happy to see some stats!

I live in hope this winter will be followed by a very hot summer - but that's just my personl preference!

[johnholmes]

absolutely no link whatever just the same as one that a cold winter follows a hot summer

Edited December 11, 2008 by johnholmes

[Thundery wintry showers]

Conversely, there is a positive correlation between cold winters and cool summers. I think this relationship is due to the fact that when we are in a period of cool climate and/or have low SSTs around Britain, it tends to be be cool all year round, rather than cold winter synoptics leading to cold summer synoptics.

It is certainly possible to get a cold winter followed by a warm summer. 1947 and 1955 were very good examples, while the exceptional hot summer of 1995 was followed by a fairly cold winter in 1995/96- also summer 1996 then turned out quite warm away from Ireland and north Scotland.

There was a recent study suggesting that positive NAO is inversely related to summer precipitation, but as it was based on recent data it may well have been biased by the dry summers and +ve NAO winters of the 1990s. I noted that it quoted 1997 as a good example of the -ve NAO, wet summer pattern and 1984 as a good example of +ve NAO, dry summer, when 1997 was hardly a typical wet summer, nor 1984 a typical +ve NAO winter.

So in short, I don't think this winter's weather will have any bearing on the coming summer's weather- the probability of a warm/cold summer is dependent on regional and global circulation and temperature patterns, and probably has little or no connection with the preceding winter.

Edited December 11, 2008 by Thundery wintry showers

[MP-R]

I guess the most recent example would be the winter of 2005/2006 followed by summer 2006! A cold winter was followed by a record-breaking summer.

[johnholmes]

and for everyone that seems to fit there are probably 4 or 5 that don't, so a success rate of 1 in 5 is no use statistically; it may be much longer odds than that.

[andy_leics22]

I guess the most recent example would be the winter of 2005/2006 followed by summer 2006! A cold winter was followed by a record-breaking summer.

A cold winter? I don't remember much snow here... Was it lower than average overall though?

[maidstone weather]

As the summer of 2003 was exceptional with heat, (38.5C recorded at Brogdale, near Faversham (Kent) on August 10th), I was wondering if anyone knew what the winter of 2002 was like in terms of cold?

[MP-R]

A cold winter? I don't remember much snow here... Was it lower than average overall though?

No, there wasn't a lot of snow but there were frequent periods of cold from January through to the last week of March. It was a frustrating February because it snowed everyday consecutively from 22nd-28th with no snow settling but it came properly on the 1st. The next good snowfall came on the 12th of March and then a two-week long cold spell ending on the 24th.

It was certainly a cold winter but probably not remembered as a snowy one. It was definitely below-average here!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Winter 2005/06 had close to average temperature across Britain as a whole, with a NW-SE split- the SE was fairly cold and the NW was fairly mild. It is remembered for being a cold one partly because of the southeast bias and partly because it was preceded by an exceptionally cold second half of November and followed by exceptional cold during the first two-thirds of March.

As for snow, the only widespread lying snow during the winter quarter occurred during the brief easterly outbreak on 27-29 December, when much of eastern England had a snow cover, of appreciable depth in some coastal areas. Other widespread lying snow events were confined to November and more especially March. I recall a couple of half-hearted easterlies, one in early January and one in late February, that only delivered localised snowfalls.

[Mondy]

I know many on here like to compare charts/data (historical) - so is it a given the above replies are gospel? Or can someone dig a little deeper and show that some cold winters of yesteryear do tie in with hot summers the following year?

Proof appears few and far between so far. Anyone can take a reply at face value.

There is no hidden agenda in this topic, just curious if truth be told.

[Don]

As the summer of 2003 was exceptional with heat, (38.5C recorded at Brogdale, near Faversham (Kent) on August 10th), I was wondering if anyone knew what the winter of 2002 was like in terms of cold?

Winter 2002/03 was slightly above the 71-00 average overall

December 2002 CET 5.7 (+0.6)

January 2003 CET 4.5 (+0.3)

February 2003 CET 3.9 (-0.3)

[Mondy]

very very hot summer followed by an exceptionally cold December.

What was the following Summer like? Which is what the topic suggests ;- )

Does A Cold Winter Herald A Warm/settled Summer?

[Gavin P]

If anything its the reverse. Many cold winters seem to be followed by generally poor summer (and cool years generally) Certainly a lot of the cold winters in the 60's and 80's were followed by poor summers. Of course the 40's were a little differant, with generally cool winters and warm summers. I suspect in the end its all random and there are no summer-winter/winter-summer connections at all.

[Weather-history]

absolutely no link whatever just the same as one that a cold winter follows a hot summer

Don't entirely agree with that John. There is a statistical bias towards a winter of less than 2C CET being rarely followed by a warm to hot summer.

1947 was the exception to this rule.

The CET average of the summers following winters of a CET less than 2.0 is 14.9, I think

Edited December 12, 2008 by Mr_Data

[Guest]

No - and apart from some winters with the odd cold snaps, there have not really been any abnormally cold winters in the past 45 years, though we have had 2 or 3 abnormally hot summers. But as far as I recall the summer of 1963 wasn't anything really to write home about.

The one thing I would say is that sometimes it appears that if we have a lovely warm dry spring, we so very often appear to pay for it during the summer.

[Methuselah]

I don't remember summer 1963 being all that hot or settled...Sometimes yes, sometimes no?

[Terminal Moraine]

I'm not sure how long the 'cold winter=hot summer to follow' tale has been around but speaking to people much older than myself when I was younger, it seems to have been re-inforced during the 1940s and early 50s when very cold weather in 1940, 1941, 1947 and 1955 was followed by at least one warm, summery month the following summer.

In the case of 1940, 1947 and 1955 the warm, dry weather lasted much longer than just one month and it does not take many such instances before it sinks into the collective psyche that there's a link between the two.

This is based more on the fact that cold, snowy winters and dry, warm summers linger much longer in the memory than mild, wet winters or cool, cloudy summers so if the former two are combined the memory is doubly re-inforced.

There have been many occasions when cold winters have been followed by uninspiring summers but, as very few people remember a non-descript summer, they have faded into oblivion.

[johnholmes]

Surely someone has already done this type of academic research and if not, why not? If this was an economics problem it would have been tested to death by now!!

its been done a number of times but some forget it seems; no statistical proof has ever shown any link at all.

[Mondy]

its been done a number of times but some forget it seems; no statistical proof has ever shown any link at all.

By whom? Can you provide links to show it has been done and that no statistical proof is apparent?

[Optimus Prime]

I don't remember summer 1963 being all that hot or settled...Sometimes yes, sometimes no?

Spring 1963 had some good mild spells. March was persistantly average through the month but a mild spell between the 18th-20th put it slightly above normal. April was almost exactly the same, last week was fairly warm so it was decently above average. May was cold throughout 3/4 weeks but with a very warm end.

June had a hot start and was mostly warm throughout. Warmest June since 1960 (which was very warm, similar to 2003 and 2006) however July and particularily August was forgettable.

1947 was the only real instance. 

[johnholmes]

By whom? Can you provide links to show it has been done and that no statistical proof is apparent?

the quickest way without me searching

a) through my masses of data accumulated over the years in weather forecasting

searching through either this site or Googling,

is to e mail the Met Office and ask them if they could help. There is certainly a lot in the library, its just whether they have it more readily to hand.

hope that helps

[The PIT]

By whom? Can you provide links to show it has been done and that no statistical proof is apparent?

Try the search function of the forums as this questions comes up a lot. I'm sure Mr data would have published some data to this effect at sometime.

[cheeky_monkey]

i would say in recent times the opposite is somewhat true.

summer 1975 was preceeded by a very mild winter 74-75

record breaking 1976 was preceeded by a mild winter 75-76

summer 1989 was preceeded by a very mild winter 88-89

summer 1990 was preceeded by a very mild winter 89-90

summer 1995 was preceeded by a mild winter 94-95

[Weather-history]

the quickest way without me searching

a) through my masses of data accumulated over the years in weather forecasting

searching through either this site or Googling,

is to e mail the Met Office and ask them if they could help. There is certainly a lot in the library, its just whether they have it more readily to hand.

hope that helps

I take it John you haven't read my post in this thread but there is some evidence that a really cold winter does not favour a really warm summer to follow it.

Of all the winters that had a CET of less than 2.0, the following summers had a CET average of 14.9 (0.4 below the 1961-90 CET average)

Edited December 13, 2008 by Mr_Data