2008 Atlantic Hurricane Competition - Discussion thread

[Somerset Squall]

I believe the trend with global warming is more activity year on year ? (I appreciate there can be the odd blip)

Well there are so many conflicting theories it's hard to say really

[Iceberg]

I don't think anybody has really cracked hurricane prediction yet. By and large if you go for an above season in strength and numbers you won't be far from the true, the real fun with the hurricane season is that you never know what on earth is going to happen, you could have an LLCC decoupling and a CAT 3 to a TS in 24 hrs or some high octane fuel content taking it to a CAT 5.

Basically anybody's opinion is equal valid, a boring 3 to 4 months until it starts though.

[Cat 5]

Reminder: Deadline for entries is 23:59 on the 31st march!!

Keep those entries coming in.....!

I will have to have a think about how to judge who 'wins' - not quite sure how establish how has the best predictions... I will have a think but if anyone has any ideas then please leave them here!

[stewfox]

Reminder: Deadline for entries is 23:59 on the 31st march!!

Keep those entries coming in.....!

I will have to have a think about how to judge who 'wins' - not quite sure how establish how has the best predictions... I will have a think but if anyone has any ideas then please leave them here!

As a whole, the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season produced a total of 14 named storms, including six hurricanes, two of which became major hurricanes.

Ill go for 12 named storms including 5 hurricanes of which one will become a major hurricane :lol:

Could we use that as a basis ??

http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/nov2007/2007-11-30-01.asp

[Somerset Squall]

Basically anybody's opinion is equal valid, a boring 3 to 4 months until it starts though.

There are other cyclone basins and the South Indian Ocean as certainly been very interesting over the last month or so with some very rare and unusual events, certainly fills the long void of waiting for the Atlantic basin to ramp up again.

And I fully agree with the first half of the sentence.

Ill go for 12 named storms including 5 hurricanes of which one will become a major hurricane :lol:

Remember to post your prediction in the other thread aswell Stew or it may not be counted. :lol:

[summer blizzard]

11 named storms

7 hurricanes

3 major hurricanes

A fairly average season n the offing given the latest duo-monthly anologues, though ace will probably be slightly above average.

[Cat 5]

1 Hour 30 mins to go... any last minute entries?

[Cookie]

dosent look like it

[Cookie]

not long to go now and for one I cant wait!!

[kold weather]

Yep certainly isn't far away, just over 5 weeks till the start of the season!

In the past we've seen storms starting to develop from this time onwards, though its still fairly uncommon to see any storms before May 25th.

Edited April 25, 2008 by kold weather

[Somerset Squall]

Under 2 weeks to go now to the official start to the season, have you decided how the competition is going to be scored yet Cat5?

[Cat 5]

Somerset Squall - thanks for reminding me!

So this is the 5 areas in which we are predicting.

Date first named storm is formed:

Last storm dissipated:

Name of strongest hurricane:*

Number of Hurricanes (Cat 1+):

Number of major Hurricanes (Cat 3+):

I suggest point scoring as follows...

Date first named storm is formed: If you get this bang on then you score 50 points. Every day out that you are you will get two points deducted until you reach 0 points for this prediction.

Last storm dissipated: As above.

Name of strongest hurricane: 20 Points for exact. 15 points if you are 1 out (either way) and 10 points if 2 out (either way). 0 points if 3 or more out.

Number of Hurricanes (Cat 1+): 20 points if you are exact. 10 points if you are with 3. 0 points if you are 4 or more out.

Number of major Hurricanes (Cat 3+): 30 points if you are exact. 15 points if you are within 2. 0 points if you are 3 or more out.

How does this sound??

[Somerset Squall]

Yeah, I reckon that sounds good. Maybe the last one might need changing, most people would proabably manage to get a least 15 points there as there isn't usually a high number of major hurricanes. Perhaps 5 points for within 2? Then it would make an exact major hurricane prediction more worthy. It's pretty easy to be within 2 for a major hurricane prediction. Just a suggestion, it's up to you

Edited May 20, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

Somerset Squall - thanks for reminding me!

So this is the 5 areas in which we are predicting.

Date first named storm is formed:

Last storm dissipated:

Name of strongest hurricane:*

Number of Hurricanes (Cat 1+):

Number of major Hurricanes (Cat 3+):

I suggest point scoring as follows...

Date first named storm is formed: If you get this bang on then you score 50 points. Every day out that you are you will get two points deducted until you reach 0 points for this prediction.

Last storm dissipated: As above.

Name of strongest hurricane: 20 Points for exact. 15 points if you are 1 out (either way) and 10 points if 2 out (either way). 0 points if 3 or more out.

Number of Hurricanes (Cat 1+): 20 points if you are exact. 10 points if you are with 3. 0 points if you are 4 or more out.

Number of major Hurricanes (Cat 3+): 30 points if you are exact. 15 points if you are within 2. 0 points if you are 3 or more out.

How does this sound??

I trust you mate, some im just going to agree that you running it fairly

[Cat 5]

Yeah, I reckon that sounds good. Maybe the last one might need changing, most people would proabably manage to get a least 15 points there as there isn't usually a high number of major hurricanes. Perhaps 5 points for within 2? Then it would make an exact major hurricane prediction more worthy. It's pretty easy to be within 2 for a major hurricane prediction. Just a suggestion, it's up to you B)

I suppose the way I scored it is because this will be one of the last opportunities to score points I would want a fair few to be on offer so the leaderboard can change right up to the last storm. I do think that less points should be on offer than for predicting the number of Cat3+ so will change it slightly. Thanks for the feedback.

What I do think needs changing though is the reward for getting exactly right the amount of Cat1+... this is harder and only scoring 20 is a bit harsh. So I will change that to 30 if exact and 15 if within 3.

Revised scoring is as follows;

Date first named storm is formed: If you get this bang on then you score 50 points. Every day out that you are you will get two points deducted until you reach 0 points for this prediction.

Last storm dissipated: As above.

Name of strongest hurricane: 20 Points for exact. 15 points if you are 1 out (either way) and 10 points if 2 out (either way). 0 points if 3 or more out.

Number of Hurricanes (Cat 1+): 30 points if you are exact. 15 points if you are with 3. 0 points if you are 4 or more out.

Number of major Hurricanes (Cat 3+): 20 points if you are exact. 10 points if you are within 2. 0 points if you are 3 or more out.

[Cat 5]

Interesting.

The average number of Cat1+ hurricanes as predicted by Netweather is 10. Colorado State University predict 8. Average number of Cat3+ as predicted by Netweather is 4, CSU also predict 4.

I have a full spreadsheet breakdown if anyone would like a copy. I may have to send you it via external email as I am struggling to post in any legible fashion on here.

PM me with your email address if you would like a copy.

Edited May 21, 2008 by Cat 5

[kold weather]

Cool that sounds good way of measuring it all!

Just for curiousity I'll also say I expect 14 tropical storms and an accumulated cyclone energy total of 139...though could be easily 40-60 higher then that I feel...3-4 strong Cape Verde systems this season with 2-3 becoming powerful majors. Greatest landfall threat IMO is from Carolinas northwards, S/C Florida (esp early and late season...) and also the Yucatan and S.Mexico...

[Cookie]

I wont forget this from last year!!

Hurricane Dean

Currently it’s 2:37am central time in the Yucatan Peninsula and many in the area are about to experience some of the worst weather conditions on the planet. Major Hurricane Dean is now just miles off the coast and heading straight for the Chetumal / Majahual, Mexico locations. Hurricane Dean is packing with of 160mph with higher gusts making him a category 5 storm. The latest recon data moments ago had a pressure reading of 909 MB…26.84 inches. This is a extremely dangerous hurricane and many are about to see the full force of a category 5 in the dark overnight hours.

[Cookie]

So its begun!

with Arthur

[Roger J Smith]

Yes, check my forecast and let your jaw drop (again) ... I'm like Daphne Moon here, "a little bit psychic" ...

Arthur is actually the remnants of Alma, the first Pacific TS which hit Nicaragua on Thursday, crossed the land mass and interacted with an easterly wave to form Arthur off Belize. Arthur may not survive crossing the Yucatan but if he does, he may then move slowly northwest into the central Gulf.

[Cookie]

dam you're good

[Roger J Smith]

I'm sure it's dumb luck, Cookie monster, there are so many ways a seasonal hurricane forecast can go wrong, we haven't even finished numbering them yet. But watch this space ...

[kold weather]

Greatest landfall threat IMO is from Carolinas northwards, S/C Florida (esp early and late season...) and also the Yucatan and S.Mexico...

I'm liking Arthur and the last part of that sentence, its the exact sort of system that I thought could be a threat to S.Mexico regions. now we just will have to see for S/C Florida and the Carolinas!

I'm still happy with my prediction at the moment though if the monsoon trough present in the Caribbean doesn't move on out then there could be real problems....we've already seen Alma and Arthur form out of it don't be surprised to see another possibly form out of it in the next 10-14 days...the most extreme case where we've had a logn lasting monsoon trough in the Atlantic basin was 2005 and remember both how many extreme hurricanes we had and also how many tropical storms were formed.

Edited June 1, 2008 by kold weather

[Cookie]

I didn't know that. thanks kold

[Roger J Smith]

There's a pretty high correlation between frequency of tropical storms and temperatures across inland central and eastern N America. The summer of 1995 was hotter than average by 1.5 to 3 C degrees from Kansas to Ontario. I guess that when summers are a bit cooler than average in this zone, the jet stream must be further south than normal, and this would imply that the subtropical highs are further south and weaker too. That leads to partial or as in 1914 total extinction of the hurricane formation zone of subtropical ESE flow from Africa to the Caribbean. That zone typically expands into the Bahamas to south of Bermuda in August and September, but if it is then just suppressed to the Caribbean you can have a season with only Caribbean hurricanes.

Of course, frequency is not the whole story -- Andrew was obviously the first storm of 1992 and started up around 23 August. The season did not produce a lot more storms either. But that one was more than enough.