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Mark Bayley

April C.E.T

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With only 8 days to go i think its time for the April C.E.T thread :)

The average is 8.1c (1971-2000)

I think i will go for 8.7c however i have a feeling its going to be a below average month ;)

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9.1C, 1C above average for me please...

I may make a change around the 28th when all the data is avaialable to me.

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10.0°C a very mild month but not as mild as last April

Mark despite the snowfest this month is really struggling to go below average - good luck with trying to get April below average!

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I really do hope it is below average. Getting sick of every month being above average. But in my heart i think it is probably going to be above again. Hope i'm wrong!

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I'm going to go for 8.6°C. I would be surprised if April is below average, but I would be equally surprised if it was massively above average. (i.e. 1.5C+)

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10.0°C a very mild month but not as mild as last April

Mark despite the snowfest this month is really struggling to go below average - good luck with trying to get April below average!

I live in hope ;) Your probally right though a below average month looks unlikly. I don't know what made me think it was likely. Maybe the resent snow has got to me :) . However i don't think its going to be anywere near as mild as last April, Maybe 1c -1.5c above, tops i think. Im going to stick with my 8.7c for the time being

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OK, I am going to plump for 7.5 - below average. Also happens to be somewhere around the figure we will require for a sub-10 rolling 12 months, so its a good place to plump myself.

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8.4'C. I reckon a bit of a warm spell, battered back by some very cold weather for April, followed by above average temperatures. An inversed pyramid trend.

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Since my last attempt was miles to high I'll go for the same figure 7.4C for April.

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i dont want a below average april! the only months i want below average are nov-feb! but asking for the impossible there, 7.1oC for me, dominated by low pressure to the south and high to the north :yahoo: the type of weather that will make me wanna move to tenerife lol

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9.1C, 1C above average for me please...

I may make a change around the 28th when all the data is avaialable to me.

Then why don't you leave your prediction until that date then? I don't want to be critical but constant swapping and changing and furthermore the 28th is only 4 days away, it doesn't do your creditibility much good. :yahoo:

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Hmm i think ill go for somthing. Ok then 8.somthing. Fine!!

8.2c :yahoo:

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Around average

8.3c

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It's a bit early for my wild guess yet, but here's the list for April so far...

11 6.4C: Optimus Prime

14 7.1C: mark forster 630

13 7.4C: The PIT

9 7.5C: snowmaiden

16 8.2C: StormMad26

17 8.3C: SteveB

10 8.4C: Timmead

12 8.4C: NorthernRab

7 8.6C: NorthantsSnow

1 8.7C: mark bayley

3 9.0C: calum

2 9.1C: summer blizzard

6 9.3C: James M

4 10.0C: Stephen Prudence

Quite a range that already. Can't see anyone realistically going lower than OP's 6.4, but Stephen's 10 may not be the top spot. Then again, what is the lowest CET for April and when was it I wonder?

Moose

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Quite a range that already. Can't see anyone realistically going lower than OP's 6.4, but Stephen's 10 may not be the top spot. Then again, what is the lowest CET for April and when was it I wonder?

Moose

4.7 in 1701 and 1837

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4.7 in 1701 and 1837

Blimey, that was quick!

Thanks very much SM. It's hard to imagine April being below 6 again, let alone 5.

Moose

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Blimey, that was quick!

Thanks very much SM. It's hard to imagine April being below 6 again, let alone 5.

Moose

Yeah, it would be half a degree below the 10 year Feb average!

Below 7 is unlikely in this world as it is.

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A question for Kevin Bradshaw;

Many thanks for your information on Marches that had colder second halves than the first, and 2008 almost looks set to join the list. I would now be grateful if you could list the years where April had a colder CET value for the second half than the first half since World War 2. I do not know the last time, but I believe that it is many years since it happened.

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The coldest few April's since 1970:

post-94-1206364301_thumb.jpg

The warmest few April's since 1970:

post-94-1206364313_thumb.jpg

April's below the 71-00 average since from 2007 backwards:

post-94-1206364434_thumb.jpg

April's above the 71-00 average since from 2007 backwards:

post-94-1206364454_thumb.jpg

Based on that you'd expect an above average April although a below average one is not impossible - even in the current climate.

Record cold is extremely unlikely but record warmth is still pretty unlikely too.

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A question for Kevin Bradshaw;

Many thanks for your information on Marches that had colder second halves than the first, and 2008 almost looks set to join the list. I would now be grateful if you could list the years where April had a colder CET value for the second half than the first half since World War 2. I do not know the last time, but I believe that it is many years since it happened.

Since WWII: 2001, 1999, 1997, 1995, 1991, 1985, 1981, 1974, 1972, 1969, 1965, 1960, 1959, 1956, 1954, 1946

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8.9oC

thanks

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