Stratosphere Temperature Watch

[SMU]

Latest NCEP update shows a complete flip of pressure at T+240 from low to high at 10 hPa. And also looking very good at 30 hPa. The longer the pressure reversal and negative mean zonal winds persist the more chance that tropospheric response will persist as well.

c

Yes, also there will be a correlation between longivity of Negative Wind Anomaly & Penetration Southwards of Cold air through CAA-

Looking quite stunning really- Feb 09 should be on a par with the best -AO years if this warming is anything to go by- lets hope though that it does indeed push the +VE height anomalies far enough South to ensure we are the right side of the PF..

S

Edited January 23, 2009 by Steve Murr

[weather eater]

I could most likely find this if I trawled through the thread but as I'm lazy can someone tell me how long we have been monitoring this phenomena

[chionomaniac]

I think one could say that this is record breaking

30 hPa warming not too far behind

[Iceberg]

It's difficult to comprehend a change in temperature of that magnitude and the movements of the air masses in response to it.

What might be scary is the rebound when it comes, if we see that level of warming in a big leap the effects on the Jet will be extraordinary and we could be looking at some very very unusual weather.

The stability though the atmospheric profile will also be concrete from surface to 10Hpa, we might also see a global temperature inversion.

Finally What do we do tomorrow when it goes off the chart ?, how will we know what it is ?

So many questions.......

[Weather-history]

Look at the soundings from Ny-Alesund Ii, Spitsbergen

10hpa

12z 16th Jan: -73.1C

12z 19th Jan: -53.1C

12z 20th Jan: -35.1C

12z 21st Jan: -4.9C

12z 23rd Jan: 8.8C

[tundra]

I have been following the solar cycle very closely for the last year over on the solarcycle 24 forum and with a very deep solar minimum we are experiencing is one of the reasons i for one was so looking forward to this upcoming winter.

I am strongly in the camp of very low solar activity = little ice age (LIA), colder solar system.

Who knows with a warming like this Europe and the UK could be in the freezer for several weeks.

If this is in the wrong thread please remove.

[Rollo]

My knowledge of sw is practicly nil but it would seem no matter what they are repercussions are likely on some major scale.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Quick little imput from me on this. We have left/leaving cycle 23 to enter 24 and this is the HALE cycle. When cycles leave odd to enter eventhe poles on the sun flip back to being in sync with earth. This leads to reduced UV and the interaction with Oxygen which produces ozone is reduced thus producing less ozone. This slows the westerly atmospheric flow and the jet becomes more amplified and gets squeezed south [we've seen that bear out this winter even with no major -ve AO or SSW.] So on top of this we are IMO entering into a true minimum and thus this is IMO having a further effect and what we see potentially ahead of us now is a SSW of unseen proportions by many. I see the jet remaining south due to the cyclic pattern of the sun and potentially this cold blast is going to develop very rapidly and models are toying with this....and I think we'll be in the firing line.

On my method I have no comparable analogue period but the flip from 39 to 40 is an era I looked at [mild decade generally to very cold western European winters.]

BFTP

[Iceberg]

Have we seen less ozone this winter so far ?. To my knowledge it's stayed pretty neutral. But I think again this is probably another discussion for another thread.

[phil nw.]

My knowledge of sw is practicly nil but it would seem no matter what they are repercussions are likely on some major scale.

Yes Rollo i am with you,lot`s to learn about this.

What a fascinating thread though great job C and Tamara--keep up the great postings.

[kaz]

Yes Rollo i am with you,lot`s to learn about this.

What a fascinating thread though great job C and Tamara--keep up the great postings.

just echoing what has already been said i had never heard of it before so thank you loads to learn

kaz x

[Typhoon John]

I think one could say that this is record breaking

30 hPa warming not too far behind

Can we assume that these measurements are accurate and will not be subject to revision?

[jethro]

May I ask when was the last time we had a similar situation, of a similar magnitude? (Apologies if this has already been mentioned and I missed it).

[chionomaniac]

Yes Rollo i am with you,lot`s to learn about this.

What a fascinating thread though great job C and Tamara--keep up the great postings.

just echoing what has already been said i had never heard of it before so thank you loads to learn

kaz x

Thanks guys for the positive feedback.

Can we assume that these measurements are accurate and will not be subject to revision?

A good point and one which I will check further, but if the ECMWF and JMA all show similar rises then I reckon that the temps recorded, will be very close to accurate even if further verification is necessary. It is not as if we are only just above previous recordings. This does look unprecedented, but the data only seems to go back to 1979 so who knows what would be recorded 40/50 yrs ago.

Edited January 23, 2009 by chionomaniac

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Thanks folks for your nice comments :lol:

In terms of a similar situation/event to this one - well, on the basis of just the couple of decades data to hand, it would appear very much in terms of strength at the 10hPa level that this is unprecedented. But as per the climate threads, there is a lot of history before the 1970's/80's!

However, trying to answer the question looking at the bigger picture - in terms of how how much propagation there will be and then, later, what impact this may have at the surface then an answer cannot be given just yet.

I think Steve M's post earlier today centre's much around how we will eventually be able to measure this. The longer that the strong warming is sustained, along with the negative zonal wind anomalies, and the more they can propagate downwards, then the greater the impact is likely to be at the surface for our neck of the woods in terms of how much CAA can get south, hopefully to our latitudes. It is possible to have extremely strong northern blocking, with a very big -AO but the convergence zone for the cold air can be too far north for our own benefit. Measuring the MMW in isolation of that in terms of potency of probable pressure changes at the pole - then this is surely going to be a most notable event. But we have to wait to see if it can be a notable event in terms of bringing some notable winter weather to us! lol!

Sticking my own little neck out, FWIW, I have got to say that I am quite optimistic of, at the very least, some sort of a result from this - but people expecting it next week for eg might need to manage some expectations. But that is perhaps a caution for the model thread :lol:

Edited January 23, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[chionomaniac]

May I ask when was the last time we had a similar situation, of a similar magnitude? (Apologies if this has already been mentioned and I missed it).

The two prime examples of coupled warming at both 10 hPa and 30 hPa are January 2006 and January 1987. This warming is on course to beat both. Both were I think displacement SSWs so it is difficult to compare with this present one which is a vortex splitting SSW. And of course there are many other factors to take into consideration if and when a SSW reaches the troposphere.

c

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

The two prime examples of coupled warming at both 10 hPa and 30 hPa are January 2006 and January 1987. This warming is on course to beat both. Both were I think displacement SSWs so it is difficult to compare with this present one which is a vortex splitting SSW. And of course there are many other factors to take into consideration if and when a SSW reaches the troposphere.

c

What's the greatest warming that's been recorded? It seems to me that if this is a major SSW (and with the temperature increase I cannot see it being anything else) there will be "Somewhere" experiencing record cold in the next 10-15 days. They have aleady have some record lows in the US this year (Maine and Illinios) could this take them even lower?

What are the odds of China suffering similar problems as last year with lots of disruption due to snowfall, perhaps the difference will be that the problems will be at the end of the holiday for new year, not at the beginning

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

The two prime examples of coupled warming at both 10 hPa and 30 hPa are January 2006 and January 1987. This warming is on course to beat both. Both were I think displacement SSWs so it is difficult to compare with this present one which is a vortex splitting SSW. And of course there are many other factors to take into consideration if and when a SSW reaches the troposphere.

c

My take on this is that the result may be a slower burner than say 1987, but then produce longer but not as intense results as 1987. That could be construed as a semi-ramp I suppose :lol: . But it would need to take into account the provisos I have just mentioned above *she adds hurriedly!*. Perhaps it is a potential Feb 86 (at its best) compared to an ice age week like 1987.

But, more seriously lol!, IMO it can't be assessed properly until we are in 'real time' and we get some idea of what effects, if any, there will be on the ground.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

My take on this is that the result may be a slower burner than say 1987, but then produce longer but not as intense results as 1987. That could be construed as a semi-ramp I suppose :lol: . But it would need to take into account the provisos I have just mentioned above *she adds hurriedly!*. Perhaps it is a potential Feb 86 (at its best) compared to an ice age week like 1987.

But, more seriously lol!, IMO it can't be assessed properly until we are in 'real time' and we get some idea of what effects, if any, there will be on the ground.

Hi T

I am scratching my head big time on this. I actually think we will have rapid development like '87 and a waning ie not prolonged 86 as I expect the blocking to shift around [Feb 86 seemed to be ever so static and my favourite winter month of my lifetime].

BFTP

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Hi T

I am scratching my head big time on this. I actually think we will have rapid development like '87 and a waning ie not prolonged 86 as I expect the blocking to shift around [Feb 86 seemed to be ever so static and my favourite winter month of my lifetime].

BFTP

Well it was all a bit tongue in cheek actually, at least to a degree. The truth is we don't know yet.Too early to know - this could have a few weeks at least to run. In terms of keeping the debate going I think that is great actually

Edited January 23, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[NorthernRab]

I think one could say that this is record breaking

30 hPa warming not too far behind

Well, :lol: ...I.... :lol: ...wow. If this was to be verified, we could certainly be on to something quite major.

[Fozfoster]

I have been following the solar cycle very closely for the last year over on the solarcycle 24 forum and with a very deep solar minimum we are experiencing is one of the reasons i for one was so looking forward to this upcoming winter.

I am strongly in the camp of very low solar activity = little ice age (LIA), colder solar system.

Who knows with a warming like this Europe and the UK could be in the freezer for several weeks.

If this is in the wrong thread please remove.

if what you say is true, come on ! i am glued to this thread, more info please

[shuggee]

Fozfoster - there's lots on the solar minimum, and the theories that surround solar influence on our weather in the science forum area and in the climate change area - peruse at your pleasure and enjoy!

Back to the stratoshpere

[Fozfoster]

Fozfoster - there's lots on the solar minimum, and the theories that surround solar influence on our weather in the science forum area and in the climate change area - peruse at your pleasure and enjoy!

Back to the stratoshpere

cheers shuggee

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

The MMW continues to progress as planned.

10hPa zonal winds are now on the brink of going negative and by early next week the 30hPa level will go negative too.

Following the main peak at both 10hPa and 30hPa levels still remain way above average right out to day eight of forecast with negative zonal anomalies sustained well too, before any indication of going back postive.

So all is looking very good to me towards assisting surface developments

Edited January 24, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection