Day 12 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

In about an hour we will begin the journey to DFW Airport to drop of the guys before we then head east for what looks like a Possible Tornado Day tomorrow. Whilst positioning ourselves later today we could get some action along the way.

Saturdays Risk looks like a Solid one from the Models for Central Arkansas and the SPC Go with a MODERATE Risk

Paul Sherman

[kold weather]

So when are the next tour group coming over then Paul, is it going to be like a quick swap or is there going to be a little period where it'll be just a few of you?

Saturday looking pretty interesting I'll have a better look at that tomorrow morning, probably similar chances as other events over the last 10 days I think, should be plenty of severe storms about I think.

[Nick F]

The next tour team won't join us until around 10 days' time Kold, Tour 2 wasn't booked up, so it's just Paul S, Ian C and I from today onwards. After we drop off the team and say fairwell, we will head east on the I-20 towards and probably into Arkansas to catch some storms and set-up for tomorrow's MODERATE risk.

A big thank you to Michael Fish and all the others that joined us on Tour 1 - everyone gelled and we all had a great time despite alot of 'down time' with no storms to chase.

[Gorky]

Hello, I'm in Canton right now having had a reasonable nights sleep. Still not recovered really from the food poisoning but feelingmuch better than the alst few days. I think I need to move much further south for today's threat, which I think is fairly significant in SE TX. Cape values are through the roof. I'm heading down to aThens to grab a bite to eat and then I'll see what the latest mdoel runs bring. I wouldn't be completely surprised to see a surprise moderate risk for the area later today if it appears the cap will break. That's a big 'if' but the wrf shows some nice supercells forming in a line from Austin to Huntsville at about 0z.

[MAF]

evening Guys, well a week of chasing over, hope you are all keeping well

lets hope week 2 brings some more good chasing and you all stay safe.

whats the plans for the rest of the day?? (location wise)

[Nick F]

We are currently heading towards the SLGT risk area in east central TX, waiting for initiation along the cold front, SPC have issued an MD for the area we are headed too:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0841.html

Will report back later when we get wi-fi.

[NL]

SE texas MD.

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 091926Z - 092200Z

CONVERGENCE ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY/SFC LOW AND CONTINUED

HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED/SCT TSTM

DEVELOPMENT FROM PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU EWD INTO THE HILL

COUNTRY BY 21Z. ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD QUICKLY BECOME

SVR...WITH THE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS/VERY LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY

A BRIEF TORNADO. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY

FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW NEAR JUNCTION EWD THROUGH

THE TX HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR WACO. ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...MODERATE

CINH WAS EVIDENT PER EXTRAPOLATION OF 12Z RAOB DATA AND RECENT MODEL

FCST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...VERY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES /MID-UPPER 90S

AT 19Z/ COMBINED WITH MODEST SFC MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE

AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCT TSTMS DEVELOPMENT

BETWEEN 21-00Z AS CINH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE

IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE EXISTENCE OF WEAKENING CINH /PER OBJECTIVE

ANALYSIS/ OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE SCT MDT CU HAS FORMED. A

FEW MORE HRS OF HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO REMOVE REMAINING CINH

ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. IN ADDITION TO THE

THERMALLY/SFC CONVERGENCE ASPECTS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION...A

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO MAY SUPPORT LARGER SCALE VERTICAL

MOTION. IF ANY TSTM DOES DEVELOP...A MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE

AIRMASS /MLCAPE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG/ COMBINED WITH MODERATE VERTICAL

SHEAR /40-50 KTS/ WILL SUPPORT SVR HAIL/WIND. GIVEN THE EXPECTED

STRENGTH OF ANY TSTM UPDRAFT...MODERATE AMBIENT SFC VORTICITY /INVOF

STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY/ AND MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH THE

CLOUD BASE...A WEAK TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

Beat me to it Nick.!!

Present IR image and mesoscale discussion risk area.

Edited May 9, 2008 by NL

[John Hanrahan]

Hope you get one guys.Here waiting for flights in terminal A, the other guys including Mr. Fish are in an Irish Bar in terminal D. Me Sad! Roll on next year!

[MAF]

We are currently heading towards the SLGT risk area in east central TX, waiting for initiation along the cold front, SPC have issued an MD for the area we are headed too: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0841.html Will report back later when we get wi-fi.

thanks Nick, will track you Guys once you get closer. happy hunting

[MAF]

Probability still not changed from earlier for watch 289

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Low (20%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Low (5%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events Mod (30%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Mod (30%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events Mod (40%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Mod (30%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (80%)

[Rustynailer]

Thanks for the updates folks.

This interesting footage I just happened on a few minutes ago may be of interest ... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7393030.stm

[NL]

That cell just North West of Austin Texas that the lads are aiming for has tops of 51000ft.. and

producing 3.75 inch hail..

[MAF]

latest forecast for the area

Tonight: Isolated showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Some of the storms could be severe. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a low around 73. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Some of the storms could be severe. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 96. South southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

[Blackie]

Guess whose flight from Chicago got cancelled? D'oh! I get to DFW at 10.30 for a flight five hours before the rest of the gang, and will end up arriving back at Heathrow two hours after everyone else having been shunted onto an American Airlines flight. I can't remember which flight John is getting from Chicago, but it could be the same one!

Anyway, really sad to leave today. A big thank you to both Paul Sherman and Paul Michaelwhite for all the driving, and to Nick and of course Michael Fish for all the expert guidance in getting us to the right places at what should have been the right time. And to everyone else for making it such a fantastic and enjoyable experience. I am currently in Chilis Too in Terminal 3 at Chicago O'Hare, with ,y flight due to take off in about 50 minutes. I am having serious withdrawal symptoms already. Mind you, I saw they have a vodka called Skyy on the menu, so I decided to have a Skyy chaser with my Corona Extra. It seemed onlynatural after watching the skies and chasing for the past 10 days...

Hope the rest of the group had better luck with their flights than me, and look forward to hearing reports from Paul, Ian C and Nick from their extended chase.

I am still sorting through my photos, so will post some more galleries from the rest of the trip over the next few days. I did take quite a few, apparently.

Hope everyone at home has been enjoying our exploits. I will watch with envy when the next groups fly out to join the guys.

Thanks again to everyone on Storm Chase 1 for such a fantastic experience. And for anyone even remotely thinking of joining one of next year's chases, go for it. You will not regret it.

Hi Nick

I see you are online, so I guess you have found your bolthole for tonight. Where are you? Did Ian call the Hampton Inn about his video camera? I hope he gets it back. That would be a real bummer if he has lost it.

Good luck guys and happy storm chasing for the rest of your trip. Hope you catch some motherships and the odd tornado or two.

[Nick F]

That cell just North West of Austin Texas that the lads are aiming for has tops of 51000ft.. and

producing 3.75 inch hail..

We aren't headed that way :lol: , we made a decision to go no further than Palestine SE of DFW and decided that the cap would hold and the cell NW of Austin would be the only one going today, way too far SW to travel and it would put us out of position for tomorrow's MDT risk over NE TX and AR.

Currently just booking in to a hotel in Longview just off the I-20 east of DFW.

[MAF]

well lets hope the flights dont cause any more delay for you Blackie and the others flying back. bet you have all had a great, if tiring, time. look forward to the debriefs once you are home and rested.

Nick and the rest of the Guys, hope you are getting a good rest and ready for the moderate forecast, keep safe and hope you get a good chase tomorrow :lol:

out look for saturday

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1246 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2008

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF ERN OK...NERN

TX...AR...NRN LA...NRN MS AND NW AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN

PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

[Blackie]

Seems my flying jinx is in perfect working order today. My American Airlines flight is now delayed so I won't get in until 11am tomorrow...asuming it isn't delayed any more! :lol:

I hope John isn't on this flight, otherwise he may not make his connection to Cork. And that would seriously Swearing AGAIN him off.

Any word on Ian's video camera Nick?

Edit: I see the swearing filter is still working then! :lol:

Edited May 10, 2008 by Blackie

[Nick F]

Very hot and humid in northeastern Texas, in the car earlier it was 94F with dew points around 69F here in Longview:

A few pics of Downtown Dallas which we drove past earlier on today:

A warning for anyone thinking of chasing eastern TX, it's a nightmare, thick with trees and hills, glad there were no storms today to chase!

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Peter

Cannot believe you are getting back later than the rest of the guys, so glad you enjoyed it, we enjoyed every single minute of the Trip with a fantastic group of guys. Ian has phoned the Hotel in Sherman and someone has handed in the Camera and Tripod so we will drop by their in the next few days, just about to go out to a Seafood Restaurant and will be fully charged for tomorrow.

Paul S

[MAF]

mind the shrimp!! dont want any dodgy tummies mid chase :lol: :lol:

Paul S, in case you are getting homesick, temps in London are set to hit 80°F/27°C today (saturday) but that will probably be higher in a few parts

[pottyprof]

Been great to see the reports and the footage peeps.. :lol: Best NW chase to date..

[MAF]

oh and that building in the second picture looks just like canary wharf

Edited May 10, 2008 by Mick

[grab my graupel]

Yes I second that Potty...It certainly has been very good indeed :lol:

Hasn't the first ten days flown by though...I cant believe that the tour 1 chasers are returning.

It seems kind of sad in a way.

Anyway thanks for the latest update guys, and once again....stay safe

Brian

[MAF]

Yes I second that Potty...It certainly has been very good indeed :lol: Hasn't the first ten days flown by though...I cant believe that the tour 1 chasers are returning. It seems kind of sad in a way. Anyway thanks for the latest update guys, and once again....stay safe Brian

it is sort of sad isnt it Bri, but as you and Paul (potty) say the reports/pic/discussion has certainly been great. lets hope the remaining days give the team some great stuff to report on and that they enjoy themselves doing so :lol:

[grab my graupel]

Just thought I would show you all this taken from tonights storm thread, so you know what you are missing :lol:

Would like to inform everybody that South Wales Police are declaring the storm as a major incident. Many roads in the Pontarddulais, Gorseinon and Cross Hands are/were severely flooded, several houses struck in Pontarddualis (Fire brigade on site) and accidents occured on the roads.

I was out myself as soon as the storm hit. Rain intensified to a level I can only describe as exceptonal. Roads flooded immediately, visibility reduced to zero and lightning blinding.

Worst flooding in the Swansea area hit Gowerton, Gorseinon and Pontarddulais. Search and rescue helicopter was hovering over the Loughor area until it was stood down 20 mins ago, unsure what has happened as of yet.

A48 at Bolgoed Road, Pontarddulais is flooded and was unpassable at 00:20. I was out in the worst weather, and have never seen traffic police driving at 20 miles an hour on a dual carriageway - that is how bad it was. Police with lights on just to warn people to take it very very slowly.

Have noticed a fire in the distance, not sure what this is yet.