Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Day 16 Discussion


Paul Sherman

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Oh well, at least you're in good position for tomorrow, won't say more because I would like to see the 00z guidance first, but from the earlier maps, I was thinking perhaps south of Brownwood, not that far away. I think you were just unlucky there today, it came quite close to firing up where you were located.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Where abouts have you ended up? I followed a cell East through Asher and it died horribly. Got some good lightning shots to make up for it. I'm now in a field full of glowing insects flying around. It's very cool, although they are very attracted to my laptop screen. They are probably trying to mate with it :angry: Heading to Ada now. Don't know if I'll go further south tonight. I want to get these lightning shots off! :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

We are having Pizza & Beers in Decatur after heading down for the Graham Supercell, as we neared it with daylight still available it came up against my Shield and Died even more spectaculary than my Essex one at home!! At least we are bang in the risk zone for tomorrow i suppose

Paul S

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
We are having Pizza & Beers in Decatur after heading down for the Graham Supercell, as we neared it with daylight still available it came up against my Shield and Died even more spectaculary than my Essex one at home!! At least we are bang in the risk zone for tomorrow i suppose

Paul S

Hmm. too far for me to catch up I think. Probably about 2.5 hours to there....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Hello, I have just seen 12h and 24h panels of the GEM regional.

Looks like the fronts will sag a bit further south overnight, stall and pivot slightly with a cold east wind setting in across parts of OK, n TX and NM with a steady rain up that way.

Higher dew points indicated across south TX so I think perhaps the set-up will be good around places like Brady, Junction and Sonora, but the output indicates heavy activity across eastern TX as well, could be a variety of tempting targets. There has to be better visibility with places like Sonora to Junction, I would think.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Where are you staying in Decatur? Just in case I do get that far down?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

We got the last room at the Holiday Inn, the Best Western, Super 8, Days Inn, Comfort Inn are all full, so we have 3 beds in 1 Room, Ians Farting and Nicks Snoring are dreadful!

Paul S

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Wow, Super-8 in Ardmore is fully booked, witht eh DOW, TIV2, Phased ARray radar on wheels and an assortment of other chasers :angry: This is an expensive parking lot!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

Looking good for today then :angry:

SPC/NOAA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0915

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0119 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 140619Z - 140715Z

SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH TX OVERNIGHT.

A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON.

SUPERCELL NOTED IN VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA/SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 25

MILES SOUTH OF DEL RIO TX AS OF 0610Z APPEARS LIKELY TO CROSS THE

RIO GRANDE INTO SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT HOUR. SCENARIO WILL BE

SUPPORTED BY LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF SOUTHERN ROCKIES

UPPER TROUGH...ALONG WITH AMPLE MOIST/UNSTABLE EASTERLY FLOW IN THE

BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONG DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE

FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND A SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT

INTO SOUTH TX. PRIMARY RISK SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH SOME

TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST GIVEN THE MOIST/LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. A

WATCH APPEARS LIKELY SOON.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Mod (30%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Low (20%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events Low (20%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Low (20%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events Mod (30%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Mod (30%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (70%)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

latest WW from SPC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0920

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0642 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 318...

VALID 141142Z - 141245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 318

CONTINUES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 318 CONTINUES UNTIL 15Z...WITH A RISK OF

DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERN ACROSS WW 318 IN CENTRAL TX IS CURRENT

MCV-AIDED BOW HEAD CIRCULATION NEARING I-35 ABOUT 5-10 MILES SOUTH

OF TEMPLE AS OF 1130Z. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION...A 48

KT GUST WAS MEASURED AT FT_HOOD/KILLEEN AS OF 1052Z. THREAT FOR

ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL CONTINUE IN THE

SHORT TERM WITH THIS STORM EAST OF I-35 AMIDST AMPLE LOW LEVEL

SHEAR/A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...ALTHOUGH A SOMEWHAT MORE

STABLE/RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM PUTS THE LONGEVITY OF THIS

STRONG LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN QUESTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

THESE UNCERTAINTIES AND THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY TORNADO

THREAT SUGGESTS A TORNADO WATCH UPGRADE MAY NOT BE NEEDED...HOWEVER

WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS EARLY THIS

MORNING.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

There's already been a couple of tornado warnings about 150 mile south of Decatur.

Still early morning (7am) and perhaps the lads drank their sorrows after a bust of a day yesterday

and are still flat out..!! Storms are moving in a NEasterly mannner so perhaps when they're up and about

a storm might pass close by.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Apologies if this CCTV footage has already been posted after a tornado hit a car park in Alabama

http://news.bbc.co.uk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

yep its quite a video eh mate, posted it earlier but worth seeing again if jst to remind us how bad things can get. and for the guys to take care when chasing :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...