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Days T & 1 & 2


Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Without reference to budget, would suggest Wednesday target east of Denver CO, then reposition to near Wichita KS for Thursday, risk zone in SPC more likely to be too far east than too far west if any error develops. I feel that the evolution and track of this system can be prone to model error of up to 6 hours in terms of false acceleration. However, the dynamics even somewhat slower would force tornadic storms in eastern half of Kansas after 18z Thursday and the max risk for me would be near Chanute KS. Friday you would need to be in Iowa or western Illinois, a real budget-buster.

Let's see how the 00z progs play this, but Wednesday does look worth going for to me, I think it will explode around 22z when the dynamic cold front reaches the Denver area. Would suggest Limon CO to Deer Trail CO as positioning.

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Hit 93 here in the panhandle right as I was doing a 6 mile trek! Only 3 litres of water on me and that was gone 4 miles into it. The last 2 miles were a nightmare with me almost wanting to ring the sweat out of my shirt for more moisture :) The views made up for it though. I'll be posting more pics shortly in my other Canyon related thread. Will make my decision tomorrow morning on where to go. I had earlier convinced myself to go no further north than Goodland for Wednesday as I want to be in Wichita by early afternoon on Thursday to give me time to reposition of the mid-late afternoon show. Models have changed a little since then so I'll need to revise my plans before I go to bed tonight.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Nice to see you are having Fun Nathan, the big fun begins on Thursday Though.

How are all your Comms going in the Car, is the Avis Deal going well as others may do this next year and you are the guineu pig on this ??

Paul S

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Posted
  • Location: cotswolds
  • Location: cotswolds

Hi Paul,

Glad you all arrived safely. looking forward to hearing your experiences on thursday, which seems promising at the moment. you're missing nothing back here, london was very damp and cool yesterday and today may see a little thundery activity. give me a massive steak, several beers, 30 degs and a supercell any day frankly. say hi to the other paul and i hope you all have a wild time out there. keep safe LS

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

No change to risk assessment from 00z model run, confidence in this eastern Colorado outbreak is not the highest but if not there, could see one or two isolated severe cells further east or northeast before end of daylight. I am more confident that severe storms will erupt around sunset and move east through the first part of the overnight. For Thursday afternoon eastern third of Kansas looks good, in fact eastern Nebraska and southeast SD probably under a fairly severe risk too, personally I would be leery of n.e. OK because of climatology favouring s.e. KS, just think of Tulsa as a place that gets very heavy rain a lot more than tornadoes, Wichita the other way round. But first time for everything I suppose.

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