Stratosphere Temperature Watch

[chionomaniac]

Great to see the warming now actually taking place along with the reduction in zonal winds.

Easterly winds at 30hpa, this February could be one to remember. It will be interesting to see what the Met have to say in their winter update on the 22nd of Jan.

Yes you can see this occurring at the upper layers of the strat.

[chionomaniac]

If this forecast verifies then we will see the strongest ever net easterly wind recorded at 10 hPa level in a winter month (having looked through all the NCEP records).

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Morning all stratospheric watchers

The push upwards and intensifying continues, and the actual warming has started now too - so we are dealing with a bit of real time. The indicated reversal now showing at 30hPa is especially good news and is a real sign that this warming should effect a fair bit quicker than last winters

[karyo]

It is a good morning indeed!

I have to say things are looking better every day! As already mentioned, the stratospheric warming has already started and the zonal winds are not only expected to go negative but also stay negative: http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/...xes&alert=1

Also, as tundra mentions, it will be interesting to see to what extend the Met Office will take into consideration this warming in their update for February.

Karyo

[Typhoon John]

Looking at the current conditions I think there's a chance the warming could propagate down fairly quickly and start impacting the troposphere earlier than usually expected. If it occurs it will be interesting to see how quickly the models pick up on the changes.

[tundra]

Without wanting to get to far ahead of proceedings if all of this comes to fruition then we could well see record low temperatures across Scandinavia, Europe and who knows the UK as well.

I know no one is talking like this yet but this could be a very realistic outcome.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Some fairly strong warming at 30 hPa levels coming within an ever shortening time frame now

NCEP update

[WhiteXmas]

Sorry to seem ignorant/clueless but what exactly does all this mean for our weather exactly?

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

[chionomaniac]

Some fairly strong warming at 30 hPa levels coming within an ever shortening time frame now

NCEP update

[

Yes I was just in process of collecting these to post and you have beaten me to it!

I'll show 10 hPa level;

T+72 -in three days.

T+ 240 One spot of blue in NH and a good weeks worth of warming.

Also T+192 a good vortex split at 30hPa level. Thats great propagation so far.

I still think this is unprecedented in both forecast strength and also occurrence considering the west QBO solar minimum conditions. I wonder if GP has any thoughts?

Also with the PET cycle has BFTP any thoughts how this could influence the stratosphere?

c

[tundra]

Reading the stratospheric warming thread over on Theweatheroutlook (two), Tokyo have put out a strat warming alert.

[chionomaniac]

Sorry to seem ignorant/clueless but what exactly does all this mean for our weather exactly?

Further down the line ( 2-6 weeks) the strength of the tropospheric vortex can reduce if the warming and negative zonal wind anomalies can propagate through down from the stratosphere. This can then lead to high latitude blocking such as a Greenland High which the can bode well for our own cold chances.

The stronger the MMW and the greater the propagation and reversal of mean zonal stratospheric winds, the greater the chance of the high latitude block. That is why a lot of people are getting excited here.

This event so far, is forecast to be one of the strongest ever seen and at a time when the effects would still be in a winter month. Fingers crossed!

c

Edited January 20, 2009 by chionomaniac

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Yes I was just in process of collecting these to post and you have beaten me to it!

I'll show 10 hPa level;

T+72 -in three days.

T+ 240 One spot of blue in NH and a good weeks worth of warming.

Also T+192 a good vortex split at 30hPa level. Thats great propagation so far.

I still think this is unprecedented in both forecast strength and also occurrence considering the west QBO solar minimum conditions. I wonder if GP has any thoughts?

Also with the PET cycle has BFTP any thoughts how this could influence the stratosphere?

c

Yes, some thoughts on this would be welcome, I agree. I know that wrt to PET cycle that BFTP has previously suggested that cyclical changes in this respect are likely to engage more favourably in years to come in respect of our weather patterns than we have been accustomed of late.

Edited January 20, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I still think this is unprecedented in both forecast strength and also occurrence considering the west QBO solar minimum conditions. I wonder if GP has any thoughts?

Also with the PET cycle has BFTP any thoughts how this could influence the stratosphere?

c

Hi C

Had a little thought about this and the problem I have is this. The current minima is somewhat deeper than many expected and we have no analogues to compare to. The jet is kicking south big style and is one of the major signals that I picked up on in my method.

Currently I expected the cold pattern to be into place/iminent by now BUT it seems it is coming into place and we are definitely heading in the right direction. The pole reversal on the sun from odd to even cycle [hence back in sync with earth] produces the HALE winter and it is the reduced UV output affecting the ozone development [reduction] which reduces/slows atmospheric westerly flow hence we have seen very good cold spells even with AO not going negative or any SSW thus far. The jet simply gets generally shifted on a southerly track allowing for polar air to spill out further south as LPs have been able to penetrate further east rather than getting deflected up through the GIN coridor......big lack of mild SW'lies this winter thus far. It could be that when the SSW event occurs because of the cycle we are in it could be of magnified proportions....certainly worth following.

I went to little further detail on the 9th when I said the signal is there for NE Blocking to extend west through Iceland into Greenland. I think this is the case still and I think this will be evident earlier rather than later ie end of month in to Feb rather than mid Feb. I am not expert on the graphs shown etc as my forecast method is of lunar and solar influences but it seems that the graphs indicate a potential rapid signal for this to occur in timescale I mention.

BFTP

Edited January 20, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yes, some thoughts on this would be welcome, I agree. I know that wrt to PET cycle that BFTP has previously suggested that cyclical changes in this respect are likely to engage more favourably in years to come in respect of our weather patterns than we have been accustomed of late.

Do we mean the Perturbation Cycle? Also statistically I don't think there is any greater correlation between SSWs being greater of any note during eQBO against wQBO. I think we are entering times within the solar cycle where 'visible' analogue references may be rather sparse.

BFTP

Edited January 20, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[chionomaniac]

Do we mean the Perturbation Cycle?

BFTP

It's the Polar Eurasion Pattern Fred. Thanks for info so far I think an interesting Feb coming up. There has never been a MMW recorded before when we have the solar minimum combined with a wQBO. So uncharted territory and trying to find a reason.

[bluearmy]

what are the chances that all these factors combine to produce strong northern blocking with a specific european pattern that leave us in a south westerly flow - you wouldnt bet against it

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Do we mean the Perturbation Cycle? Also statistically I don't think there is any greater correlation between SSWs being greater of any note during eQBO against wQBO. I think we are entering times within the solar cycle where 'visible' analogue references may be rather sparse.

BFTP

Apologies - yes, it was indeed the Perturbation Cycle. Eagerness to ask/know/find out more spawns confusion!

Re +QBO, occurences of MMW within an active solar cycle are regarded as conduisive, so I understand it. However they are unprecedented within a westerly and low min. Unless the +QBO is transitioning to a -QBO. This westerly phases peaked in December and there is speculation how fast it is decaying to the easterly phase. Especially in light of the behaviour in the stratosphere

It's the Polar Eurasion Pattern Fred. Thanks for info so far I think an interesting Feb coming up. There has never been a MMW recorded before when we have the solar minimum combined with a wQBO. So uncharted territory and trying to find a reason.

As per reply just now - my fault for mix-up. Too many abbreviations flying about!

Edited January 20, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It's the Polar Eurasion Pattern Fred. Thanks for info so far I think an interesting Feb coming up. There has never been a MMW recorded before when we have the solar minimum combined with a wQBO. So uncharted territory and trying to find a reason.

Ahh the PETP! Yes like I say analogue references are sparse to say the least.

BFTP

[tundra]

I was just looking back over the zonal temperatures anomaly time series for 1985 and the doesn't appear to be much if any sort of lag between the warming and the height rises to the north in January.

I may be wrong but if it is true it may have been because it was a strong warming like this is forcast to be.

[Typhoon John]

I was just looking back over the zonal temperatures anomaly time series for 1985 and the doesn't appear to be much if any sort of lag between the warming and the height rises to the north in January.

I may be wrong but if it is true it may have been because it was a strong warming like this is forcast to be.

That's exactly what I think might happen, and I don't think the models will pick up on the correct pattern until the last minute.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I was just looking back over the zonal temperatures anomaly time series for 1985 and the doesn't appear to be much if any sort of lag between the warming and the height rises to the north in January.

I may be wrong but if it is true it may have been because it was a strong warming like this is forcast to be.

I agree, the lag will not IMO be of lengthy duration. The siganl remains for the pressure build to the NE to extend across towards Greenland. The secret is howfar south thejet pushes.

BFTP

[cheeky_monkey]

I agree, the lag will not IMO be of lengthy duration. The siganl remains for the pressure build to the NE to extend across towards Greenland. The secret is howfar south thejet pushes.

BFTP

me thinks its jus trying to make a pattern fit a time..seems ppl are saying the january 85 warming event was almost instant because it fitted the cold period..because 4-6 weeeks later didnt fit...take the major warming through dec 87..wat happened in jan/feb 88..ummm..nothing!!

[azores92]

me thinks its jus trying to make a pattern fit a time..seems ppl are saying the january 85 warming event was almost instant because it fitted the cold period..because 4-6 weeeks later didnt fit...take the major warming through dec 87..wat happened in jan/feb 88..ummm..nothing!!

true, but we have the easterly zonal winds on our side dont we?

[chionomaniac]

me thinks its jus trying to make a pattern fit a time..seems ppl are saying the january 85 warming event was almost instant because it fitted the cold period..because 4-6 weeeks later didnt fit...take the major warming through dec 87..wat happened in jan/feb 88..ummm..nothing!!

I think it is worth looking at the propagation of the increased temperature and decreased westerly winds. Some propagation occurs quicklyin some MMWs whilst in others there is a delay. Different MMWs produce different tropospheric responses and not every tropospheric response is going to affect us.

Here is some extra reading regarding stratospheric - tropospheric interactions:

http://www.nwra.com/resumes/baldwin/pubs/T...onetal_2002.pdf

It's a few years old so there will undoubtedly have been further progress in this field.

c