April C.E.T

[mk13]

I'll punt for 8.8C, slightly milder than average.

[kold weather]

It'll be interesting to see whether the northern blocking the models are showing has any real lasting power, if it has then below average is a possiblity, however obviously we are at the time of year where you can have pretty strong warm shots by the end of the month with CET days getting into the 14-15C range.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I am going for 7.7C

It will probably be warmer in the second half but I think the CET could well be a good 1-2C below average come the middle of April. It may well end up being a warmer version of some of those wintry 1970s Aprils.

[summer blizzard]

I have decided to lower my prediction, but only slightly, to 8.9C, 0.8C above average.

[phil nw.]

My punt for April is 7.9C please.

[James M]

At the last minute I will lower my guess to 8.7°C

[Rollo]

7.8c for me.

[Megamoonflake]

i'm going for 8.0C please

[Hiya]

7.7

[DR Hosking]

After 30 seconds of thought I will go for 7.6c

[Matty M]

I'll go for very cold start warm end and finishing up @ 7.8c

[Snowyowl9]

Looks like we`re heading for an April not seen for 8 to 10 years so 7.7c for me.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

8.2 please (0.1 above average)

SNOW-MAN2006

[ukmoose]

Last call to avoid late entry penalty points. 2 hours 59 mins and counting.

41 6.0C: Timbo

34 6.2C: SLEETY

11 6.4C: Optimus Prime

63 6.8C: snowingman

81 6.9C: Terminal Moraine

88 7.0C: Polar Continental

14 7.1C: mark forster 630

97 7.3C: stewfox

13 7.4C: The PIT

9 7.5C: snowmaiden

38 7.6C: Kentish Man

59 7.6C: Jonnie G

77 7.6C: BARRY

110 7.6C: DR Hosking

36 7.7C: sundog

40 7.7C: Stu London

51 7.7C: eddie

103 7.7C: Thundery Wintry

109 7.7C: Hiya

112 7.7C: Snowyowl9

29 7.8C: richarddx7

87 7.8C: The calm before

96 7.8C: Rollo

111 7.8C: Matty M

30 7.9C: snowsure

43 7.9C: Norrance

46 7.9C: Duncan McAlister

49 7.9C: davehsug

50 7.9C: reef

67 7.9C: beng

68 7.9C: Atlantic Flamethrower

76 7.9C: kold weather

83 7.9C: LadyPakal

105 7.9C: phil n.warks

31 8.0C: Polar Gael

61 8.0C: silpknotsam

71 8.0C: Cymru

92 8.0C: Steve Murr

99 8.0C: Mr Maunder

108 8.0C: Megamoonflake

37 8.1C: ukmoose

58 8.1C: BLAST FROM THE PAST

16 8.2C: StormMad26

54 8.2C:Michael Prys-Rob

74 8.2C: damianslaw

80 8.2C: azores92

100 8.2C: mountain shadow

113 8.2C: SNOW-MAN2006

17 8.3C: SteveB

66 8.3C: Mr Data

73 8.3C: IRON-BRU

10 8.4C: Timmead

12 8.4C: NorthernRab

39 8.5C: osmposm

52 8.5C: Potent Gust

70 8.5C: ghrud

79 8.5C: Calrissian

90 8.5C: Jack Wales

7 8.6C: NorthantsSnow

60 8.6C: Stargazer

1 8.7C: mark bayley

69 8.7C: DAVID SNOW

91 8.7C: Bottesford

106 8.7C: James M

27 8.8C: chionomaniac

33 8.8C: Anti-Mild

45 8.8C: Somerset Squall

101 8.8C: mk13

25 8.9C: Snooz

72 8.9C: RedShift

104 8.9C: summer blizzard

3 9.0C: calum

56 9.0C: jimben

75 9.0C: RAIN RAIN RAIN

35 9.1C: Don

78 9.1C: shuggee

65 9.2C: derby4life

26 9.4C: La Nina

62 9.7C: Roger J Smith

4 10.0C: Stephen Prudence

28 10.1C: Mike W

82 11.5C: Craig Evans

Moose

[Nick H]

9.5C

[ukmoose]

41 6.0C: Timbo

34 6.2C: SLEETY

11 6.4C: Optimus Prime

63 6.8C: snowingman

81 6.9C: Terminal Moraine

88 7.0C: Polar Continental

14 7.1C: mark forster 630

97 7.3C: stewfox

13 7.4C: The PIT

9 7.5C: snowmaiden

38 7.6C: Kentish Man

59 7.6C: Jonnie G

77 7.6C: BARRY

110 7.6C: DR Hosking

36 7.7C: sundog

40 7.7C: Stu London

51 7.7C: eddie

103 7.7C: Thundery Wintry

109 7.7C: Hiya

112 7.7C: Snowyowl9

29 7.8C: richarddx7

87 7.8C: The calm before

96 7.8C: Rollo

111 7.8C: Matty M

30 7.9C: snowsure

43 7.9C: Norrance

46 7.9C: Duncan McAlister

49 7.9C: davehsug

50 7.9C: reef

67 7.9C: beng

68 7.9C: Atlantic Flamethrower

76 7.9C: kold weather

83 7.9C: LadyPakal

105 7.9C: phil n.warks

31 8.0C: Polar Gael

61 8.0C: silpknotsam

71 8.0C: Cymru

92 8.0C: Steve Murr

99 8.0C: Mr Maunder

108 8.0C: Megamoonflake

37 8.1C: ukmoose

58 8.1C: BLAST FROM THE PAST

16 8.2C: StormMad26

54 8.2C:Michael Prys-Rob

74 8.2C: damianslaw

80 8.2C: azores92

100 8.2C: mountain shadow

113 8.2C: SNOW-MAN2006

17 8.3C: SteveB

66 8.3C: Mr Data

73 8.3C: IRON-BRU

10 8.4C: Timmead

12 8.4C: NorthernRab

39 8.5C: osmposm

52 8.5C: Potent Gust

70 8.5C: ghrud

79 8.5C: Calrissian

90 8.5C: Jack Wales

7 8.6C: NorthantsSnow

60 8.6C: Stargazer

1 8.7C: mark bayley

69 8.7C: DAVID SNOW

91 8.7C: Bottesford

106 8.7C: James M

27 8.8C: chionomaniac

33 8.8C: Anti-Mild

45 8.8C: Somerset Squall

101 8.8C: mk13

25 8.9C: Snooz

72 8.9C: RedShift

104 8.9C: summer blizzard

3 9.0C: calum

56 9.0C: jimben

75 9.0C: RAIN RAIN RAIN

35 9.1C: Don

78 9.1C: shuggee

65 9.2C: derby4life

26 9.4C: La Nina

115 9.5C: Nick H

62 9.7C: Roger J Smith

4 10.0C: Stephen Prudence

28 10.1C: Mike W

82 11.5C: Craig Evans

I'll do the final list tomorrow.

Moose

[damianslaw]

The thing to note is that there hasn't been an April that was at least 1C below the average since 1989, infact there hasn't been an April that was at least 0.5C below the average since 1989.

Compare that to the other months and their last occasion they were at least 0.5C below the average (1971-2000 averages)

January: 2001

February: 2006

March: 2006

May: 1996

June: 1991

July: 2007

August: 2007

September 1994

October: 2003

November: 2005

December: 2005

Interesting statistics there, had thought perhaps April 1994 came in below 0.5 degrees, but yes nearly 20 years since we've had a notably cool April. If the northern blocking holds well into the third week the chances of a particularly cool April could occur.

Also note how its been a while since we had a May or June that was at least 0.5C below the average.

For simplicity, just using 1971-2000 averages, the last time April and May were both at least 0.5C below was in 1983

[PB22]

I'll go for 8.1C please.

[Mammatus]

8.1C please Mainly High Pressure dominated month with a below average first half and above average last third leading us into a very warm and sunny May!

Mammatus

[Vince]

9.6 to get two Aprils in a row ............................................not a carrot

[northeast]

I think 10c will be average

[SNOWPLOUGH]

7.9c please

[Glacier Point]

Another traditional type month on offer I think.

Lots of cold polar air spilling south and some northerly and NE'ly vectors will influence the pattern. Aprils with weak La Nina and final break up of the polar vortex tend towards a cold maritime type pattern with a weak SW'ly type vector and prolonged unsettled phases. Some potential also towards a warm final few days.

SSTAs to our SW are between 0.5 and 1 C above where they should be.

Top value therefore with all SW flow = somewhere in the region 9.6 C. Bottom value with greater emphasis on the colder N'ly and NE'ly vectors (as likely for week 2) = 7.4 C. Mid point = 8.3 C which I'll go for.

8.3 C please.

[Stratos Ferric]

Wild stab

8.8

Under the wire...

[Joneseye]

Ooops late again...

8.5 for me please...