The known history of solar activity

[Roger J Smith]

The history of solar activity in recent times

The research of Schove as reported in H.H. Lamb's work

Many weather-conscious people are very interested in solar activity, with the current predictions of a major decline and its possible effects on the weather.

Here, I discuss what evidence there may be for solar activity changes over the two thousand years since the time of Christ and the height of the Roman empire.

Schove was able to reconstruct the whole record from about 290 A.D. to the present, using various indirect methods before the Maunder minimum and the telescope era, since before about the time of Galileo (1610) there was no reliable way to view the Sun unless a thin layer of cloud happened to provide a safe opportunity. There were, however, many records being kept of auroral activity, mostly in China and Korea. Since auroral activity tends to correlate highly with solar activity (although with a bit of a lag, the northern lights are often most spectacular in the dying phases of a sunspot peak), Schove found it possible to come up with estimates of solar activity over a very long period with only a few minor interruptions where a lack of observations was either a sign of little solar activity, or no reliable auroral observations.

His record actually begins in 348 BC and indicates some strong peaks in centuries between that date and 290 where the continuous record begins. However, this data is so irregular that it is not worth considering it except to say that it seems to extend into the past the general concept that most of the time the Sun is active in the same way that it was in the 20th century. Periods of a less active Sun do show up at irregular intervals, but there was never one quite as long or as deep as the Maunder (1650-1715).

Schove divided his solar peaks into nine categories, from WWW (very weak) to SSS (very strong), and the approximate sunspot numbers for each category increase by about 10 for each group. Note that one of the strongest peaks was that of 1957. What follows here is a graphical presentation of the peaks as worked out by Schove and reproduced in Lamb's work, Climate, Past Present and Future (1977).

I have added in some recent peaks, and in accordance with general modern practice, I have changed Schove's 1804 peak to 1801 (this was a weak flat-topped peak). The 1905 peak had a secondary in 1907 that was virtually the same. A study of actual peaks shows that they seem to fall into two basic types, one what you might call a rapid spike with a long fade-out that almost always contains a minor secondary, and the second what you might term a flat-topped peak with several nearly equal peaks over 3-5 years. There is no telling what type the earlier peaks were, but since 1715, the main flat-top events would be 1883-85, 1905-08, 1937-41, and 1968-72. The rest are pretty much all spikes with long fade-out types. Some of the "peaks" in the Maunder minimum are just years with slight activity surrounded by many years with no activity.

Here's the list then, the vertical scale here is pretty much one line per 10.5 years, but is not precisely correlated to the time series. The differences are minor over this long of a period. The horizontal scale shows the intensity of each peak with the year number positioned to show that intensity (the further to the right it is, the more intense it is). In general, there is a reliable dependence between intensity and numbers of years in a cycle with significant activity, but sometimes the whole pulse speeds up, see for example 1761, 1769, 1778, 1787.

..................290

........................302

...............311

...............321

.........330

.........342

.....................354

.....................362

........................372

...............387

...............396

.........410

.........421

..................430

..................441

.....................452

.........465

..................479

...............490

........................501

.....................511

.........522

.....................531

...............542

...............557

........................567

...............578

.....................585

............597

.........607

...............618

............628

...............642

..................654

...............665

.....................677

.........689

.........699

.....................714

.....................724

.........735

........................745

...............754

........................765

..................776

.........787

..................798

.....................809

.........821

.....................829

........................840

..................850

...............862

.....................872

...............887

.........898

.........907

...............917

........................926

..................938

............950

........................963

........................974

...............986

.........994

.....................1003

...............1016

...............1027

.........1038

......1052

...............1067

...............1078

...............1088

........................1098

............1110

........................1118

.....................1129

........................1138

.....................1151

............1160

..................1173

..................1185

...............1193

........................1202

...............1219

...............1228

...............1239

............1249

...............1259

...............1276

...............1288

.........1296

...............1308

...............1319

...............1324

.........1337

............1353

........................1362

...........................1372

..................1382

...............1391

...............1402

......1413

............1429

............1439

............1449

............1461

......1472

......1480

............1497

.........1505

...............1519

........................1528

.....................1539

.....................1548

........................1558

........................1572

.....................1581

............1591

............1604

...............1615

..................1629

............1639

......1649

......1660

.........1675

......1685

...1693

......1705

.....................1718

........................1727

.....................1738

...............1750

...............1761

..................1769

........................1778

........................1787

............1794 (shoulder of 1787 peak)

......1801

......1816

............1830

........................1837

.....................1848

..................1860

........................1870

.........1883

...............1893

.........1905

..................1917

...............1928

.....................1937

........................1947

...........................1957

..................1968

........................1979

........................1989

..................2001

Some analysis to follow ...

[Roger J Smith]

I copied the extensive records above so that I could provide a commentary to the right. All comparisons to the "modern active phase" refer to the start of 1917-2001 end of cycle. This is not to say that the modern active phase is definitely over but we are seeing a longer inter-cycle quiet period here. One should bear in mind that there is almost always an inter-cycle quiet period where one cycle fades and the new one appears (with reversed magnetic polarity usually the sign of this in the modern period, before which we don't have that data).

..................290

........................302

...............311

...............321

.........330

.........342

.....................354

.....................362

........................372........................This 4th century data indicates only a modestly active Sun

...............387

...............396

.........410

.........421........................................this looks like a fairly major shutdown

..................430

..................441

.....................452

.........465

..................479

...............490

........................501

.....................511

.........522

.....................531

...............542

...............557

........................567......................................the 5th and 6th centuries seemed to pick up to almost modern levels

...............578

.....................585

............597

.........607

...............618

............628

...............642

..................654

...............665

.....................677.......................................the 7th century started with a quiet phase and never really got that active

.........689

.........699

.....................714

.....................724

.........735

........................745

...............754

........................765

..................776

.........787

..................798

.....................809

.........821

.....................829

........................840

..................850

...............862

.....................872........................................the 8th and 9th centuries, another period of sporadic activity not up to

...............887..............................................modern active standards and including several long quiet spells

.........898

.........907

...............917

........................926

..................938

............950

........................963

........................974......................................the 10th century, a little more active than previously

...............986

.........994

.....................1003

...............1016

...............1027

.........1038

......1052......................................................the mid-11th century, almost as quiet as the Maunder

...............1067

...............1078

...............1088

........................1098

............1110

........................1118

.....................1129

........................1138

.....................1151

............1160

..................1173

..................1185

...............1193

........................1202........................................the 12th century to 1202, quite an active phase like the 20th

...............1219

...............1228

...............1239

............1249

...............1259

...............1276

...............1288.................................................the 13th century, dropping back slightly but still regular and active

.........1296

...............1308

...............1319

...............1324

.........1337

............1353

........................1362

...........................1372.....................................the 14th century, ramping up to this grand peak similar to 1947-57

..................1382

...............1391

...............1402

......1413

............1429

............1439

............1449

............1461..............................................the 15th century, a much less active Sun, weakening as the century progreses

......1472

......1480

............1497

.........1505.................................................almost like the Maunder from 1465 to 1515

...............1519

........................1528

.....................1539

.....................1548

........................1558

........................1572...................................the 16th century like the modern active period but not as sustained

.....................1581

............1591

............1604

...............1615

..................1629

............1639...............................................the early 17th century, a rather quiet active phase, then the Maunder

......1649

......1660

.........1675

......1685

...1693........................................................heart of the Maunder min, this "peak" was virtually no activity at all

......1705

.....................1718

........................1727

.....................1738

...............1750

...............1761

..................1769

........................1778

........................1787..................................the 18th century so similar to the 20th, note the long fade out after 1787

............1794 (shoulder of 1787 peak)

......1801

......1816.....................................................a more recent minimum for a quarter century

............1830

........................1837

.....................1848

..................1860

........................1870...................................the 19th century became quite active, but could not sustain this even 50 yrs

.........1883

...............1893

.........1905..................................................the most recent vaguely Maunder-like period lasted 40 yrs (1875-1915)

..................1917

...............1928

.....................1937

........................1947

...........................1957

..................1968

........................1979

........................1989

..................2001..........................................is this the last hurrah of the very regular and active 20th century phase?

Summarizing the above is of course very subjective, but I would say, you can detect three modalities in long-term solar activity here.

The first is like the modern active period, regular strong pulses of activity every 10 to 11 years.

The second is a more moderate period of activity, where the pulses tend to be more uneven and sometimes longer.

The third is weak activity where the Sun almost stops producing sunspots for 30-60 years at a time. These seem to come along every 100-200 years, but the most blatant quiet periods seem to be 200-300 years apart.

In the next post, I will show you something that will blow your mind about cause and effect.

[Roger J Smith]

My research shows that the solar cycle is related to the positions of Jupiter relative to Saturn in the solar system.

Jupiter takes 11.86 years to orbit the Sun, and Saturn takes 29.46 years. It requires 19.86 years for Jupiter to overtake Saturn, so that twice every 19.86 years, the two giant planets are aligned. Approximately ten years after Jupiter overtakes Saturn on the same side of the Sun, it is opposite Saturn in the solar system.

Now, check out this graph of the average sunspot number in each of the 20 year cycle thus implied, from the 1750 cycle to 1989 cycle (these are the monthly and annual sunspot data that exist, before that, it's only a more general indication by years of the peaks).

AVERAGE SUNSPOT NUMBER in each of 20 YEARS in period 1749-1991

(year 01 is 1761, 81, 1801 etc. year 11 is 1751, 71, 91 etc)

01xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx53

02xxxxxxxxxxxxxx42

03xxxxxxxxxx30

04xxxxxxxxx27

05xxxxxxxxxx30

06xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx49

07xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx55

08xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx67

09xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx80

10xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx70

11xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx60

12xxxxxxxxxxxxxx43

13xxxxxxxxxxx33

14xxxxxxxxx26

15xxxxxxxxxx30

16xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx47

17xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx68

18xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx75

19xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx80

20xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx70

Obviously, the solar cycle is pulsing just ahead of the Jupiter-Saturn alignments which have taken place mostly in years 2 and 12 (early part of the period) and 1 and 11 (later part of the period). Let's take them at year 1 and 11 then, the first case is where Jupiter is passing Saturn, so the solar activity peak occurs in year 19 just before Jupiter reaches that alignment. This is what originally (in 1982) suggested the existence of strong S-fields to me, and by implication, strong J-fields. A more detailed analysis of these peaks shows that most of them have a slight secondary after Jupiter passes Saturn in about year 3 or 4, it isn't strong enough to show up in this annual average, but it can be seen on a monthly scale.

The second peak comes in year 9 of this analysis, just before Jupiter is opposite Saturn in the solar system. So whatever is causing the first set of peaks, the effects extend beyond the Sun and are still strong enough to set off the reaction. However, as we know, the polarity reverses for the second set of peaks, relative to the first. This is probably related to this overall effect.

Now, note this interesting qualification. The solar cycle is not guaranteed on this basis. For example, there should have been a peak around 1809-10, but nothing happened there. But that was in a quiet phase when all of the peaks were modest and off-timed according to this predictive scale. The same happens around 1883 to 1905.

So the way this mechanism seems to work is that it keeps occurring regularly for long periods, then it fades out and some secondary mechanism takes over, possibly Jupiter's sole interaction with the Sun because the second order variation that I found in the data was a 12 year cycle that peaks with Jupiter near its March opposition or highest latitude. This may modulate some interaction with the Sun that is independent of Saturn. This makes Saturn the culprit in periods of quiet solar activity -- it clearly isn't doing its part in the Jupiter-Saturn interaction that is usually capable of modulating the solar cycle.

Now was this also going on before the modern data period?

It seems to have been. Look at the active 15th and 16th centuries. Back then, Jupiter was passing Saturn in years ending in 3 (or 4 early in that period). Most of the peaks are in years 1 and 2, or 11 and 12. So back then, the same thing was going on. My overall analysis shows similar results, but I have to factor in that Schove was relying on auroral records so that I might expect the peaks he determines to be closer to J-S alignments (because these peaks are usually 1-2 yrs after solar max).

Finally, as to the weaknesses, there is some correlation with a 171-yr cycle of Uranus and Neptune. The greatest chance of weak solar activity comes 10-40 years after Uranus passes Neptune on this cycle, and another weak trough appears at the mid-point. The next such weakness is due then, because Uranus passed Neptune in the early 1990s.

[Roger J Smith]

Here's an analysis of the period of solar activity.

I copy the list of sunspot peaks but instead of giving the year, I give the period from the previous peak.

..................290 (?)

........................12

...............9

...............10

.........9

.........12

.....................12

.....................10

........................10

...............15

...............9

.........14

.........11

..................9

..................11

.....................11

.........13

..................14

...............11

........................11

.....................10

.........11

.....................10

...............11

...............15

........................10

...............13

.....................10

............12

.........10

...............11

............10

...............14

..................12

...............11

.....................12

.........12

.........10

.....................15

.....................10

.........11

........................10

...............9

........................11

..................11

.........11

..................11

.....................11

.........12

.....................8

........................11

..................10

...............12

.....................10

...............15

.........11

.........9

...............10

........................9

..................12

............14

........................13

........................11

...............12

.........8

.....................9

...............13

...............11

.........11

......14

...............15

...............10

...............10

........................10

............12

........................8

.....................11

........................9

.....................13

............9

..................13

..................12

...............8

........................9

...............17

...............9

...............11

............10

...............10

...............17

...............12

.........8

...............12

...............11

...............5

.........13

............16

........................9

...........................10

..................10

...............9

...............11

......11

............16

............10

............10

............12

......11

......8

............17

.........8

...............14

........................9

.....................11

.....................9

........................10

........................14

.....................9

............10

............13

...............11

..................14

............10

......10

......11

.........15

......10

...8

......12

.....................13

........................9

.....................11

...............12

...............11

..................8

........................9

........................9

............1794 (shoulder of 1787 peak) would be 7, not official, so I skip this one

......14 (would be 7 again)

......15

............14

........................7

.....................11

..................12

........................10

.........13

...............10

.........12

..................12

...............11

.....................9

........................10

...........................10

..................11

........................11

........................10

..................12

One thing that stands out here, if you scroll up and down, is that the more intense activity is almost always 10-11 years apart, but the weaker activity gets more spaced out, or comes in fast bursts that may have been long, weak cycles.

Either way, the one outlier is the period about 200 years before the Maunder, there is quite a scattering of longer cycles there, even though the activity did not weaken that much, it came at longer intervals before finally flickering out to a very quiet half century (where the period is almost irrelevant because these "peaks" were just a few sunspots interrupting long periods of quiet Sun).

Note that it has been a long time since a period greater than 12 years, so this current long quiet spell is not that unexpected statistically.

Note also the unusually fast cycles from 1761 to 1787, nothing quite like that can be seen in any other period. The period here was 8.75 years and I identify a second peak in 1794-95 as the massive 1787 peak slowly declined over a decade.

The Sun apparently could not sustain this pace and took quite a rest from 1798 to 1827.

These large variations in solar activity certainly make one wonder what larger variations the Sun might be capable of, who knows if this 1700 year sample is very representative of the longer period? Perhaps the Sun can get even more active than the 20th century, or go quiet for even longer periods than the Maunder.

[Cookie]

A good read mate, I must admit its a little out of my depth, but I do understand some of it.

[Roger J Smith]

Well (and this applies to everyone on NW) let me know if there's something unclear about this, because it's dead simple stuff for anyone who already knows about solar activity at all.

There is a recognized method for recording sunspot activity, basically it's a numerical index compiled daily, then averaged monthly and annually. An active sunspot peak usually breaks 100 and the 1957-58 record peak had months over 200.

A "moderate" peak may have an annual average around 80 or 90, and a "weak" peak somewhere around 40-50.

Schove just divided the scale into nine categories, ranging from WWW (extremely weak) to SSS (extremely strong).

A quiet Sun period usually takes place between peaks but can last from just a few months to three or more years. For example there was no solar activity worth mentioning from 1809 to 1811. So the sunspot number there is obviously zero.

A more typical sunspot number in quiet months is 5-15.

You can almost always find one or two small spots lasting a few days, even in quiet times.

My theory is that the spots are magnetic signatures of events in Jupiter's and Saturn's magnetosphere, or images of the earth and moon when we are in the loop, or Venus or Mercury for that matter. In other words, Jupiter gets excited by being in the S-fields, starts projecting out strong magnetic disturbances, and the sunspots are those "hit zones" on the Sun from incoming disturbances. The Sun then gets magnetically unstable and returns the favour, and of course that just excites the Jovian and Saturnian magnetic fields further, just like our own.

So this is a sort of interplanetary conversation that turns into an argument, so to speak. It takes a while for everything to get said, then Jupiter is outside the S-fields and there is no major disturbance any more, so the conversation quiets down to a few whispers. But if Mercury moves in front of Venus or the earth, a very minor analogue can develop (in my theory) and small sunspots can show up.

This may all help to explain why there are sometimes non-conforming sunspots in terms of polarity, or unpaired spots. Usually the spots drift across in pairs of opposite polarity.

The period between solar activity peaks averages 10.62 years over the long period, but it's closer to 10 years in the active centuries, and 11-12 years in the quiet periods. This leads me to speculate that the Jupiter-Saturn interaction drives the whole process most of the time, but if that fails to generate activity for whatever reasons, then some background interaction between Jupiter and the Sun takes over and provides a weaker pulse (that must be there all the time but is not that easy to spot when the strong pulses are dominant). And I'm also pointing to the outer planets Uranus and Neptune as participants in some complex solar system magnetic field, with their own contributions that seem to modulate longer cycles than 10-12 years.

Something else worth mentioning here, the "rotation" of the Sun is really the rotation of sunspot groups, perhaps if our understanding of gravitation is not as complete as we think it is, the Sun may actually be a dense metallic object and the visible surface may be its atmosphere of charged particles. And the sunspots may be what Wilson said they were in the 18th century, I believe it was -- holes in that atmosphere like hurricanes on earth, where you can see the darker, metallic surface below. In that theory, which I note is an extension of the gradually weakening atomic binding forces measurable in the 92 naturally occurring atoms through the magnetic phenomena to astronomical sized bodies, you get the following interesting changes to conventional cosmology:

* planets larger than the earth have more mass than we think too, like Jupiter and Saturn, so possibly they are not gas giants after all, but solid objects with thick atmospheres (this might help to explain long-lasting features like the GRS and the very strong magnetic fields observed for them)

* planets smaller than the earth may have even less mass than we think, so that Mars for example could be largely water or ice inside. This would explain why we see giant water-carved canyons on the surface -- asteroid impacts caused a rupture and allowed the internal water to gush out for a few decades or centuries. Hands up, seriously, if you think Mars ever had a rainfall cycle with its puny atmosphere and lack of water sources on the surface. I don't.

* The Moon could be hollow - it could weigh a lot less than we think it does - and its mass ratio to the earth could be 1/1836 which would make the earth-moon system a giant hydrogen atom. From inside a hollow moon, with a 20-30 km crust, you would get a lot of shallow and weak moonquakes, just as we are told is the case. Why would it be hollow? Possibly because it used to contain snow or ice at low density, and these have evaporated out through fissures over the aeons, leaving behind a hollow shell (a giant volleyball, so to speak).

This would leave other planetary satellites similarly different from what conventional physics says they would be like. This makes sense because the smaller ones and many asteroids are known to be snowballs with dust on the outside, so why would the larger ones be that different?

Venus is close enough to the mass of the earth that this theory would make little difference. Mercury could have a less dense interior (it is currently supposed to be almost as dense as the earth).

* This revised gravitation theory also predicts more mass in stars and galaxies, and removes the "missing mass" from the universe -- there just isn't any missing mass in this theory.

To be clear, the value of G is then localized and scaled to the mass of the source. This unifies the gravitational and electro-magnetic realms with a constantly decreasing G with larger mass (actually I think it has more to do with surface diameter times inverse of albedo). Since we already know the product of G times mass from Newton's equations, if you assume G is lower for larger objects, the mass has to be higher. For smaller objects (and atoms have very high values of G if you accept this theory) then the mass must be lower in the astronomical realm. We already know the mass in the atomic realm and you will note if you investigate the actual values that the binding power of a hydrogen atom is greater per unit mass than that of a uranium atom, gradually, the ever-decreasing value of G' as I call it, falls off until it reaches G for the earth. This is a very small fraction of the electro-magnetic force.

Magnetism I understand to be local applications of some intermediate value of G' where electrons are free to obey those intermediate fields that are much stronger than gravitational but much weaker than electo-magnetic on a very small scale.

How to prove this? Easy enough, probe the Moon or Mars and you'll quickly find out.

[Roger J Smith]

I am returning here to the theme of periodicity of solar activity.

It is worth examining in more detail to get a better sense of the rhythm of the Sun over the past 1,700 years.

What I have done here is to average out every consecutive five cycles. So the number that you see here is the average period in years over the five cycles of which the data point is the third of the five.

This of course leaves out the first and last two peaks in the long series because we don't know what the missing numbers are there. Rather than having a very long running list, I have just taken clumps of five, so the first data point here is cycles 3 to 7, then 8 to 12, etc ... and I have changed the graphics to period from intensity ... and I have left out the personal addition of the 1794 sub-peak and not used it in this calculation.

...............10.4

.......................11.2

.......................11.2

.............................11.8

.........................11.4

.......................11.2

.............................11.8

...........................11.6

...............10.4

.................10.6

...........................11.6

...................10.8

.................10.6

......................................12.8

...........10.0

.....................11.0

.....................11.0

...............................12.0

.........9.8

...................10.8

...........................11.6

.............................11.8

.................10.6

.............................11.8

...............................12.0

...............10.4

.............10.2

.............................11.8

.......................11.2

...................10.8

...................10.8

As you can see, the main feature of this series is that it remains fairly steady in the range of 10 to 12 most of the time.

The slightly longer period evident in the first half of the data could be ascribed to just one missing peak (there are two places with separations of 17 years, if only one of those reflected a missing peak, then this difference would be more or less taken out).

The Maunder does not show up here really (it is the 10.4 in the sixth last entry), the way the data lined up, but the only long period in the Maunder was near its end, 12 years from 1693 to 1705, and 13 from then to the resumption of strong activity in 1718. What shows up more is the slowdown in activity before the Maunder -- almost 120 years with an average near 12 years per cycle, mid 16th to mid 17th centuries, and these were not weak peaks but fairly strong ones especially in the first of the two entries.

The Sun is clearly an entity with an irregular pulse -- and who is to say that this past 1,700 years has captued the full range of that variability even in relatively modern times?

The Biblical reference to the Sun going dark for periods of a day or so, may not be as mythological as we suppose.

However, on the other hand, it is interesting that the research by Schove failed to uncover anything between 290 and the mid 17th century that lay outside the boundaries of the past 350 years at either end.

[Roger J Smith]

So then, what's actually happening recently with the Sun?

Here is the up-to-the-minute report on that:

OBSERVED MONTHLY SUNSPOT NUMBERS

1995 24.2 29.9 31.1 14.0 14.5 15.6 14.5 14.3 11.8 21.1 9.0 10.0

1996 11.5 4.4 9.2 4.8 5.5 11.8 8.2 14.4 1.6 0.9 17.9 13.3

1997 5.7 7.6 8.7 15.5 18.5 12.7 10.4 24.4 51.3 22.8 39.0 41.2

1998 31.9 40.3 54.8 53.4 56.3 70.7 66.6 92.2 92.9 55.5 74.0 81.9

1999 62.0 66.3 68.8 63.7 106.4 137.7 113.5 93.7 71.5 116.7 133.2 84.6

2000 90.1 112.9 138.5 125.5 121.6 125.5 170.1 130.5 109.7 99.4 106.8 104.4

2001 95.6 80.6 113.5 107.7 96.6 134.0 81.8 106.4 150.7 125.5 106.5 132.2

2002 114.1 107.4 98.4 120.7 120.8 88.3 99.6 116.4 109.6 97.5 95.0 81.6

2003 79.5 46.2 61.5 60.0 55.2 77.4 85.0 72.7 48.8 65.6 67.2 47.0

2004 37.2 46.0 48.9 39.3 41.5 43.2 51.0 40.9 27.7 48.4 43.7 17.9

2005 31.3 29.2 24.5 24.4 42.6 39.6 39.9 36.4 22.1 8.5 18.0 41.2

2006 15.4 5.0 10.8 30.2 22.2 13.9 12.2 12.9 14.5 10.4 21.5 13.6

2007 16.9 10.6 4.8 3.7 11.7 12.0 10.0 6.2 2.4 0.9 1.7 10.1

2008 3.4 2.1 9.3 2.9 2.9

Notice that we have been near a minimum now for most of 2006, 07 and so far into 2008. This is getting to be a long quiet Sun period by recent standards, however, it is far from unprecedented (yet). The years 1922 to 1924 and 1910 to 1912 had similar quiet periods lasting three full years ... and the period 1808 to 1812 was even quieter than this, although it followed a weaker cycle than the 1999-2002 peak, and was followed by the very weak 1816 cycle.

So while I can see a fair amount of ammunition for the long term quieter Sun theory, the jury is still out on this, although the experts are predicting a weaker peak to follow in 2014. The fact that no upswing has started this close to a J-S alignment is the usual danger signal that regular service is about to end -- for example, the 1870 peak (and back in that era the alignments were late into years 1 and 11) was followed by a weaker peak in 1883 and from then to the 1917 peak the activity was always after the alignment and weak. Similarly, after the 1801-04 flat top peak straddled an alignment, the period lengthened and skipped one opportunity with the weak 1816 cycle, then returned to a more regular pulse again.

Just how regular is this pulse? That's the next topic I plan to pursue here.

[Roger J Smith]

More details on the J-S alignment theory of solar variation

As mentioned previously, the alignments of Jupiter and Saturn occur every 9.93 years, with one of these being on the same side of the Sun, the next one on opposite sides. From my research, both cases seem to be equally capable of producing a sunspot cycle, so the hypothesis becomes fairly simple: Jupiter moves through a disturbed field in the solar system that is created by Saturn, and vice versa, and these disturbed fields extend beyond the Sun so that only an alignment is required to produce the effect, not a mutual opposition.

Now also, note that these field sectors are not necessarily straight-line, in fact from the related weather research, I have noted that they are probably flexed at a slight angle, and they come in pairs, so that the more complex analysis would be that Jupiter moves through a total of four S-fields (and Saturn through four J-fields). However, this consists of two adjacent pairs separated by larger intervals. This probably explains the twin-peak characteristics of many cycles. This is almost always evident if not prominent, a secondary peak usually follows the primary. Why it would not be more random as to which was higher, is not yet clear in my theoretical approach. Perhaps the Sun can only handle so much disturbance before it naturally begins to lose the charge, so to speak, so the second peak just slows down the extinction of the cycle.

However, there are some fairly evident strong secondaries in the data, such as 1862-3 following the 1860 peak, or more recently, the 1972 peak that rivalled 1968.

Now, as I've stressed, this J-S interaction is not quite a regular, predictable process. It seems to fire up for 80-120 years at a time, then weaken, and disappear for intervals. Then a secondary effect seems to come to the fore and produce weak cycles that it probably is doing in the background of the stronger cycles all along, except that now it has the stage to itself.

Let's go back to the beginning of the record and see just how reliable this J-S interaction is. After each solar maximum, I have listed the next or adjacent J-S alignment. As I've stated, these tend to come after the peak but still during its higher activity phase. Going back from the 20th century, these peaks show up in years ending in slightly higher numbers every second century, on the average. So you'll note that the alignments just recently made it to year zero, but were in year one of each decade in the 20th century and part of the 19th, then year 2 in the earlier 19th and most of the 18th, etc etc. Going back almost to the beginning, the alignments on the same side of the Sun take place in the even-numbered decades. The cases where J and S are on opposite sides are in the odd decades (like the 1950s, 1970s etc).

Before about 600 AD the reverse was true. I have also placed an asterisk on those cases that I consider weak solar maxes probably not caused by an alignment. Some analysis of all this will follow:

..................290 (292)

........................302 (302)

...............311 (312)

...............321 (322)

.........330 (332)

.........342 (342)

.....................354 (352)

.....................362 (362)

........................372 (372)

...............387 (382)*

...............396 (392, 402)*

.........410 (412) *

.........421 (422) *

..................430 (432)

..................441 (442)

.....................452 (451)

.........465 (461, 471)*

..................479 (481)

...............490 (491)

........................501 (501)

.....................511 (511)

.........522 (521)

.....................531 (531)

...............542 (541)

...............557 (551, 561) ... possible missing cycle around 550?

........................567 (571)

...............578 (581)

.....................585 (590)

............597 (600)

.........607 (610)

...............618 (620)

............628 (630)

...............642 (640)

..................654 (650)

...............665 (660, 670)*

.....................677 (680)

.........689 (690)

.........699 (700)

.....................714 (710)

.....................724 (720)

.........735 (730)

........................745 (749)

...............754 (759)

........................765 (769)

..................776 (779)

.........787 (789)

..................798 (799)

.....................809 (809)

.........821 (819)

.....................829 (829)

........................840 (839)

..................850 (848)

...............862 (858)

.....................872 (868)

...............887 (878, 888)

.........898 (898)

.........907 (908)

...............917 (918)

........................926 (928)

..................938 (938)

............950 (948)

........................963 (958, 968)

........................974 (978)

...............986 (987)

.........994 (997)

.....................1003 (1007)

...............1016 (1017)

...............1027 (1027)

.........1038 (1037)

......1052 (1047, 1057)*

...............1067 (1067)

...............1078 (1077)

...............1088 (1087)

........................1098 (1097)

............1110 (1107)

........................1118 (1117)

.....................1129 (1127)

........................1138 (1136)

.....................1151 (1146)

............1160 (1156, 1166)*

..................1173 (1176)

..................1185 (1186)

...............1193 (1196)

........................1202 (1206)

...............1219 (1216)

...............1228 (1226)

...............1239 (1236)

............1249 (1246)

...............1259 (1256, 1266)

...............1276 (1276)

...............1288 (1285)

.........1296 (1295)

...............1308 (1305)

...............1319 (1315)

...............1324 (1325)

.........1337 (1335, 1345)*

............1353 (1355)

........................1362 (1365)

...........................1372 (1375)

..................1382 (1385)

...............1391 (1395)

...............1402 (1404)

......1413 (1414, 1424)*

............1429 (1434)

............1439 (1444)

............1449 (1454)

............1461 (1464)

......1472 (1474)

......1480 (1484)*

............1497 (1494)*

.........1505 (1504)

...............1519 (1514)

........................1528 (1524)

.....................1539 (1534)

.....................1548 (1543, 1553)

........................1558 (1563)

........................1572 (1573)

.....................1581 (1583)

............1591 (1593)

............1604 (1603)

...............1615 (1613)

..................1629 (1623, 1633)

............1639 (1643)

......1649 (1653)

......1660 (1663)

.........1675 (1673)

......1685 (1682

...1693 (1692

......1705 (1702 1712*

.....................1718 (1722)

........................1727 (1732)

.....................1738 (1742)

...............1750 (1752)

...............1761 (1762)

..................1769 (1772)

........................1778 (1782)

........................1787 (1792)

............1794 (shoulder of 1787 peak)

......1801 (1802)

......1816 (1812, 1822)*

............1830 (1831)

........................1837 (1841)

.....................1848 (1851)

..................1860 (1861)

........................1870 (1871)

.........1883 (1881)

...............1893 (1891)

.........1905 (1901, 1911)*

..................1917 (1921)

...............1928 (1931)

.....................1937 (1941)

........................1947 (1951)

...........................1957 (1961)

..................1968 (1971)

........................1979 (1980)

........................1989 (1990)

..................2001 (2000)

Now a subjective look through this long record shows that the peaks seem to be stable when they are just before these alignments. Once they cross to the later side, they seem to weaken and quite often skip one correlation before resuming again. I will investigate this further in the next post.

[Roger J Smith]

Further analysis of the J-S interaction from 290 to present:

Here, I divide the whole period of record into 86 periods of 19.86 years that start with the year of J-S alignment on the same side of the Sun (years like 2000, then) ... and into each of these I place the locations of sunspot maxima. There are usually two in each 20-year period. As the 290 peak occurred two years before the 292 alignment, the record starts with it sitting alone in year 19 of the first row:

YEAR 01...02...03...04...05...06...07...08...09...10...11...12...13...14...15...16...

17...18...19...20

................................................................................

..........................................290.........

........................................................................302.....

................................................311.

..................................................................321...........

........................................330.........

........................................................................342.....

........................................................

....................354...............................................362.......

.....................................................

........372.....................................................................

........................387...........................

...................................396..........................................

........................................410..........

..................................................................421...........

........................................430..........

..................................................................441...........

...............................................

.............452................................................................

.............465.....................................

...........................................................479..................

.................................................490.

.........................................................................501....

........................................................

........511..................................................................522

.....................................................

........531..................................................................542

.....................................................

........................................557.....................................

................................567..................

............................................578.................................

..............585.............................

............................................597.................................

......................................607............

.................................................618............................

............................................628......

................................................................................

....642................................................

................................654.............................................

....................665.............................

.................................................677............................

................................................689.

...................................................................699..........

......................................................

................................714.............................................

..............724...................................

.....................................735........................................

...................745........................

.....................................754........................................

........................765..........................

.................................................776............................

.........................................787.........

..................................................................798...........

.......................................................

.......809......................................................................

..821................................................

.......829.................................................................840..

..............................................

...................850..........................................................

...........862.......................................

.................................872............................................

.................................................887.

.......................................................................898......

.................................................907

.................................................................917............

..........................................926.......

.......................................................................938......

......................................................

...................950..........................................................

.....................963............................

...........................................974..................................

.................................................986.

...........................................994..................................

....................1003....................

...............................................................1016.............

......................................................

.....1027..................................................................1038.

...................................................

.....................................1052.......................................

.....................................................

.....1067..................................................................1078.

..................................................

............1088 ..........................................................1098..................

.................................

.......................1110................................................1118.

.................................................

.................1129......................................................1138.

..........................................

..................................1151..........................................

............1160..................................

..........................................1173..................................

...............................................1185

..........................................1193..................................

..........................1202.....................

................................................................................

...............1219...................................

.................1228...........................................................

............1239...................................

......................1249......................................................

............1259....................................

.........................................................................1276...

................................................

......................1288...................................................129

6..................................................

......................1308......................................................

...............1319........................1324.

................................................................................

......1337............................................

...........................................................1353.................

.................................1362..............

...................................................1372.........................

.................................1382...............

...........................................1391.................................

.................................1402........

................................................................1413............

.......................................................

.....................................1429.......................................

....................1439............................

.....................................1449.......................................

..................................1461..............

............................................................1472................

................1480................................

................................................................................

............1497.......................................

.............1505...............................................................

.....................1519...........................

.............................1528...............................................

.....................1539.....................

..................................1548..........................................

.....................1558...........................

...................................................................1572.........

.........................................1581......

............................................................1591................

......................................................

.............1604...............................................................

1615...............................................

........................................1629....................................

............................1639...................

........................................1649....................................

..................................1660.............

................................................................................

....1675.........................................

.........................1685..............................................1693.

....................................................

.........................1705...................................................

.............................1718...................

..................................1727..........................................

.............................1738...................

.....................................................1750.......................

................................................1761.

...............................................1769.............................

.............................1778.....................

..................................1787..........................................

................................................1801.

................................................................................

.....................1816........................

.....................................................................1830.......

..............................1837...................

...............................................1848.............................

................................................1860.

.....................................................................1870.......

........................................................

..................1883..........................................................

1893................................................

..............................1905..............................................

..............................1917...................

...............................................1928.............................

..............................1937...................

.......................................1947.....................................

..............................1957...................

................................................1968............................

........................................1979..

......................................................................1989......

........................................................

.......2001................................................(pres)...............

.pred 2014......................................

[Roger J Smith]

It was not possible to edit the above in the 30 minutes allotted, so here goes again:

YEAR 01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.10.11.12.13.14.15.16.17.18.19.20

........................................................................290....

..................................................302......................311.

..............................................321......................330...

...................................................342..........................

......354........................................362..........................

...372.......................................................387.............

................396.....................................................410...

.............................................421........................430...

..............................................441...............................

.......452....................................................465...............

............................479.............................................490.

..............................................501.............................

......511..........................................522..........................

......531..........................................542..........................

......................557............................................567........

...................................578..........................585.............

..............................597.....................................607.......

...................................618.....................................628..

...............................................642............................

.................654.......................................665..................

....................................677.....................................689.

...........................................699.................................

................714........................................724..................

......................735......................................745..............

................754............................................765..............

.........................776............................................787.....

..............................798..............................................

....809............................................821..........................

....829.......................................840...............................

........850...........................................862.......................

..............872..........................................................887.

......................................898....................................907

................................917..................................926.......

..................................938..........................................

....950.................................................963....................

.....................974..............................................986.

...................994.................................1003....................

......................................1016.....................................

.....1027......................................1038............................

..................1052........................................................

.....1067......................................1078............................

.........1088 .................................1098............................

...............1110............................1118.......................

...............1129..............................1138..........................

........................1151..................................1160.............

................................1173.......................................1185

................................1193................................1202........

.............................................................1219.............

.........1228...............................................1239...............

..............1249..........................................1259...............

.............................................1276...............................

..............1288...........................1296...............................

..............1308..........................................1319..........1324.

.................................................1337...........................

....................................1353.............................1362......

................................1372.................................1382.......

............................1391...................................1402........

...................................1413.........................................

.......................1429....................................1439.............

........................1449..........................................1461.....

...................................1472...............................1480......

...............................................................1497............

.................1505............................................1519..........

.........................1528......................................1539.........

.........................1548..................................1558.............

..........................................1572.......................1581......

.......................................1591.....................................

........1604......................................1615.........................

..............................1629.........................1639................

.............................1649..................................1660........

.....................................................1675.....................

.............1685.............................1693.............................

.............1705..............................................1718............

.....................1727......................................1738............

.................................1750......................................1761.

..............................1769............................1778............

.....................1787.................................................1801.

..........................................................1816..................

................................1830...........................1837.............

.........................1848..............................................1860.

.................................1870..........................................

......1883................................1893.................................

.............1905...........................................1917...............

.........................1928................................1937...............

......................1947....................................1957..............

..........................1968............................................1979..

............................1989...............................................

.......2001....................(pres)................pred 2014.............

Using the above edited graph, one can see how the sunspot maxima generally drift along for a while at 20-year intervals (in two sets of ten years) then start to drift over to the right at more like 12 year intervals until they reset.

This graph still has minor errors that need editing, so the next post will show the final result. Any moderator can eventually delete posts 10 and this one (11) when post 12 is acceptable below.

Edited June 8, 2008 by Roger J Smith

[Cookie]

Well (and this applies to everyone on NW) let me know if there's something unclear about this, because it's dead simple stuff for anyone who already knows about solar activity at all.

thanks for explaing that

[mettalfabrik]

remarkably simalar here http://personal.inet.fi/tiede/tilmari/sunspot2.html

been reading this some time ago ,and i,m pretty well convinced by it

[Roger J Smith]

Blackdown, the study you have cited deals with my secondary cycle of 11.86 years, this author has missed the J-S 10 year cycle. I should point out that I have been working on this since 1982 and have made numerous attempts to publish. It is quite possible that my ideas have leaked out into the astronomy community through any one of seven or eight unsuccessful attempts to publish, and the existence of an 80-page monograph which has been in print since 1994.

I will be fixing up that post above (#11) and reviewing the actual evidence in the long term for the J-S interaction.

[stormchaser1]

Evening Roger

Excellent read as always thanks for sharing

==========================

Off topic here slightly ,

I posted in the Moon phases thread some time ago , about December 12th , which im getting a bit concerned about { i know your very busy , but could you take a quick look at the post i made , and see what your thoughts are please

[Roger J Smith]

I've decided that the graph in post 11 is probably about as close as I can get this information, but in any case, I have gone over the original list of sunspot maxes and J-S alignment years to come up with this count of max years according to position in the 20-year J-S cycle:

1..XXXXXXX J-S same side of Sun

2..XXXXXX

3..XXXXXX

4..XXXXXX

5..XXXXXX

6..XXXXXXXXX

7..XXXXX

8..XXXXXXXXXXXX

9..XXXXXX

10.XXXXXXXXXXXX

11.XXXXXXX J-S opposite sides of Sun

12.XXXXXXXXX

13.XXXXXXX

14.XXXX

15.XXXXXX

16.XXXXXXXXX

17.XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

18.XXXX

19.XXXXXXXXXXX

20.XXXXXXXXXX

Peaks of activity are almost twice as frequent in the 3-4 years before alignments than in the 6-7 years after alignment.

Each of these peaks seems to have a double-peak signal, with a separation of 2 years. Given the number of cycles, this could be a random scattering of cases, but it does match the profile of the modern period to a large extent.

The process identified by averaging annual sunspot numbers for 1749-1991 is more or less identical to the process over the longer period 290 to 2008.

The paper cited by Blackdown above seems to handle the second variable quite well, and shows it to be the 11.86 year orbital cycle of Jupiter, with a maximum near its perihelion. This of course scatters at random in the 19.86 year cycle of J-S interactions. This is clearly the secondary cycle, just consider that the last five Jupiter perihelia fell in 1999, 1987, 1975, 1963 and 1951.

[Roger J Smith]

To illustrate the concept further, that solar activity is modulated by an interaction between Jupiter and Saturn, I have reduced the data to the most basic form, the 9.93-year interval between alignments whether on the same or the opposite side of the Sun. This is accomplished by adding the frequencies in years 1 and 11, 2 and 12 etc:

1..XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX J-S alignment

2..XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

3..XXXXXXXXXXXXX

4..XXXXXXXXXX

5..XXXXXXXXXXXX

6..XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

7..XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

8..XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

9..XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

10.XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

The peak in year ten of this cycle, coming just before the alignments, builds up fairly steadily for about five years. Then it gradually extinguishes for three or four years. This is fairly similar to the experience of the modern period with its more detailed numbers. But clearly the mechanism is not a guarantee of solar activity.

The best way I can state the situation as I understand it from the various analyses is this:

Jupiter interacts with the Sun to produce the solar activity cycle. For Jupiter to be in an excited magnetic state, it is very significant for its field sectors to be interacting with Saturn's field sectors. But this is not a necessary condition for at least some solar activity. There can be weaker cycles from a more direct interaction not involving Saturn at all. And the outer planets Uranus and Neptune may be contributing to some overall complex interaction, where a recent alignment of these planets diminishes the overall activity considerably. Whether this is a legitimate process or some step function that first involves Saturn (weakening its field structure) and then Jupiter, remains undetermined.

I can also state that other research that I did on solar variation shows very small but similar variations when Mars passes in front of either Jupiter or Saturn, or when some of the larger asteroids are aligned with Jupiter. These variations are all on the order of about 2-4 per cent. I am still working on an analysis of monthly sunspot numbers to see if the earth's passage through the J-fields can be detected in small variations in sunspot number. I suspect that by the time you consider events in this inward portion of the solar system, the field sectors are so wide that angular position of any possible interference source would become less relevant.

[Typhoon John]

Roger, do you think that we are likely to see a cooling of the climate in the coming decades due to an extended minimum, especially considering the current lack of sunspots? Or do you think there are other factors at play that will either restrict the amount of cooling observed or kick start solar activity?

Edited June 19, 2008 by fozi999

[Roger J Smith]

I'm leaning towards this view, which Blast from the Past has had longer than most including myself ... although it would take a large reduction in solar activity, I believe, as other correlations within the normal range of activity are pretty tenuous.

Let's just say the Sun is rather overdue for a slowdown in activity on purely statistical grounds, and several experts in the field seem to be saying that a pronounced minimum is now showing itself.

There must be a considerable lag time involved especially for Europe to the east of the Atlantic, so this natural cooling cycle might not really be that evident until after 2012 perhaps.

[jethro]

Roger, saw this and thought of you. It's only an abstract I'm afraid but you might be able to track down the full paper, it was published today.

http://www.publish.csiro.au/nid/138/paper/AS06018.htm