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chionomaniac

Stratosphere Temperature Watch

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10hPa warming close to record levels already

post-4523-1232639553_thumb.png

c

This event is very interesting. The current very low solar minima we are in conjunction with the perturbation cycle and solar polar reversal from odd cycle to even seems to be an interesting combination. There is no analogue to compare to that I can find and on this basis currently for Feb bets are off for me, with the signal for the jet to remain south there is real opportunity here and for the signal I had for blocking to NE to extend to Greenland. This I anticipated to be in place by now, or iminent, but it seems delayed [or not to happen] so I'll so a little review and see where I go from here.

BFTP

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The conditions which set off a stratospheric warming or disturbance or the vortex include persistent anticyclones and rossby wave breaking. Since la nina relates to strong trades and a fixed pattern of anticyclines either side of the date in the pacific then this would possibly provide a strong trigger for the stratospheric disturbance.

If you had analysed the QBO though you may have come to different conclusions so the splitting is rather unusual compared to recent years for this time of year. The details at the moment from the stratospheric forecast are not quite working out for a cold spell in the UK, but it does look like a cross polar flow may start up. What I would point to is some pretty unusual weather across the US.

ECM deterministic forecast is not that encouraging though at the minute for UK snow or for tropospheric weather to reflect conditions in the stratosphere. We wait and see how it develops as there would appear to be good indications for north atlantic ridging despite what the models show.

downbeat analysis there. i thought early feb was where we were looking.

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The conditions which set off a stratospheric warming or disturbance or the vortex include persistent anticyclones and rossby wave breaking. Since la nina relates to strong trades and a fixed pattern of anticyclines either side of the date in the pacific then this would possibly provide a strong trigger for the stratospheric disturbance.

If you had analysed the QBO though you may have come to different conclusions so the splitting is rather unusual compared to recent years for this time of year. The details at the moment from the stratospheric forecast are not quite working out for a cold spell in the UK, but it does look like a cross polar flow may start up. What I would point to is some pretty unusual weather across the US.

ECM deterministic forecast is not that encouraging though at the minute for UK snow or for tropospheric weather to reflect conditions in the stratosphere. We wait and see how it develops as there would appear to be good indications for north atlantic ridging despite what the models show.

Brickfielder, with this stratospheric warming what implications would this have on the us?

Thanks,

Chris from the other side

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The stratospheric warming is proceeding as forecast. If one looks at the following link then the zonal mean winds are set to reverse between today or tomorrow at the 10 hPa level.

http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/...mp;forecast=all

So, I guess that the central date of the MMW is likely to be the 23rd or 24th of Jan. We shall see. At this level the winds are still forecast to be strongly negative a week away, before they will probably wane and reverse back to westerly. A not insignificant period of time.

It looks like the ECMWF will need to reassess the temperature indices on 10 hPa temperature graph for next year. I thinks we will find this the greatest warming at this level since records started.

post-4523-1232699794_thumb.png

c

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Just want to say that during my break I was following this thread avidly. The posts from chionomaniac & NSSC have been superb especially from a learning perspective.

Not only is this current warming going to be interesting in how it affects our weather patterns over the next few weeks but it also proves to be a valuable lesson for future winters.

The temp of the stratosphere may only be one jigsaw puzzle amongst many others but for me its a very important part and may prove to be so over the next few weeks.

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Just want to say that during my break I was following this thread avidly. The posts from chionomaniac & NSSC have been superb especially from a learning perspective.

Not only is this current warming going to be interesting in how it affects our weather patterns over the next few weeks but it also proves to be a valuable lesson for future winters.

The temp of the stratosphere may only be one jigsaw puzzle amongst many others but for me its a very important part and may prove to be so over the next few weeks.

Thanks Dave, Good to see you posting again and I wish you all the best.

Fingers crossed that this strat warming can deliver something to these shores but nothing is guaranteed.

c

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

The 30hPa level is predicted to spend several days with good negative values too.

Also the 50hPa level joins in the MMW party

ecmwf50f216.gif

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Ah Jethro - you beat me to it. Another linkie:

http://www.ncas.ac.uk/index.php?option=com...&Itemid=249

Interesting indeed...

'Cosmic-rays detected half a mile underground in a disused U.S. iron-mine can be used to detect major weather events occurring 20 miles up in the Earth’s upper atmosphere, a new study has revealed.'

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Ah Jethro - you beat me to it. Another linkie:

http://www.ncas.ac.uk/index.php?option=com...&Itemid=249

Interesting indeed...

'Cosmic-rays detected half a mile underground in a disused U.S. iron-mine can be used to detect major weather events occurring 20 miles up in the Earth's upper atmosphere, a new study has revealed.'

Would seem to reinforce the Svensmark theory? Shrinking Heliosphere due to lowered solar output allows more cosmic particles to reach the upper atmosphere, causes more Stratospheric Warming, leads to more blocking patterns over a period of time leads to climatic changes?

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Maybe - but so far it's just being touted as a detection method. Certainly it could be an easier & cheaper detection method for SSW than messing about with balloons & satellites... plus they have detection data going back many years to look over. It could help with weather forecasting if nothing else.

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Maybe - but so far it's just being touted as a detection method. Certainly it could be an easier & cheaper detection method for SSW than messing about with balloons & satellites... plus they have detection data going back many years to look over. It could help with weather forecasting if nothing else.

Hopefully, in the not too distant future, someone will do a study looking retrospectively at Cosmic Ray data and the Stratosphere now that this connection has been found.

When it comes to Svensmark, I'm still un- decided. Currently ploughing my way through "The Chilling Stars" again; after reading it when it was first published, I consigned it to the "perhaps" pile of theories. More information has since come through including a link found to Earth's magnetic field, now this too so perhaps there is a greater link than some scientists would have. Time will tell, but it's quite handy that the Sun has decided to take a nap.

It will be interesting to see what impact this latest SW event has on our weather.

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Thanks for the interesting links ladies :D

Keep digging - all contributions most welcome

Regards

Tamara

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It's interesting but its not in anyway saying that the sun has anything to do with the dramatic warming events.

It's saying that when there is an event the knock on impact is that more Muons are produced due to a warmer stratosphere causing more decay of cosmic rays.

Therefore with a bit of calibration the level of warming in the stratosphere can be deduced by the level of Muons hitting the earth.

As far as I am aware this has nothing to do with Svenmarks theory.

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Came across this: http://www.scientificblogging.com/news_rel...s_about_weather

Seems there may be a link between Cosmic Rays and SW.

Would the increase in cosmic rays have anything to do with a slackening solar wind and magnetic flux changes on the Earth due to pole reversal? Would be interesting to see if we could tie it in with major ice advances.

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Would the increase in cosmic rays have anything to do with a slackening solar wind and magnetic flux changes on the Earth due to pole reversal? Would be interesting to see if we could tie it in with major ice advances.

Nah, that's something different.

The lack of solar wind and magnetic flux [now] is due only to the transition period of solar cycle 23 to 24. There are still elements of 23 left, so all the to-ing and fro-ing between the cycles is keeping the wind/flux down.

With regards cosmic rays, I'm sure I read somewhere that it was infact proved they did indeed contribute to warming in Antarctica [or parts of]. I think it may be found in the climate change section, but I wouldn't go in there now as it's full of people having hissy fits (mostly the warming lot!)

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Hopefully, in the not too distant future, someone will do a study looking retrospectively at Cosmic Ray data and the Stratosphere now that this connection has been found.

I think that could be the plan eventually:

'Lead scientist for the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Dr Scott Osprey said: “Up until now we have relied on weather balloons and satellite data to provide information about these major weather events. Now we can potentially use records of cosmic-ray data dating back 50 years to give us a pretty accurate idea of what was happening to the temperature in the stratosphere over this time. Looking forward, data being collected by other large underground detectors around the world, can also be used to study this phenomenon.”'

With regards cosmic rays, I'm sure I read somewhere that it was infact proved they did indeed contribute to warming in Antarctica [or parts of]. I think it may be found in the climate change section

It's to do with cosmic rays breaking down CFCs which releases chlorine, which in turn breaks down ozone - leading to cooling in Antarctica because heat is escaping through the ozone hole.... *shrug*

http://focus.aps.org/story/v8/st8

http://news.mongabay.com/2008/0424-agu.html

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Cosmic rays from 01/01/2000 to yesterday.

post-4189-1232716960_thumb.png

I'm not sure if we can link the increase in Cosmic Rays to more frequent or stronger Stratospheric Warmings.

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A plea please.

Can this not turn into another argumentative thread about AGW.......Svenmark or anything else.

It's one of the best threads on NETW due to the informed posts by some at probably the most interesting time this year as we follow a potentially unprecidented warming event.

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Came across this: http://www.scientificblogging.com/news_rel...s_about_weather

Seems there may be a link between Cosmic Rays and SW.

That's very interesting. I always thought there where other unresearched influences on SSWs. Perhaps a thread can be opened in the Climate Change forum to investigate cosmic rays influence on the stratosphere.

c

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A plea please.

Can this not turn into another argumentative thread about AGW.......Svenmark or anything else.

Indeed. There's plenty of room for talk about climate change in the forum area that bears that name.

Please stick to direct discussion about the temp in the straosphere in this thread - will move o/t posts into that other area from now on.

Ta

:)

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potentially unprecidented warming event.

Glad I ducked out the climate threads - I'd have you for that!

Sorry, carry on....................................

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Latest NCEP update shows a complete flip of pressure at T+240 from low to high at 10 hPa. And also looking very good at 30 hPa. The longer the pressure reversal and negative mean zonal winds persist the more chance that tropospheric response will persist as well.

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post-4523-1232718335.gif

c

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