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chionomaniac

Stratosphere Temperature Watch

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I think a little time has to be given regarding the 30mb level. I don't think we can assume it will happen immediately, just like that, necessarily.

I wouldn't be surprised to see an initial slight to moderate warming - evough to weaken the PV. Any warming will weaken the PV after all. Then, further warming which will complete the exercise. But I think we need to let events unfold - this evolution isn't over yet. A faily major warming is still quite possible IMO :)

Indeed, this is what happened last year, an initial warming was fallowed by a few others which gradually had an impact on the 30hpa level. Besides, even November's minor warmings allowed enough blocking to develop for the cold spells in December.

Karyo

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I think a little time has to be given regarding the 30mb level. I don't think we can assume it will happen immediately, just like that, necessarily.

I wouldn't be surprised to see an initial slight to moderate warming - evough to weaken the PV. Any warming will weaken the PV after all. Then, further warming which will complete the exercise. But I think we need to let events unfold - this evolution isn't over yet. A faily major warming is still quite possible IMO :)

It would be interesting to know what is happening with the west QBO - again, I would relate what is happening in the stratosphere, and the potential intensity of any warming, with how this phase is waning. As Jim H has said, it could be an 'indicator' warming.

I think the QBO isn't weakening quite as fast as predicted from what I read on Eastern but don't know how accurate this is. From what I take ( reading between the lines regarding what Jim said) is that this may be a minor warming which could precondition the stratosphere for a second shot of a more substantial event which could be a MMW. Is that your take on it?

I am probably just being impatient!

c

Edit Yes I am definitely being impatient. Latest NCEP update at T+240

post-4523-1231936360.gif

post-4523-1231936585.gif

Now that looks better!

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection
I think the QBO isn't weakening quite as fast as predicted from what I read on Eastern but don't know how accurate this is. From what I take ( reading between the lines regarding what Jim said) is that this may be a minor warming which could precondition the stratosphere for a second shot of a more substantial event which could be a MMW. Is that your take on it?

I am probably just being impatient!

c

Yes, for now, I would go along with that :)

Believe me I'm impatient too! :)

Regarding the QBO, I think that Jims arguement is that the warming is a reflector indicator of the relaxation of the QBO as well as a result of the asian mountain torque etc. A strong west QBO is not by definition conduisive for major warming and vortex reversal. This must be surely, at the very least, be some weakening to allow the current developments. I too could be missing something here though.

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection
Latest NCEP update at T+240

post-4523-1231936360.gif

post-4523-1231936585.gif

Now that looks better!

That does look better. I have just seen the comments you refer to on the QBO. Not sure how that fits in with the bigger picture myself. Be interesting to have some other opinion on that

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Ideally I would like to see evidence pretty soon that these are going to propagate down to the 30hPa level, which is already showing signs of the warming tailing off before we get above average.

Predictions are suggesting that the warming at the 30hpa level could go above average

http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/...mps&alert=1

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post-7011-1232017615_thumb.png

post-7011-1232017676_thumb.png

The zonal winds look like turning easterly at the 10 hpa level.

The temps go off the scale at the 10 hpa level and it looks as though it will propagate down to th 30hpa level. All in all excellent news.

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Being a idiot at all this, those predicted temps seem to be incredible.......possibly even unprecedented ?.

What on earth would the impact be...

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Being a idiot at all this, those predicted temps seem to be incredible.......possibly even unprecedented ?.

What on earth would the impact be...

It looks spectacular, doesn't it?

The truth is it has happened before. I think the last significant warming was February last year which lead to northern blocking in March and April. This resulted in the potent wintry spells we experienced in the first half of spring. This time, the warming is occuring earlier which is good news.

The excellent news is that the lower part of the stratosphere (30hpa) is also likely to be affected as this was a bit of a concern in the last couple of days.

Karyo

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do remember these are forecasts and, at times, they are a touch away from what actually happens!

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Predictions are suggesting that the warming at the 30hpa level could go above average

http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/...mps&alert=1

Yep - thats one we have been waiting for. Looks like a large warming to me and implicates high latitude blocking down the road if verified.

This forecast does suggest polar easterlies down the line. Fingers crossed for it.

Excellent to see! :oops:

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im still far from convinced that warming has any significant impact on our weather in terms of cold and wintry synoptics..in fact the more historic warming events are posted the less convinced i become..it seems just as many events have no effect on lower cets or inducing wintry outbreaks as those that do.

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Predictions are suggesting that the warming at the 30hpa level could go above average

http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/...mps&alert=1

Yes this is good to see Mr D. The range of the ECM forecasts is two days short that of the GFS/NCEP so it is good to see that the ECM is trending towards a vortex split SSW as well.

Being a idiot at all this, those predicted temps seem to be incredible.......possibly even unprecedented ?.

What on earth would the impact be...

This warming may be one of the biggest ever seen at the 10hPa level if the ECM forecast is any thing to go by. Below are the lowest and warmest anomalies recorded since the start of NCEP data monitoring (since 1979). As you can see the temp would change from almost a record low to a record high.

post-4523-1232022308_thumb.png

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

To qualify/quantify this warming further, and to be especially critical and perhaps not over ramp lol!, a further indication of warming at the 30mb level would really put icing on the cake. So whilst this does indeed suggest some polarity reverse, a further rise at the lower level would heighten confidence even further.And there is no reason why this shouldn't occur in subsequent forecasts.

This does look very much like it could be a 'take two' of the warming last year - which did very much impact the surface - albeit after winter had finished. However this time, assuming it is a copy cat type of thing, is occuring a fair bit earlier and has have very positive implications for next month.

Another day or two should confirm things - hopefully for the best.

It also goes to show that a west QBO isn't necessarily a total kill-joy to an SSW.

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Yep - thats one we have been waiting for. Looks like a large warming to me and implicates high latitude blocking down the road if verified.

This forecast does suggest polar easterlies down the line. Fingers crossed for it.

Excellent to see! :oops:

The zonal wind anomalies graph is looking better today. I wonder is the stratospheric vortex akin to riding a bike. The stronger the bikes wheel rotate , the worse the crash when someone sticks a rod into the spokes.

post-4523-1232022607_thumb.png

awaiting NCEP updated forecasts.

im still far from convinced that warming has any significant impact on our weather in terms of cold and wintry synoptics..in fact the more historic warming events are posted the less convinced i become..it seems just as many events have no effect on lower cets or inducing wintry outbreaks as those that do.

A fair point and certainly more research needed in this field. There may be certain types of stratospheric warmings/coolings that effect us more than others. It may be that the correlation hasn't been found yet. Having said that, the PV has increased in strength and does seem to be forecast to be situated near Greenland, and this does fit in with the suggestions when the stratosphere started to cool towards the end of last year.

To qualify/quantify this warming further, and to be especially critical and perhaps not over ramp lol!, a further indication of warming at the 30mb level would really put icing on the cake. So whilst this does indeed suggest some polarity reverse, a further rise at the lower level would heighten confidence even further.And there is no reason why this shouldn't occur in subsequent forecasts.

This does look very much like it could be a 'take two' of the warming last year - which did very much impact the surface - albeit after winter had finished. However this time, assuming it is a copy cat type of thing, is occuring a fair bit earlier and has have very positive implications for next month.

Another day or two should confirm things - hopefully for the best.

It also goes to show that a west QBO isn't necessarily a total kill-joy to an SSW.

When I started looking at the QBO correlations recently that is the conclusion that I was beginning to reach!

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The zonal wind anomalies graph is looking better today. I wonder is the stratospheric vortex akin to riding a bike. The stronger the bikes wheel rotate , the worse the crash when someone sticks a rod into the spokes.

awaiting NCEP updated forecasts.

A fair point and certainly more research needed in this field. There may be certain types of stratospheric warmings/coolings that effect us more than others. It may be that the correlation hasn't been found yet. Having said that, the PV has increased in strength and does seem to be forecast to be situated near Greenland, and this does fit in with the suggestions when the stratosphere started to cool towards the end of last year.

When I started looking at the QBO correlations recently that is the conclusion that I was beginning to reach!

That is a very good analagy - very much what happens I think.

I think that these events very much affect our surface weather. The state of the stratosphere has its biggest influence on surface patterns most especially between New Year and into the Spring. So any cooling event prior to this time will influence the polar vortex and the AO during the deepest part of winter, whilst the time it takes for any warming event to show up after any previous cooling will determine if the winter period itself is affected at the surface by any subsequent breaking up of the vortex and drop in the AO to negative.

There may be an illusion created that these events do not affect our weather becasue in recent years there have been early cooling events and late warmings. So the effects appear less muted other than an extended period of atlantic zonality due to the early cooling and the late warming. This winter season has already broken that mold, with a late cooling and now a forecasted potentially very strong warming coming hard on its heels and significantly earlier than the last couple of winters certainly.

Regarding the QBO - I think it has cast doubts on my previous thinking. More to learn about I guess!

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Strong sustained mountain torques over Asia (southward displaced Asian Jet) and a notable -ve torque event over N. America may be the causal factors here, more or less occuring within the last 10-12 days and showing up in stratospheric forecasts:

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I would speculate that from what i have seen in the stratospheric warming website northern blocking could start to take effect before the months end and then grow stronger as we head on into February.

If we are talking Arctic highs ushering in the cold then we could be looking at some serious cold weather for Europe and the UK.

There is no reason to think this can not happen as many places in the northern hemisphere has experienced record cold or near record cold already this winter.

This is not meant to be a ramp by the way even though it does sound it.

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I would speculate that from what i have seen in the stratospheric warming website northern blocking could start to take effect before the months end and then grow stronger as we head on into February.

If we are talking Arctic highs ushering in the cold then we could be looking at some serious cold weather for Europe and the UK.

There is no reason to think this can not happen as many places in the northern hemisphere has experienced record cold or near record cold already this winter.

This is not meant to be a ramp by the way even though it does sound it.

There are the first hints looking at the latest NCEP forecast and suggestions from the US that the split may not reach the tropopause layer, so I reckon it is a case of waiting and seeing.

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just to show how far we have to go at 30mb before it gets to the normal clikcon the link below

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/...e/pole30_n.html

I've found it pretty good in the last 12 months, well the winter half of it, in my lrf issues.

I would suggest that any colder weather from any warming will not take effect before about the middle of February. That is not to say other factors may not try to over ride this before then.

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I must admit I haven't been checking the projected warming rate of the stratosphere as of late due to the fact that others have insuated that it is looking very likely to happen soon. Great news indeed. However, I had no idea we were going to those sort of warm levels quite quite so quickly! This will make February a very interesting month indeed.

I admit my understanding in this field, other than the basic principles of, is limited but I have always found that there is a very good correlation between what happens up there and the weather we get down below.

The fact it is (hopefully) happening mid Jan is great news indeed.

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Crazy stuff this morning with the 30hpa temperatures forcast to rise 40 degrees from -80 to -40 the zonal wind is expected to turn easterly at 10hpa as well.

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Crazy stuff this morning with the 30hpa temperatures forcast to rise 40 degrees from -80 to -40 the zonal wind is expected to turn easterly at 10hpa as well.

Not quite by the ECMWF forecast. It seems that the critical easterly reversal line is just above the 7 hPa level.

http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/...p;forecast=f192

Furthermore, there is a suggestion on this forecast that this is as far down that the easterly wind will reverse to before the westerlies increase again.

post-4523-1232099904_thumb.png

c

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Furthermore, there is a suggestion on this forecast that this is as far down that the easterly wind will reverse to before the westerlies increase again.

post-4523-1232099904_thumb.png

c

That's still a significant stratospheric warming! As for the zonal winds, this is the first time they are expected to turn easterly since the beginning of this period (Nov 1st). Even the slightly above average stratospheric temperatures of November resulted under a period of westerlies. So we should do better this time!

Besides, GP in one of his posts (post 161 to be exact) said that zonal wind anomalies in the 25-30m/s mean value are 'acceptable'.

I am very pleased with the current forecast and hopefully this will be the first in a series of warmings like it happened last year.

Karyo

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That's still a significant stratospheric warming! As for the zonal winds, this is the first time they are expected to turn easterly since the beginning of this period (Nov 1st). Even the slightly above average stratospheric temperatures of November resulted under a period of westerlies. So we should do better this time!

Besides, GP in one of his posts (post 161 to be exact) said that zonal wind anomalies in the 25-30m/s mean value are 'acceptable'.

I am very pleased with the current forecast and hopefully this will be the first in a series of warmings like it happened last year.

Karyo

Yes it is good to see, and the 30mb forecast has extended further today which will help. We are going to need another warming pulse though before the polar vortex is slayen and this might not be felt at the surface till Spring like last year. There seems to quite a similarity between this event and that one.

However, there are other factors outside of the stratosphere that differentiate this year to last, as we know, so still everything to play for :lol:

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Yes it is good to see, and the 30mb forecast has extended further today which will help. We are going to need another warming pulse though before the polar vortex is slayen and this might not be felt at the surface till Spring like last year. There seems to quite a similarity between this event and that one.

However, there are other factors outside of the stratosphere that differentiate this year to last, as we know, so still everything to play for :lol:

But don't forget this warming seems to be around a good month earlier than last year :D

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