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Posted
  • Location: Medway - 125m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: Medway - 125m ASL

    Just thought I'd put an update in here:So

    Somee may remember I mentioned an old uni contact who was doing their PhD and was focusing on the decreasing number of UK storms, his initial findings are this: I am paraphrasing here and using laymens terms as this is how it was explained to me.

    Essentially over the last 20 years most years have had the roughly the same amount of storm potential (CAPE, LI etc) apart from a handful of years. Despite this number of UK storms has fallen rather dramtically for most places. So why is nothing come of this potential? To take El Gordo from last year as a case study, all the ingredients were there, but the cake didn't rise. Having studied the atmospherics (as in charges in the air, jet stream, etc etc) it appears that pressure which needs to drop for the storms to kick off is not doing so. Looking at the isobars etc when these potentials are forming it appears that the low pressure is being dragged southwards towards the equator. This has coincided with draught phases near the equator. Essentially the draught conditions are sucking the low pressure towards them in a sort of osmosis effect. Why this is happening they do not know, but apparently this is why we've seen the potential heading southwards over to France etc and then erupting there alongside the normal factors.

    It seems that countries in a similar position to us on in the southern hemisphere are experiencing very similar.

    Right I have no idea if that makes any sense or if that's accurate, but that's the jist of what he said.

    Any thoughts?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

    Just thought I'd put an update in here:So

    Somee may remember I mentioned an old uni contact who was doing their PhD and was focusing on the decreasing number of UK storms, his initial findings are this: I am paraphrasing here and using laymens terms as this is how it was explained to me.

    Essentially over the last 20 years most years have had the roughly the same amount of storm potential (CAPE, LI etc) apart from a handful of years. Despite this number of UK storms has fallen rather dramtically for most places. So why is nothing come of this potential? To take El Gordo from last year as a case study, all the ingredients were there, but the cake didn't rise. Having studied the atmospherics (as in charges in the air, jet stream, etc etc) it appears that pressure which needs to drop for the storms to kick off is not doing so. Looking at the isobars etc when these potentials are forming it appears that the low pressure is being dragged southwards towards the equator. This has coincided with draught phases near the equator. Essentially the draught conditions are sucking the low pressure towards them in a sort of osmosis effect. Why this is happening they do not know, but apparently this is why we've seen the potential heading southwards over to France etc and then erupting there alongside the normal factors.

    It seems that countries in a similar position to us on in the southern hemisphere are experiencing very similar.

    Right I have no idea if that makes any sense or if that's accurate, but that's the jist of what he said.

    Any thoughts?

    All I can say is that it just aint fair! Have you had any storms this year yet Lauren?

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    Posted
  • Location: Medway - 125m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: Medway - 125m ASL

    1 and a half I'd say JL.

    One proper nighttime one that lasted about 10 mins and one at work during the day that again lasted about 10 mins but wasn't really close enough for me to class it as a proper storm. Gradually getting less and less every year :(

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    Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

    Awww, although they are becoming fewer! do you think Autumn maybe better regards thunderstorms in your part of the country ? As you can see from my sig I got my first one in August this year after waiting 6 years I was over the moon Lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: Medway - 125m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: Medway - 125m ASL

    I hope so Jane!

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    • 8 months later...
    Posted
  • Location: Stevenage Herts
  • Location: Stevenage Herts

    come on peeps im a brontophobe and thursday is the day to watch for . im due at ascot and thinking of not going!! even tho i will be in the open air possibly during a massive storm please tell me i can do this !!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    come on peeps im a brontophobe and thursday is the day to watch for . im due at ascot and thinking of not going!! even tho i will be in the open air possibly during a massive storm please tell me i can do this !!

    You can do it, Biddie...Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Can't believe there are no recent posts in here with the storm that hit Scotland last week and the two that are forecast for this week. If they materialise or not, they make interesting thread reading and chart following. My camera will be on standby :-))

    Long time, no see...

     

    It's often the case, jo...I was living near Inverness, when the Black Bridge got washed away (1989). I think it came a poor second, behind all those London-based 'Twig Hits Yuppie's Car' stories...

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