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Here's your 'subsidy junkies' having dinner at their local food bank courtesy of the taxpayer.

 

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I don't imagine they'll ask for something that doesn't need warming up due to them not having the cash for electricity.

Edited by scottish skier

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Yet we focus on Benifit cheats which isn't really a big problem while we have our leaders cheating the system. I beginning to think they actually need a wage cut of 11%. May persuade the less honest to move on elsewhere and allow some with genuine interests to take their place.

Edited by The PIT

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No Tx, they do not; their only 'interest' lies in winning the next General Election. Never mind the body-count!

Totally agree, which is why (like my post in the UK Political thread) we need politics aimed positively at people for good, not for their political parties, 4-5 year thinking is certainly not long term enough and damaging the UK not helping it, all politicians only think long term for themselves and I mean *all* be they red, yellow, blue, purple, grey...

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Totally agree, which is why (like my post in the UK Political thread) we need politics aimed positively at people for good, not for their political parties, 4-5 year thinking is certainly not long term enough and damaging the UK not helping it, all politicians only think long term for themselves and I mean *all* be they red, yellow, blue, purple, grey...

Can't disagree with that post.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=suZb9Z0b05I

 

Was watching this earlier, Triple and No-Time should enjoy this..

 

I can't for the life of me see what's changed however beyond less sub-prime and a better capitalized banks so it seems like the cycle is rinse and repeat with a smaller bust. If i were a betting man i'd bet that the roaring twenties will be back.

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I guess this is probably the correct thread to post the link below,

 

 

http://www.theconstructionindex.co.uk/news/view/warning-sounded-over-planning-authorities-creating-aggregate-shortage#!

 

It may slow down construction in this country, worsen our balanceof payments and have the green lobby up in hours due to incresed travelling for the sourcing of materials. A thought provoking article. All political parties are very quick at making promises without looking at the practacalities of what they are promising. I doubt whether the current government will be able to deliver on their housing promises and the 200,000 per annum dwellings promised by thd opposition with effect from the final year of their administration should they be elected looks even less likely.

Edited by claret047

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Interesting article Clare. Once again the planning system found to be inadequate. There really shouldn't be a shortfall in this area.

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Well you can alter the planning system so everybody can build and quarry everywhere and lose areas of natural beauty. It's a question of what do you want. We need to reduce the population or balance it at one level.

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I guess this is probably the correct thread to post the link below,

 

 

http://www.theconstructionindex.co.uk/news/view/warning-sounded-over-planning-authorities-creating-aggregate-shortage#!

 

It may slow down construction in this country, worsen our balanceof payments and have the green lobby up in hours due to incresed travelling for the sourcing of materials. A thought provoking article. All political parties are very quick at making promises without looking at the practacalities of what they are promising. I doubt whether the current government will be able to deliver on their housing promises and the 200,000 per annum dwellings promised by thd opposition with effect from the final year of their administration should they be elected looks even less likely.

I am sure  they could go a long way towards their target if they renovated  existing unoccupied housing, especially in city centres - I can't understand this made dash to build completely new when so much of this still exists.

 

I would have thought the fiascos of the 60's should have taught them something when so many were demolished and replaced with hideous tower blocks and now some of the old terraced housing in London, which has been privately renovated is going for over a million quid.

 

Where were these planners when God was dishing out brains?

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Find this difficult to believe.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25519110

Its not the only economic organisation to forecast the UK overtaking Germany. Others have done so too. The CEBR projection saying by 2030 is different to the rest though who say by 2050. Its not really a surprise if you think about it, the UK population is growingly strongly (as a result of the highest birth rate in decades and fairly high net migration) while the German population is or is about to decline. The UK economy grew twice as strongly as the German economy so far this year and much much faster than the French. Whether the UK's GDP growth is sustainable or not is up to debate but if the UK maintains growth of 2.5% pa for the next 2 decades while Germany and France only have growth of 1.5% pa then yeah the UK would eventually become the top dog in Europe. 

Edited by Wales123098

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Did the CEBR accurately predict the 2007/8 -> financial crisis well in advance (e.g. 16 years or even just a couple)?

 

Putting that aspect aside, what is the predicted GDP per capita and GINI index? Those would be better for assessing levels of prosperity (note how e.g. Brazil with its shanty town slums and people living in huts in the forest is predicted to continue be ahead of the UK in terms of GDP).

Edited by scottish skier

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The CEBR is a libertarian think-tank that is mainly funded by the finance industry. I'm being cynical, but it's unsurprising that it arrives at the conclusion that the country with the least taxation and corporate regulation will have the best-performing economy.

Nevertheless, its analysis might not necessarily be wrong. Population growth will indeed benefit the absolute size of the UK economy while Germany's ageing population crisis is of a magnitude far greater than ours. The UK being English-speaking, the world language, will help maintain a steady flow of working-age migrants. Although Germany houses many 'powerhouse' urban areas, London is one of the main financial centres of the world and with sensible policy, the benefits of that are ripe to spillover to the rest of the UK to some degree.

It's really difficult to say with accuracy, though.

Edited by Harve

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Did the CEBR accurately predict the 2007/8 -> financial crisis well in advance (e.g. 16 years or even just a couple)?

 

Putting that aspect aside, what is the predicted GDP per capita and GINI index? Those would be better for assessing levels of prosperity (note how e.g. Brazil with its shanty town slums and people living in huts in the forest is predicted to continue be ahead of the UK in terms of GDP).

No; it didn't...And neither did any of those right-/left-wing think-tanks. They were all too busy making hay while the sun shined!

 

IMO, economic forecasters are even more useless than their meteorological counterparts. At least rain does actually 'trickle down'!

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Find this difficult to believe.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25519110

 

 

Me too all based on finical market???

 

Not sure why you think that? In the last boom to 2008 the UK closed to $800bn behind Germany (our growth rate during the last economic cycle (1992-2007) was appreciably higher) and has only declined to $1tn behind Germany since (growing faster in 2013 again as well). Additionally its notable that labour is still a more important factor of input than capital so on a nominal basis (possibly per capita given multiples as well) a rising labour force will fuel faster growth. With the current increase in the labour force and a rising birth rate the macroeconomic fundamentals in that area look very good (though the Anglo-sphere in general is recording high population growth).

 

Did the CEBR accurately predict the 2007/8 -> financial crisis well in advance (e.g. 16 years or even just a couple)?

 

Putting that aspect aside, what is the predicted GDP per capita and GINI index? Those would be better for assessing levels of prosperity (note how e.g. Brazil with its shanty town slums and people living in huts in the forest is predicted to continue be ahead of the UK in terms of GDP).

 

 

No; it didn't...And neither did any of those right-/left-wing think-tanks. They were all too busy making hay while the sun shined!

 

IMO, economic forecasters are even more useless than their meteorological counterparts. At least rain does actually 'trickle down'!

 

So far as i'm aware only a few individual economists predicted the financial crash (interestingly those far right as well - Austrian economists) but they were largely regarded as crazy and ignored.

 

On the per capita point i'll read the report and see if i can find that.

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On the economists being useful point in general, that's largely believed to be due to the fact that most models are linear but simply weighted rather than properly dynamic (i.e this report assumes a linear growth in population possibly weighted a historical birth rate average). 

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Is the UK remaining in the EU factored in?

 

How about Scottish independence?

 

What about immigration curbs as the UK is heading for?

 

How about UK governments over the next 16 years and their economic policies?

 

What about the global economy, governments in other countries, their economic policies?

 

What about conflicts in say the middle east and effects on oil prices?

 

What about say a large scale natural disaster or weather related phenomena such as a a series of freezing winters?

 

I find it amazing that a group of Tories in London can see the future with such clarity.

 

Basically, the report is dog biscuits. It may turn out to be partly true by pure chance of course, but otherwise it's meaningless guff by people smiling at the fact they're getting paid really well to produce guff and people even give it credence.

 

You can only predict with certainty what you already know.

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Is the UK remaining in the EU factored in?

 

How about Scottish independence?

 

What about immigration curbs as the UK is heading for?

 

How about UK governments over the next 16 years and their economic policies?

 

What about the global economy, governments in other countries, their economic policies?

 

What about conflicts in say the middle east and effects on oil prices?

 

What about say a large scale natural disaster or weather related phenomena such as a a series of freezing winters?

 

I find it amazing that a group of Tories in London can see the future with such clarity.

 

Basically, the report is dog biscuits. It may turn out to be partly true by pure chance of course, but otherwise it's meaningless guff by people smiling at the fact they're getting paid really well to produce guff and people even give it credence.

 

You can only predict with certainty what you already know.

1. It's still deemed unlikely that the UK will leave the EU & the consequences of the UK leaving the EU are also up for debate. 

2. Again its deemed very unlikely that Scotland will leave the United Kingdom, the report focuses on what the UK consists of today, obviously if Scotland voted to leave next year then the annual report which is released every December would reflect this next year. 

3. The report says that the prospect of controlled but fairly high immigration in to the UK is one of the reasons for the UK's good prospects. Even if immigration to the UK is slowing, the birth rate is currently at its highest since 1972. 

4. Again obviously if a Labour government is elected in 2015 and follows policies similar to that of Hollande's the UK's prospects could change dramatically. We already know that Labour want to raise corporation tax after the Tories have cut it. These policy announcements by Labour would undoubtedly hurt the UK's prospects. The report cites that competitive taxes in the UK is a reason for its success. 

5. If France elects a centre-right more business friendly govt which is deemed likely in the next elections then France's position might improve, indeed if Germany elects a government from the left which raises taxes on business, then Germany could fall behind the UK even sooner. 

6. Conflicts in the middle east and their effect on oil prices will effect most western countries equally there I see no reason why that would change the positions on the table (in terms of western economies). 

7. Natural disasters would obviously change prospects

There are many variables which could effect the table. Hence its an annual table, its a projection, its not set in stone, its what that business group and others predict. Also since when were the highly respected CEBR a group of Tories? 

It's important projections are made so investors can decide where the safest bet is to place their money. That being said in economics NOTHING is certain, doesn't mean that these projections can't be made, they are made, just not by the CEBR but by the OECD, the IMF and others and they all pretty much say the same thing just with slightly different time frames. 

Just because you don't like what it says doesn't mean you can discredit it. Search UK economy in Google and read up about current business confidence from large FTSE 100 companies to SMEs, confidence in the UK at the moment is booming, jobs are being created at an incredibly fast rate in the latest quarter and yes business groups do support the policies of David Cameron and as far as I can see the policies are working. The UK outperformed most western developed countries by far so far this year bar the United States. 

Forget politics and actually look at the data coming from the UK, its impressive, our economy is improving and we should celebrate it because eventually it will feed through to standards of living. 

This forum is about the state of the UK economy, not a forum about constantly bashing David Cameron, if you want to do that, go on the politics forums. 

Edited by Wales123098

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just because you don't like what it says.

 

Erm, where did I say that?

 

Why on earth would I not want the UK/rUK to do well economically?

 

But thanks for pretty much summing up exactly what I said. The report is dog biscuits as they'll need to make a new one if any of the significant variables change. Which of course they will in all probability. The 'yearly' report says at best they can have a rough idea out to one year in advance. Jeez, the Tory government OBR 'think tank' were 25% out on oil prices over just 3 years which is a massive error.

 

If a left wing think tank came up with a 16 year prediction (the CEBR are a right-wing think tank, hence 'Tories'), I'd question it's validity just as much for the same reasons.

 

--------

 

Here's another recent think tank report - again right-wing - does it agree with the CEBR one? Quite possibly. GDP could be very high but per capita low and people much worse off.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22765940

 

Families to be £1,800 a year worse off by 2015, IFS says

Edited by scottish skier

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just because you don't like what it says.

 

Erm, where did I say that?

 

Why on earth would I not want the UK/rUK to do well economically?

 

But thanks for pretty much summing up exactly what I said. The report is dog biscuits as they'll need to make a new one if any of the significant variables change. Which of course they will in all probability.

 

If a left wing think tank came up with a 16 year prediction (the CEBR are a right-wing think tank, hence 'Tories'), I'd question it's validity just as much for the same reasons.

The CEBR is not claiming THIS is what the positions of the largest economies will be in 2030. Its saying what it COULD be based on their forecasts. The report is not dog biscuits either and yes they do make new reports every year, hence its an ANNUAL report. As I said the projection is also similar to the likes of OECD and IMF projections, just on different time scales. That doesn't mean its wrong. Just look at the demographics of the UK and Germany. The UK population is growing strongly (Even without immigration) while the German population is declining, if that trend continues, then at some point maybe not in 2030 but within the next few decades the UK will overtake Germany. Simply being a right-wing think tank (I've searched online I can't find anywhere where it states its a right-wing think tank) doesn't mean its a Tory think tank either. Saying this report has been written up by a group of Tories in London is just wrong. 

 

Sorry for my provocative type of writing but as a second year economics undergraduate I came on here after a long time not bothering on netweather to see if I could add anything. All I can see is biased and left wing drivel from people who can't bear to see a Tory govt succeed on the economy. 

 

This thread should be about stating the facts of the British economy, not stating peoples political opinions. If you want to do that there is a UK politics thread. I'm willing to add to this page and state the facts, but from what I can gather this page is simply full of people going the 'statistics are wrong and fudged' and 'I hate the rich Tories'. 

Edited by Wales123098

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Ss, addressing those factors requires a range of dynamic modeling and their ensembles.

I'm not really sure its fair to call them cack given that their assumptions can suggest trends and its still better than no forecasting at all. After all most climate change modeling is also linear and I doubt most people would rather we didn't bother with such forecasts.

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The CEBR is not claiming THIS is what the positions of the largest economies will be in 2030. Its saying what it COULD be based on their forecasts....

 

...Sorry for my provocative type of writing but as a second year economics undergraduate I came on here after a long time not bothering on netweather to see if I could add anything. All I can see is biased and left wing drivel from people who can't bear to see a Tory govt succeed on the economy. 

 

This thread should be about stating the facts of the British economy, not stating peoples political opinions. If you want to do that there is a UK politics thread. I'm willing to add to this page and state the facts, but from what I can gather this page is simply full of people going the 'statistics are wrong and fudged' and 'I hate the rich Tories'. 

 

 

 

So we are totally in agreement. They can't predict the future at all. At the same time, the UK could be one of the worse performing based on changes to variables.

 

Sorry, but I make my living as a scientist and models that predict the future are taken with a massive pinch of salt as almost invariably they are wrong and when right, it's often by chance alone. Certainly, predicting the short term is very difficult, never mind over a decade in advance.

 

If anything, my main problem is with the way the media portray such reports from think tanks. The uniformed might think they sounded accurate when basically, they're speculation based on massive assumptions and projection (as SB says).

 

Lefties?

 

You righties worry about them under the bed / in the cupboard or something?  :-)

 

You need lefties. They are vital to you. Take away everyone to your left and you'd be an 'extremist' leftie in a potentially dangerous position for being so.

 

FYI I'm not a rightie nor a leftie.

 

I ask again - why would anyone want the economy to do badly, be they left or right?

Edited by scottish skier

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So we are totally in agreement. They can't predict the future at all. At the same time, the UK could be one of the worse performing based on changes to variables.

 

Sorry, but I make my living as a scientist and models that predict the future are taken with a massive pinch of salt as almost invariably they are wrong and when right, it's often by chance alone. Certainly, predicting the short term is very difficult, never mind over a decade in advance.

 

If anything, my main problem is with the way the media portray such reports from think tanks. The uniformed might think they sounded accurate when basically, they're speculation based on massive assumptions and projection (as SB says).

 

Lefties?

 

You righties worry about them under the bed / in the cupboard or something?  :-)

 

FYI I'm not a rightie nor a leftie.

 

I ask again - why would anyone want the economy to do badly, be they left or right?

The projection is not made on stuff out of thin air you know. Economics is a science, a science of money and projections are often made and respected. If your an SNP voter, in my book that makes you a leftie and as an SNP supporter the British economy out pacing most of the developed World is bad for the referendum (on the yes side) as it does indeed show Scotland is not weak by being in the UK. This could be a reason why you personally might want the UK to stay weak for the next year or so, not saying you do. As for others on here who constantly deny statistics as being fudged, they might want the UK not to succeed as they dont want the Tories to be vindicated on the economy come 2015. 

Lefties don't worry me, it just winds me up when I see people calling ONS, Markit, IMF and so on statistics as lies just because they show something they don't want to see. The way the likes of the ONS compiles data hasn't changed much since the last Labour govt was in office, to go around saying the figures are fudged etc is just ignoring the reality. 

 

Anyway I've made my point, I would like this thread to be about the state of the British economy, NOT political opinion which seems to be the case at the moment. Heres an interesting article you might want to read about the CEBR report. The article analyses what the CEBR is saying. http://wallstreetpit.com/102026-britains-ascendancy-europes-decline/

Edited by Wales123098

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