Day 8 - Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

At last an active pattern upcoming for the Chase Team, looks like Culminating in a Possibly Severe Outbreak on Wednesday 7th May (Stu's Birthday )

So for Monday we will be handily placed and should still be able to visit the SPC On the Monday Morning

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0232 AM CDT SAT MAY 03 2008

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN

KS...NWRN/WRN OK AND THE ERN HALVES OF THE TX/OK PNHDLS...

...SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...

QUASI-ZONAL UPR FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY BETWEEN

A HUDSON BAY LOW AND THE CUT-OFF SYSTEM INVOF BAJA NORTE. A

RESULTANT BELT OF MODEST FLOW WILL CARRY WEAK AMPLITUDE AND

DIFFICULT-TO-TIME IMPULSES ACROSS THE TOP OF A BROAD SUB-TROPICAL

RIDGE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL

GUIDANCE ROUGHLY AGREE THAT A WEAK IMPULSE WILL APPROACH THE CNTRL

PLAINS MONDAY AFTN/EVE.

IN THE LWR LVLS...A DIFFUSE FRONT/WIND SHIFT SHOULD BE IN PLACE IN

WAKE OF A LATE WEEKEND DISTURBANCE...SITUATED FROM THE CNTRL GRTLKS

SWWD ACROSS IA INTO PARTS OF KS. A DRYLINE WILL MATERIALIZE FROM

SWRN KS SWD INTO W TX MONDAY AFTN/EVE BEFORE MOISTURE MAKES A SURGE

W DURING THE EVENING INTO THE HIGHER PLAINS.

MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD ALONG THE SRN

HIGH PLAINS AND NEWD ALONG THE WIND SHIFT INTO THE CORN BELT REGION

THROUGH MONDAY EVE. STEEPEST MID-LVL LAPSE RATE PLUME COINCIDENT

WITH THE STRONGEST LOW-LVL WARMING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE WRN

PERIPHERY OF THIS MOISTURE FROM W TX NWD INTO SWRN KS WHERE MLCAPES

OF AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTN. LESS CAPE IS

EXPECTED FARTHER NE ALONG THE WEAK FRONT INTO PARTS OF IA/NRN MO.

AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK

DISTURBANCE APPROACH THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTN...CONVECTIVE INITIATION

SHOULD OCCUR VCNTY THE DRYLINE/FRONT OVER SWRN/SCNTRL KS AND

POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS THE TX/OK PNHDLS. STRONGER RIDGING/WARMER

TEMPERATURES ALOFT FARTHER S ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL MAKE FOR A MORE

UNCERTAIN INITIATION FCST INTO SW TX. 45-50 KTS OF WLY VERTICAL

SHEAR AND MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS

WITH PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO TSTM CLUSTERS

MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO SCNTRL KS AND PARTS OF NW/WRN OK.

Paul Sherman

[Cookie]

Hopefully things will pick up for you guys

[Stu]

Monday (as things stand right now) looks to be Extreame SW Kansas or possible up slope into S.E. Colorado - as things stand I am quite bullish about Monday.

[Paul Sherman]

I am really happy with the Outlook for Chase Team 1 at the moment. Possible Upslope tomorrow before the Slight Risk on Monday, another risk on Tuesday and then the bigger risk on Wednesday. This is what it should be like for the guys on Chase 1, lets hope they are knackered by Thursday and drooling over the pictures.

Paul S

[Roger J Smith]

I don't foresee much action on Sunday, until late evening at least, then a major peak of energy should hit south-central TX between San Antonio and San Angelo late Sunday night into Monday morning, with a heavy rainfall event possible, energy peak at 12-13z is 07-08h local time and should result in further action of remnant cells drifting north towards Lubbock to Big Spring by mid-day. I think it will be Tuesday before much action develops as far north as CO and KS. Rather sketchy details at present though. Worth a sober second look tomorrow.

[NL]

Slight risks for Mon/Tues with the main threat of organized severe storms still on for Wednesday, doubt rising that the storm

system moving in will weaken. :lol: .

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

[NL]

The team are on the road heading for Liberal Kansas a 140mile journey

from Amarillo Texas for the slight risk tomorrow, Tornado chances remain slim

at this point but severe thunderstorms and big hail are the order of the day.

Edited May 4, 2008 by NL

[kold weather]

Yep a slight risk over KS tomorrow, I don't think there will be nuch about for chasers in general today however. Still moderate cape levels over KS tomorrow, decent helicity values at 3km however its really lacking at lower levels. Not much shear at lower levels though the low level jet does strengthen during the night time hours which may help to increase the risk a little during the early night-time hours if you dare to risk and chase in the dark...

[Nick F]

Just sat in Liberal KS atm, after doing Dorothy's house (Wizard of Oz fame) for Michael, we will head north soon and stay somewhere in Wern Kansas - ready for tomorrow's SLIGHT risk. 82F here currently and a few cumulus popping up - slight chance of an early morning elevated storm as the LL Jet cranks up overnight.

Will update later.

[Rob]

cool sounds like you guys are having a great time

[Roger J Smith]

I am somewhat optimistic about your chances tomorrow. The tropical air right now is confined to the southern tip of Texas with a rather diffuse warm front spreading cloud from around Del Rio east to around Waco. Within this cloud mass, some heavy thunderstorm activity should develop late tonight in response to J-field energy peak and lunar-geomagnetic peak (see you'll have something to tell them at SPC). This could lead to some very heavy rainfalls somewhere around Brownwood or San Angelo, then this activity would probably tend to die out and be redistributed northwards along the developing dry line into the eastern part of the TX panhandle, nw OK and eventually sw KS. Meanwhile, a less active front would be analyzed M in the old-school (ask Michael) which separates cooler Canadian air from warm, dry Pacific air modifiying to cT over eastern CO. This front will tend to edge eastward and become a focus for TRW+ development around 18-21z as J-field energy rotates around and phases with distant energy peaks well east of the region.

This should lead to cell development that looks like this tomorrow afternoon in west central KS ...

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I have sketched that out just to remind myself to check the structure tomorrow, but with this sort of slow-moving or almost q.s. cell development, you get good opportunities for wall or shelf clouds in the large structure and isolated tornadic cells in the smaller structures.

Where would this appear? Really not too confident on that because the J-field system is extended beyond its usual range so everything is rather out of focus and sketchy with it. At a guess, near Hill City or just southwest of there.

Good luck with it, but Tuesday, a much higher energy peak develops in returning waves that would be similar to the Friday Arkansas event, over the KS-OK border region or into OK. I think Tuesday may turn out pretty good even though Wednesday is looking more impressive on the maps.

By "returning waves" I am referring to J-field energy that is rotating against the overall atmospheric flow, and peaking fairly early in the day, so that some long-lasting linear or squall line type features should develop, according to the statistical profile. Would be looking for this around Enid, Pratt, and south towards OKC and Clinton OK. Obviously subject to revision closer to the time.

Could be a very active week then.

[Cookie]

Great post Roger

[Stu_London]

Looking good for 3/4 days of activity now which is good after several 'quiet' days.

Fun could start as early as 6am

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Guys

We are overnighting in the Holiday Inn at Garden City (Ks) where we are in a prime position for tomorrows severe event. Before all that we have a chance of overnight elevated Convective Storms as well, looking like a slight jog east if at all and await for the Storms to fire before Chasing at nice speeds, looks like SW-NE Storm Motions for 05-05-08. Main threats look to be Large Hail and damaging wind gusts with LP Supercell structures easily attainable, you never know there may be a surprise Tornado in there but I am not holding much hope for tubes tomorrow.

Paul S & Team

[NL]

Slight risk has now been extended into western/central texas,

only 2% chance of a tornado, as Paul S has said perhaps a tube

in one of the severe cells but with weak LLJ looking doubtful, however the

LLJ is set to increase late afternoon /evening.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[NL]

Storms already breaking out just NE of the teams location.

Producing 1.50"-3.00" hail.

Edited May 5, 2008 by NL

[Paul Sherman]

We tried to get both today, the overnight MCS & Todays Risk, but we were about 50-70 miles just to the South in the end, as daybreaks out of my window here I can see some Overshooting tops to my North East

The team are raring to go today and the Outlook from the SPC Has them really excited as well, bigger Tornado Threat tomorrow and also on Wednesday.

Paul S

Next 3 Days

[pottyprof]

Nice Satellite picture..

Looks like things are kicking off nicely now..

SvrTstormWarning - 05/1330Z

WWUS53 KDDC 051258

SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS

758 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2008

KSC051-135-165-195-051330-

O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-080505T1330Z

TREGO KS-ELLIS KS-NESS KS-RUSH KS-

758 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM CDT

FOR NORTHWESTERN RUSH...NORTHEASTERN NESS...SOUTHWESTERN ELLIS AND

SOUTHEASTERN TREGO COUNTIES...

AT 756 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE

HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS

LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF CEDAR BLUFF...MOVING EAST AT 28 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

CEDAR BLUFF...

YOCEMENTO...

RURAL RESIDENCES OF NORTHEASTERN NESS...NORTHWESTERN RUSH...

SOUTHEASTERN TREGO AND SOUTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTIES.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE

SEEK A STURDY SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS

PASSED.

LAT...LON 3896 9936 3869 9946 3868 9947 3867 9947

TIME...MOT...LOC 1258Z 292DEG 24KT 3879 9959

$$

JOHNSON

WUUS53 KDDC 051247

SVRDDC

KSC051-135-165-195-051330-

O.NEW.KDDC.SV.W.0029.080505T1247Z-080505T1330Z

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS

747 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

SOUTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

NORTHWESTERN RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

NORTHEASTERN NESS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

SOUTHEASTERN TREGO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

* UNTIL 830 AM CDT

* AT 746 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES

NORTHEAST OF CEDAR BLUFF...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 29 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

CEDAR BLUFF...

ELLIS...

YOCEMENTO...

RURAL RESIDENCES OF NORTHEASTERN NESS...NORTHWESTERN RUSH...

SOUTHEASTERN TREGO AND SOUTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTIES.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE

SEEK A STURDY SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS

PASSED.

LAT...LON 3898 9935 3856 9951 3881 9989 3894 9981

TIME...MOT...LOC 1247Z 293DEG 25KT 3883 9968

$$

JOHNSON

[Gorky]

I stayed the night down in the panhandle hoping for a more local chase and it looks like I might get it. I'm probably going to head down past Hereford maybe even as far as Clovis, NM and set up there for the day. Storms should fire reasonably early at about 3:00pm-4:00pm local time I hope. There should be some good photo oportunities with anything which stays fairly discrete, but tornado chacnes are very slim

[dallas]

Warming will invade the Great Plains in a big way early in the week. Warming together with moistening ahead of Western low pressure will give rise to outbreaks of strong thunderstorms early and midweek. The first of the thunderstorms will happen Monday, most likely in the afternoon and evening. A few widely-separated strong to severe thunderstorms will arise over an area from west Texas to northern-central Kansas or southern Nebraska. Any such storm could unleash large hail and damaging wind. A higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be likely further east Tuesday and Wednesday as the parent, instigating, low pressure leaves the Southwest for the midsection. (post fron Accuweather)

Hope there will be something for the team

[Nick F]

Hi all, just getting ready to head off soon, going to head back SW towards OK Panhandle, maybe as far as Dalhart TX area, some nice clear skies that way, further south than that more in the way of high cloud over Wern TX Panhandle and Ern NM, so I think somewhere in the Nern TX Panhandle/OK Panhandle area will be ideal, though by nice to see the LL moisture improve a bit before we arrive in that area. Some big towers going up earlier near here in Garden City from the outflow of the storms over west central Kansas currently. Clear to the south where we'll head though.

This is mostly looking big hailer supercell day with a very low 2% tornado risk, storm motions should haopefully be slow too.

[NL]

SPC have upgraded the tornado risk to 5% along New Mexico Texas Border.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[Gorky]

I'm continuing on my way down to Clovis right now. Very happy with the latest SPC update, especially as Clovis wasn't even in SPC's 15% risk when I chose taht area this morning. I see one of chaser on Spotternetwork heading down this way so far. Hello Stu!

[John Hanrahan]

Top of de mornin to ya, we've driven more dan tirty tree moiles dis mornin and are now in de little town of Liberal. We'll be jigging our way down to Dalhart shortly.

[NL]

Mesoscale discussion for severe thunderstorms for teams target area.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/