Ozone depletion and Climate

[jethro]

Yes it appears that ozone depletion and repair theories could just be falling apart and with that its link to climate as depicted by the IPCC. I don't think we are far away from a scientifically provable theory that cosmic rays effects ozone depletion which in turn is effecting our ocean sinks. This leaves CO2 at the end of the chain and not the start and I think that O2 depletion's correlation with climate and the lack of current understanding of ocean sinks all points this way not the other way around.

Indeed HP, I think the tail's been wagging the dog in our understanding thus far.

Personally I'm hoping the Sun continues along a quiet path, a seriously suppressed cycle 24 would be perfect timing. Not because I want temps to drop to prove the CO2 theory wrong; more that we've never had a seriously quiet period to study with modern technology before. I think we'd be surprised at some of the new findings which would be revealed.

[Gray-Wolf]

Why not a 'bottom up' approach? Could not the 'splendid isolation' that Antarctica exists in ,with it's curtain wall of the Circumpolar wind/current and it's Katabatic winds sweeping all before them, leading to tropospheric cooling (esp. with the strengthening of the Circumpolar current/wind [driven by higher global temps]) giving us the record low temps on the ground (that folk have been dropping in over the past 2 years) leading to a general cooling of the whole atmosphere above (giving the stratospheric cooling).

Could we possibly be looking a a complex mechanism with many inputs leading to varied results.

We know the 'link' between chemicals and Ozone depletion but we know of other 'links' that lead to Ozone depletion so could we not be looking at a Mosaic of complementary influences leading to the scale of the problems in the Antarctic springtime?

Can we really envisage a point where we can remove our 'global influence' from such a closed system???

[HighPressure]

Can we really envisage a point where we can remove our 'global influence' from such a closed system???

Hi GW

Although we are normally to be found on different sides I don't disagree with much of what you say, but don't take my stance as believing that humans do not play a role because I believe they do and a significant one at that. I also agree that there maybe many complex components involved in what is seen as current warming, but where we disagree, is that I do not believe human reduction in CO2 emissions will have the desired effect. That does not mean we should not look to cut emissions it just means I believe that this in itself is not the answer and is a fraudulent message without genuine scientific grounding.

[J07]

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/...81007102853.htm

Well ,there we have it. 2nd biggest on record.

Has prompted this:

Issued at 12:31pm 02-Oct-2008

BURNT BEFORE CHRISTMAS

UV indices have been added to the www.metservice.com website weather forecasts for 42 places around New Zealand.

"Now that the days are longer than the nights, and the sun is higher in the sky" commented MetService Weather Ambassador, Bob McDavitt, "UV levels are rising faster than the temperature."

For many people exposure to a UV reading of 6 or more for longer than 30 minutes is all it takes to get sun burnt. "These levels are already happening, but the recent swing back to cool temperatures, along with cloudy and windy days, people may not be feeling the warmth that normally accompanies sunlight. This is especially so on the ski fields, where UV is higher and there is more reflected light."

Mr. McDavitt added that sun protection will be more important that normal this summer. "A drop in the solar wind and increase in cosmic rays have combined this year with pollution to produce the largest Ozone hole ever observed over Antarctica. This hole is likely to break up in November and December and may lead to higher than normal UV levels over New Zealand."

The UV levels found on the MetService website provide a timely reminder to slip, slop, slap and wrap, even during the cool days of spring.

Not actually the largest ever, but I don't like the sound of higher than normal UV over NZ in Nov/Dec, it's already way too high then. UV levels of 7 have been recorded at Wellington recently, which is typical for the time of year, but it's scary if we start seeing 11-14s earlier than normal.