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Weather Warnings

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The same old subject comes up time and time again.

what I want to get to the bottom of with in this thread is why some areas get weather warnings and not others.

Yesterday highlights my argument perfectly.

I've got used and given up that we on the western isles and north western Scotland dot get weather warnings that often from strong winds winds unless its sever cause its common place. which I agree with.

Yesterday met check issued a weather warning for north and west Scotland as well as north east england. metcheck are possibly the best out of the 3 I tend to use for weather warnings. metcheck, met office and net weather. ( BBC I count as same as met office)

It took net weather till today to realize a weather warning. and met office nothing as am aware of.

below taken from multi cellular thunderstorm

72 mph gust at Newcastle recently!
Past hour gusts (mph): Fri 22 Feb 00:00 GMT

Foula (13 m) 75 mph

Newcastle AP (81 m) 73 mph

North Rona Island (98 m) 73 mph

Lerwick (84 m) 66 mph

Bingley (267 m) 62 mph

South Uist Range (4 m) 58 mph

Boulmer (27 m) 55 mph

Stornoway (15 m) 55 mph

Spadeadam II (286 m) 54 mph

Kirkwall AP (21 m) 50 mph

and taken from tucco.

Absolutely disgusted in the failure of the Meto/BBC to give any sort of warning to the strength of wind yesterday evening. Wind increased rapidly after around 1700z, lost power by 1900z, back on this morning. Winds must have been gusting between 70/80 mph. Windiest here this winter. No warning. Not good enough.

so its not just me having a rant.

also below taken from nigels post

when the wind was at its peak , a roof blew off a house in Gateshead, OLD DURHAM ROAD was closed for quite while , because of the road was blocked, Debris scattered all over the place, { not sure if anyone was injured or not!

Nigel

Imagine if someone had been killed, not everyone uses the internet, but people that do may check for weather warnings and check to see if going very windy.

I really honestly think theirs a dived between north and south regarding weather warnings. I've seen weather warnings issued for a lot less winds.

if winds are going to cause damge and possible loss or injury then their should be relvent weather warnings issued.

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I admit N-W should have got something out earlier for the winds - but we have been following the situation fairly closely since yesterday afternoon and the UKMet progs of 50kts (57mph) gusts max over Scotland did not at the time meet a criteria for an alert of gusts of 60-70mph which goes for anywhere in the UK not just the south.

N-W forecasters do not have a north-south divide bias in their alert criteria - I certainly don't even though I'm living in the SE, if somehwere in the UK looks to meet our alert criteria - we will issue a watch and/or alert regardless of where it is in the UK.

Metcheck may have made a call early this time, but I've noticed plenty of times when we (Netweather) have had well justified alerts/watches out when they haven't. At the end of the day, it was very windy - but not exceptionally so, we could have got something out earlier - but we are all voluntary have jobs and lives outside of N-W and don't always watch what the wind speeds are constantly.

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I admit N-W should have got something out earlier for the winds - but we have been following the situation fairly closely since yesterday afternoon and the UKMet progs of 50kts (57mph) gusts max over Scotland did not at the time meet a criteria for an alert of husts of 60-70mph which goes for anywhere in the UK not just the south.

N-W forecasters do not have a north-south divide bias in their alert criteria - I certainly don't even though I'm living in the SE, if somehwere in the UK looks to meet our alert criteria - we will issue a watch and/or alert regardless of where it is in the UK.

Metcheck may have made a call early this time, but I've noticed plenty of times when we (Netweather) have had well justified alerts/watches out when they haven't. At the end of the day, it was very windy - but not exceptionally so, we could have got something out earlier - but we are all volutantary have jobs and lives outside of N-W and don't always watch what the wind speeds are constantly.

fair play nick :clap:

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At the risk of perhaps revealing comments Paul M the owner may not approve of I really think it is time that some on here realised just how time and effort the forecasters and Paul M put into trying to keep everyone informed and warned.

Yesterday this from Paul M at 1547

I was meaning more in terms of the location - ie tomorrow looks like it's further south and could affect glasgow and surrounding areas.

following on chats between various forecasters about did it warrant an Alert for rain/winds.

1715 from Nick F

Just havin a look at the aviation forecast for Scotland for tomorrow - and the surface winds predicted don't quite meet our criteria of sustained speeds of 50 mph and gusts of 60-70 mph, the forecast has sustained winds for hills and coasts of upto 35 knots (40 mph) and gusts upto 50 knots (57 mph):

So I'm not sure it's worth an alert in that respect -especially for a less populated area like the N and W, worth monitoring though and if winds look like reaching the criteria - than maybe we can issue a flash alert?

Winds are gusting to 59 mph across Skye and Benbecula so almost criteria level now.

from Paul B at 1856

So a watch then perhaps for the winds tomorrow? Can I leave you to it Nick as I'm about to do the summary and am off out shortly.

Jackone at 1925

Looks like winds in the order of 55-60mph for the Central belt of Scotland around midday tomoorw, according to GFS 12Hz. Marginal in my view for any watch, if they were few miles north of this area we not even be considering it a those winds speeds.

Paul B at 2251

I'll check conditions early in the morning when I get up and see how its looking with regards to any possible watch/alert for tomorrow.

Paul B at 0654 this morning

Morning all, currently winds are gusting in the region of 45-55mph across Scotland, which isn't quite up to our alert criteria. They may strengthen a little more during the morning, so worth watching, but I think at this stage we should be ok.

Nick F at 0759

Looking at the TAFs for large cities in Scotland, Dundee and Edinburgh are forecast gusts to 50kts (57 mph) - just short of the criteria level:

Gusts in the western Isles and Shetland Isles however forecast gusts to 60 kts (69 mph) - but as a sparsely populated area, I don't think it's worth an alert, but worth keeping an eye on wind speeds during the day.

Nick F at 1253

Have issued a flash alert for strong winds for Nern areas this afternoon, sorry didn't get anything up earlier but been busy all morning at work.

This type of conversation goes on whenever one or more of the forecasters feels that the charts, not just GFS, ECMWF Met O etc, perhaps warrants at least some discussion on the forecasters forum.

Now if that is not trying to do the best within the time constraints of full time jobs I don't know what is.

John Holmes

wearing his official hat

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I have to agree with Cookie and i am quite surpriced why there was no warnings for the winds today, surely if the same winds hit Exeter/London you would know there will be warnings. Also the strong winds with heavy showers(snow on the hills) will lead to dangerous driving conditions.

I think the Met Office do have a slight north/south divide, remember that warning for 5cm of snow in the South and guess what happened nothing/very little has fallen.

To be fair Bob Johnson(Local ITV weather forecaster) did give a warning about the strong winds in yesterday evening's forecast.

John - no-one can fault the efforts of the NW forecasters on here but i think there could be a slight argument that warnings should not depend how strong the winds are. I mean today for example there was plenty of heavy showers packing into Scotland and of corse snow on the hills and with 50MPH gusts surely this should be enough for a warning despite the winds not meeting the alert criteria. The Met Office at least should have warnings out for the highlands.

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i think warnings for strong winds was definately needed today

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but we are all voluntary have jobs and lives outside of N-W and don't always watch what the wind speeds are constantly.

For those of you moaning, please bear this in mind. We're sorry if you feel we have failed today, but no-one is perfect, and its all too easy for people to start criticising AFTER the event.

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Imagine if someone had been killed, not everyone uses the internet, but people that do may check for weather warnings and check to see if going very windy.

I really honestly think theirs a dived between north and south regarding weather warnings. I've seen weather warnings issued for a lot less winds.

if winds are going to cause damge and possible loss or injury then their should be relvent weather warnings issued.

They certainly should have had a warning out, especially the Met Office. I think when the wind is strong enough to blow over lorries then there should be a warning, and today theres been a few go over in NE England.

That poses a danger to life for the lorrie drivers and others on the roads so surely we should be warned.

As the national meteorological service for the United Kingdom, the Met Office has a vital role in public safety.

We warn the community of severe or hazardous weather which has the potential to cause danger to life or widespread disruption of communications or transport through our National Severe Weather Warning Service. But what should you do when we issue a warning?

In this case I would only criticise the Met Office, they are the pro's and should show more consistency.

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some of you may be interested to read what NW use as our criteria for wind Alerts

I cannot find the definitive version but this is what I suggested when they were being discussed probably 2-3 years ago.

Note the difference suggested about urban areas and the more exposed regions and WHY that suggestion

wind= mean speeds in excess of 50mph with gusts 60-70mph or more. This possibly needs to be looked at from two angles.

1) in the exposed regions of the country and at high level this is no great problem. Most people and local authorities are used to dealing with this wind strength on a routine basis each year. I would suggest for those areas that, perhaps, we think in terms of mean speeds 60-70mph and gusts greater than 70 mph.

2) the major conurbations need the first warning limit I have suggested.

Yes we were wrong in two main areas, NE England due to marked lee effects, that I would suggest is the only error.

see below, courtesy of Wx Online the highest gusts since 2400 last night

Peak gusts [mph]: February 22, 2008

Sorting: North - South A - Z Max - Min

Foula (13 m) 75 mph

Fair Isle (57 m) 70 mph

Stornoway (15 m) 70 mph

Kirkwall AP (21 m) 69 mph

Lerwick (84 m) 69 mph

South Uist Range (4 m) 69 mph

Spadeadam II (286 m) 68 mph

Benbecula (6 m) 67 mph

Inverness/Dalcross (9 m) 66 mph

Sumburgh Cape (5 m) 66 mph

Belfast/Aldergrove Airport (68 m) 65 mph

Islay/Port Ellen (17 m) 65 mph

Loftus Samos (159 m) 65 mph

Tiree Island (12 m) 65 mph

Prestwick (27 m) 63 mph

Leeming (32 m) 63 mph

Wick (36 m) 63 mph

Machrihanish (10 m) 63 mph

Redesdale Camp (212 m) 63 mph

Boulmer (27 m) 62 mph

Topcliffe (28 m) 62 mph

Bingley (267 m) 62 mph

Lossiemouth (6 m) 61 mph

Kinloss (5 m) 60 mph

Dishforth (33 m) 60 mph

Newcastle AP (81 m) 60 mph

Church Fenton (8 m) 60 mph

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In this case I would only criticise the Met Office, they are the pro's and should show more consistency.

I would also blame the MO, and the Met Office is not that consistant, surely they should have at least had a watch out and if the winds are not going to be bad as first thought then no need for any warnings. Also any warning should not of been depended on how strong the winds are, like i said today there was showers in Scotland(snow on the hills) so dangerous driving conditions was certainly a possibility. However the pros are all humans and we all make mistakes.

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here is the link for the criteria for the UK Met O

you will note that it requires speeds of > 70mph to trigger an alert inland for wind

as you can see above that was not the case to the lee of the Pennines, ie ne England

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/gui...y_warnings.html

nor was there a need in my view to issue any warning for snow coupled with the wind for the major routes.

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I would also blame the MO, and the Met Office is not that consistant, surely they should have at least had a watch out and if the winds are not going to be bad as first thought then no need for any warnings. Also any warning should not of been depended on how strong the winds are, like i said today there was showers in Scotland(snow on the hills) so dangerous driving conditions was certainly a possibility. However the pros are all humans and we all make mistakes.

I wouldn't blame anybody. The MetO are consistant and rarely make mistakes within the 48 timeframe.

Our Net-weather forecasters do a great job keeping us informed and 99.9% of the time cover every potentially severe/damaging weather event.

Welldone guys, keep up the great work.

Mammatus

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here is the link for the criteria for the UK Met O

you will note that it requires speeds of > 70mph to trigger an alert inland for wind

as you can see above that was not the case to the lee of the Pennines, ie ne England

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/gui...y_warnings.html

nor was there a need in my view to issue any warning for snow coupled with the wind for the major routes.

The strongest gusts up here were last night, it must have been just before midnight because its not on todays records.

Past hour gusts (mph): Fri 22 Feb 00:00 GMT

Foula (13 m) 75 mph

Newcastle AP (81 m) 73 mph

North Rona Island (98 m) 73 mph

Lerwick (84 m) 66 mph

Bingley (267 m) 62 mph

South Uist Range (4 m) 58 mph

Boulmer (27 m) 55 mph

Stornoway (15 m) 55 mph

Spadeadam II (286 m) 54 mph

Kirkwall AP (21 m) 50 mph

Even the Metcheck warning didn't mention NE England for last night, only for later today.

I would agree about the lack of snow warning. If you were going to issue a warning everytime there was wintry showers over the Scottish hills it would get rediculous!

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I swear I just posted in here??

just a thanks to john and nick for explain everything very well.

The average joe dosent get to see everything that goes on but dose help to understand more :)

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The Met Office is expecting very strong winds across northern parts of the UK during Tuesday, with severe gales in places. The strongest winds are likely to affect Southern and Central Scotland, along with the northern parts of Northern Ireland and the far north of England. Here, westerly winds are likely to gust to 70 mph during daylight hours, steadily easing during the evening. Disruption could occur to transport and power supply networks. This warning will be updated at around 1000 on Tuesday 26th February unless superseded by Flash Messages.

Issued at: 1005 Mon 25 Feb

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...t_warnings.html

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I DIDN'T KNOW. SO THANKS B)

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I see there's even a page (318) at the mo' about this

coming storm on ITV Teletext ..

'Major storm to batter UK with gales'

That's well in advance too.

BL

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thats another good point their Beverley Lass.

why dose their seem to be a lot more confidence and more early warnings about this storm?

is it cause its likely to affect a wider area then most this winter?

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Its more to do with the pretty good model agreement between all models for a storm to affect the UK early next week, which is quite unusual really.

Netweather now have a Advanced Weather Watch out: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...;type=alerthome

thanks for responding so fast. thought it was pretty rare.

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The Met Office is expecting an intense low pressure system to move east across the UK during Monday 10 March, bringing severe gales and potentially damaging gusts across some areas. Southerly winds are expected to strengthen during the first part of Monday but then turn westerly later. Gusts of 60 to 70mph are expected but there is a possibility of 80mph gusts over exposed coasts and hills. Much depends on the exact track of the low centre but at this stage, parts of Wales and the southern half of England are considered at greatest risk. Disruption could occur to transport and power supply networks and there may be damage to buildings. This warning will be updated around 1030 on Saturday 8 March 2008.

Issued at: 0930 Fri 7 Mar

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...t_warnings.html

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The Met Office continues to expect an intense low pressure system to move east across the UK during Monday, bringing severe gales and potentially damaging gusts across some areas. Southerly winds are expected to strengthen during the early hours of Monday to give severe gales, with an additional swathe of westerly severe gales to follow later on Monday into the early hours of Tuesday. Gusts of 60 to 70 mph are expected but there remains a possibility of 80 mph gusts over exposed coasts and hills. Much depends on the exact track of the low centre but at this stage, parts of Wales and the southern half of England continue to be considered at greatest risk. Disruption could occur to transport and power supplies and there may be damage to buildings. This warning will be updated around 1100 on Sunday 9th March 2008.

Issued at: 1057 Sat 8 Mar

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...t_warnings.html

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Oh I see my location is now well inside the 40% risk zone.

I wonder just how bad it will be close to the coast here. Eeek.

BL.

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The Met Office continues to expect an intense low pressure system to move east across the UK during Monday, bringing severe gales and potentially damaging gusts across some areas, more particularly the west and south of England and Wales. Southerly winds are expected to strengthen during the early hours of Monday to give severe gales for a time, coinciding with the morning rush hour in some areas. An additional swathe of severe westerly gales will follow through the morning and afternoon, principally affecting southwest England and the south coast of England. Gusts of 60 to 70 mph are likely with the possibility of 80 mph gusts on exposed coasts and hills. Disruption to transport and power supplies is possible and there may be damage to buildings and trees. In addition high waves and flooding may affect coastal areas in the south. This warning is likely to be superseded by FLASH messages.

Issued at: 1110 Sun 9 Mar

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...t_warnings.html

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